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Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 18




Using our OddsShopper tool, we will take a look at some of the best expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 18 of the NFL Season. OddsShopper allows you to see which picks have the best expected return on investment as well as where you can find the best line for each pick. Making sure to get the best line available is crucial, which makes OddsShopper an important weapon in any sports bettor’s arsenal.

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Best Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 18

Also be sure to check out OddsShopper’s matchups page, breaking down all the data for each game on a given slate.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | Best Line: BetMGM

The Packers are hosting the Lions in a meaningless Week 18 clash. Green Bay has already clinched the NFC’s top seed, while Detroit has been out of playoff contention since sometime in March. Green Bay’s status as the No. 1 seed is relevant here though. They’ve already announced that they won’t be resting their starters, in an effort to avoid “ring rust” with a three week layoff. There’s no guarantee Aaron Rodgers & Co., play the entire game, but a half or so seems reasonable.

Naturally, OddsShopper thinks the NFC’s best team should be favored by more than 3.5 against the conferences worst team. Even if the Packer’s first unit only plays half the game, that could be enough to run up an insurmountable lead against the Lions. Backup quarterback Jordan Love is also likely to be highly motivated if and when he gets his chance. There’s questions about his status as Rodgers’ successor after a poor performance this season. This bet has a 71% expected win percentage (xWIN) and a 21% expected return on investment (xROI) thanks to a generous +100 line at BetMGM.

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Cincinnati Bengals (+6) | Best Line: FanDuel

This bet is popping as one of the best in OddsShopper this week. It has an xWIN of  71% and a 19% xROI. Unlike the Packers, the Bengals will be resting quarterback Joe Burrow in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Browns. However, Cleveland will also be without their starting quarterback, as Baker Mayfield is set for shoulder surgery. It’s unclear which other Bengals starters will rest this week, but quarterbacks are obviously the most important to the line. Like the Packers, Cincinnati would be a big favorite were this game to matter to both teams.

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While the Bengals are certainly hurt more by the loss of Burrow than the Browns are by Mayfield, six points is still a lot for the clearly better team. NFL rosters only carry so many players, so it’s not like the Bengals can rest their whole team. They’re clearly the better team and getting almost a touchdown, making this an easy choice.

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New Orleans Saints (-3.5) | Best Line: BetMGM

While the other two picks highlighted inconsequential games, this one matters. The Saints can still make the playoffs, but they need a win over the Falcons to have a chance. (They also need the Rams to beat the 49ers. That game is happening at the same time as this one, so there’s no risk of New Orleans being eliminated before their matchup kicks off.) While the Saints and the Falcons have similar records this season, New Orleans is by far the better team. The Saints have a positive 19 scoring differential on the season — the Falcons are at negative 136.

With this game being far more important to the Saints, laying more than a field goal is no big deal. Atlanta has the 30th ranked defense by DVOA, and could be without star tight end Kyle Pitts on offense. Atlanta also has much less to play for. OddsShopper has a 67$ xWIN and 14%xROI for the Saints here.

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