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NFL Betting Picks: Sunday Divisional Playoff Football
NFL Prop Bet: Austin Hooper OVER 3.5 Receptions -149 (BetMGM)Â
Divisional Round Sunday kicks off in Arrowhead, where the Chiefs are double-digit favorites over the Browns. Then the Buccaneers and Saints will play for a third time this season. Both games have plenty of storylines and potential wagers, so we will have to monitor all the news as we get closer to kickoff.
Austin Hooper’s receptions prop sits at 3.5, and to me this is a spot worth attacking. He is coming off a fantastic game against the Steelers, and if the Browns have any hope here, they will have to find some offense. The over on this prop is juiced up at various books, but that doesn’t mean there cannot be value, and I expect this line to continue to rise.
The Browns last week did whatever they wanted in Pittsburgh, and part of that was dominating with their tight end. Hooper had seven receptions on 11 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, and if he sees that type of volume, this prop will be over quickly. Hooper had five or more targets in three straight games to end the regular season and racked up four or more receptions in each contest as well. Part of that had to do with some COVID issues at wide receiver, but this offense will utilize the tight end even at full strength.
The matchup gives me little hesitation, as the Chiefs are average at best defending the tight end position. On the season they allowed an average of 5.2 receptions per game to the position, which was tied for 24th in the league. The Browns are 10.5-point underdogs, so it is not a stretch to think they could be playing from behind, which means even more passing volume for this offense. In terms of price, the best line available on the over is -149, which doesn’t seem great until we shop around. Most books have over 3.5 receptions for Hooper sitting at -175 or more, so finding something around -150 is some potential value. Given the right game script and the fact Hooper is playing well, this is a prop worth attacking, even though we have to lay the little extra juice.
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