After fighting through a long offseason, the NFL is back! Thursday marks the beginning of Week 1, with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This means there is not much time left to place NFL futures bets prior to games starting. Awesemo’s newest expert NFL betting picks model, the NFL Futures Tool, will help guide you through all of the NFL odds and lines, and give you some of the sharpest NFL betting advice for the 2021 season based off our team of experts’ simulations and projections.
Every season the most popular NFL futures bet to place is picking the Super Bowl winner. With a lot of movement this offseason due to salary cap restrictions, we are certainly in for an eventful season. The 17th game on the schedule and COVID still lurking also could have an impact on some teams.
To assist in placing NFL betting futures this season, Awesemo has published a team futures tool. Along with displaying the odds, the tool shows the expected win rate of each pick, as well as the expected return on investment (ROI). With this being a great differentiator between this tool and the typical Super Bowl picks article, let’s dive into the NFL betting picks to win the Super Bowl that have the greatest expected ROI.
NFL Futures Bets: Super Bowl Betting Odds, Picks & ROI
Baltimore Ravens +1400 (31% Expected ROI)
The Ravens have by far the highest expected NFL betting ROI, at 31%. They also have an expected win rate of 8%, which is tied for the third highest overall. The headlines out of Baltimore this preseason have not been positive, with season-ending injuries to running backs J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill. With the Ravens being a run-heavy team, these are massive losses. So now Gus Edwards slides in as lead back. While he does not have the name value, Edwards has averaged at least 5 yards per carry in each of his three NFL seasons. The running game should continue to be solid, and their defense is also packed with playmakers. Simply put, this team will go as far as Lamar Jackson can take them.
If Jackson can progress as a passer, this team is elevated to another level. A respectable passing game forces defenses to play honest instead of selling out against the run. Obviously, this means an improved passing game opens running lanes as well, making this one of the most dangerous units in the league. Of course, it remains to be seen if Jackson can take this step. If he can, watch out for Baltimore.
Indianapolis Colts +3500 (9% Expected ROI)
The Colts have a 9% expected ROI and a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl. Like Baltimore, they have a strong running game and a talented defense, and they also play in a tough division that they are not favored to win. The similarities continue with their biggest weakness, which appears to be the passing game. After Philip Rivers retired, the Colts opted to give Carson Wentz a second chance in the NFL. They are betting that he can return to MVP-caliber play. I
The defense has playmakers at every level. They were top 10 in most categories last season, and there is no reason to believe they will drop off. The running game, headlined by Jonathan Taylor, will again be very strong. All they need is above-average play from the quarterback position to be a playoff team. They may be one trade deadline move for a receiver away from competing for a title, and it may be worth betting on them before they do it.
San Francisco 49ers +1400 (8% Expected ROI)
The 49ers have the third-highest expected NFL betting ROI, at 8%. They have a 7% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is tied for the fifth highest in the league.
The 49ers are in an interesting situation. They had some of the worst injury luck last season, but now they are now healthy and have a backup plan at quarterback in case of injury with Trey Lance. San Francisco plays in arguably the toughest division in football. However, many forget they were in the Super Bowl the last season they were healthy.
The defense is expected to be solid, led by a tough front seven. The running game will be the offense’s bread and butter, and they have a deep backfield. They also now have a solid receiving corps. When healthy, this could be the NFC team to push the Buccaneers.
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