With the 2021 NFL regular season just around the corner, the futures market is booming with a near-endless catalog of team and player props. Thankfully, Awesemo and Shawn Zhan have developed a tool specifically designed to tackle the NFL prop bets market: The Awesemo NFL Season Long Player Props Tool. Utilizing the tool, we will explore each major section of the current NFL player futures market to identify the best NFL prop bets and odds available per category.
Past Regular Season Touchdown Rushing Leaders by Year
Although previous odds are difficult to dig up, bettors can loosely use the past touchdown leaders as a barometer for the plausible comparisons of then and now.
- 2020: Derrick Henry (17)
- 2019: Derrick Henry (16)
- 2018: Todd Gurley (17)
- 2017: Todd Gurley (13)
- 2016: LeGarrette Blount (18)
- 2015: Devonta Freeman (11)
- 2014: Marshawn Lynch (13)
- 2013: Jamaal Charles/Marshawn Lynch: 12)
- 2012: Arian Foster (13)
- 2011: LeSean McCoy (17)
NFL Player Props: Best Rushing Odds & Bets
Josh Allen Under 8.5 Touchdowns Rushing (-124, SugarHouse)
The Bills enter the 2021 season fresh off a combined 16 rushing touchdowns in 2020, with eight of them coming from quarterback Josh Allen. General manager Brandon Beane gave Allen some weapons by adding Emmanuel Sanders, Taiwan Jones and Matt Breida and maintaining the offensive line with guard Jon Feliciano and tackle Daryl Williams.
With an NFL player futures prop of 8.5 touchdowns for Allen, the Awesemo Season Long Player Props Tool is forecasting a swing in the opposite direction. Although Allen had 24.8% of Buffalo’s rushing attempts and half of their touchdowns last season (29.76% red zone rushing attempts), the Player Props Tool projects Allen for slight regression with 4.9 touchdowns in 2021 (along with projecting a yard shy of his rushing prop at 479 yards). It also projects Allen for 87% odds of hitting the under and a significant 64% return on investment. These are likely even heavier odds considering the tool is not accounting for the 0.5 hook featured on SugarHouse’s 8.5 total.
As of right now the touchdown prop for Allen is only available on SugarHouse at -124 juice, but keep an eye on the sportsbooks listed at OddsShopper.
D’Andre Swift Under 7.5 Touchdowns Rushing (-125, SugarHouse)
Though chasing an under is never quite as exciting as overs, the Player Props Tool suggests otherwise for D’Andre Swift’s touchdown line. Coming into his second NFL season, Swift already has his second head coach in Dan Campbell and a new general manager Brad Holmes. The newly established front office traded for Jared Goff and signed Breshad Perriman while only seeing departures from their offensive line. The addition of Jamaal Williams to the backfield only clouds the waters more, though he is more of a receiving threat.
Although the Player Props Tool gives Swift a prop of 8.2 touchdowns (while the SugarHouse line remains at 7.5), the tool projects 91% odds on the under for Swift’s touchdowns in 2021. It also has an 87% return on investment on the under, as Swift projects for three touchdowns short of his prop line (five touchdowns). The Lions failing to address an offensive line which just surrendered 42 sacks (10th most in 2020) does not lend confidence to Swift’s chances on the over either.
SugarHouse’s moderate -125 juice on a slightly deflated 7.5 touchdowns is worthy of an early stake in the fire. Much like the market for Allen, it is advisable to keep tabs on line movement and market availability on OddsShopper.
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