Before diving into the NFL odds and best NFL picks to win the Super Bowl this season, it’s important to know what previous winners have looked like. There are a few key trends found within the past 20 winners.
The median number of wins for a Super Bowl champion is 12. There is no surprise here as only two of the last 20 winners finished the regular season won 10 or fewer games. Getting to 12 secures a high seed, ensuring easier matchups. It puts the team in contention to avoid playing on Wild Card Week entirely with a bye.
The median Super Bowl odds are +1,200 with eight winners entering the season under +1,000. Falling in line with highly projected teams taking down the Lombardi Trophy, their median win total has been a 9.5 over/under. The favorite doesn’t win every year but few teams come out of nowhere to be the best in the league. Prior to the 2001 season, the Patriots were +6,000 to win. Those were the longest odds for a winning team. They secured a victory won the back of Tom Brady‘s 11-3 while replacing Drew Bledsoe.
In the season before their big wins, Super Bowl champs have recorded a median of 11 wins.
With some cursory knowledge in tow, below we’ll be dissecting the NFL odds and the best NFL picks to win the 2020 NFL MVP by using Awesemo’s very own OddsShopper tool.
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money your’e making over time. Check it out right HERE.
NFL Odds + NFL Picks to Win Super Bowl LV
5. Cleveland Browns, +4,000
The Browns are one of the most talent-laden offenses in the NFL right now. Former All-Pro Jack Conklin and top-10 pick Jedrick Wills make up their tackles, while back-to-back Pro Bowler Joel Bitonio mans the interior. They’re protecting Baker Mayfield, 2018 first overall pick and the only college quarterback with two top-five seasons by adjusted yards per attempt. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry have eight combined Pro Bowls, and the backfield runs two-deep with elite talent.
With long-shot teams, odds can vary widely from book to book. Every casino has the Chiefs in the ballpark of +600, but the number for Cleveland has an absurd range. Getting the best odds on them is half the battle.
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money your’e making over time. Check it out right HERE.Â
Even on defense, the Browns are loaded. They’ll be starting five first-round players with a slew of day 2 picks alongside them. The last step is Kevin Stefanski being their first quality coach in over a decade. Stefanski was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota last year. That team won 10 games and knocked off the Saints in the playoffs. They were eighth in points scored.
Facing the Ravens and Steelers twice each is a hurdle, but Cleveland has the man-power to beat both teams. At +4,000, they are one of the best long-shot Super Bowl bets.
4. Kansas City Chiefs, +600
Super Bowl repeats are not uncommon in the last two decades. The Patriots have six Lombardi trophies while Pittsburgh and the Giants each own a pair of rings. Baltimore has two but separated by a decade. On the other hand, Peyton Manning has two twice but with two different teams, Denver and Indianapolis. Patrick Mahomes is on such another level that a Patriots-like run or at least a Pittsburgh-style stretch of excellence should be the expectation.
With two seasons under his belt, Mahomes is currently the greatest passer of all time by rating (108.9), yards per game (303.6) and adjusted yards per attempt (9.2) as well as most other stats that exist. He’s only 24 years old and didn’t know how to read a defense during his MVP season.
Pat Mahomes says he didn’t even know how to read defenses until halfway through last year.
Gonna be a long decade for defenses.
—#TheShop is streaming on @hbomax pic.twitter.com/oit04qNq0G— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) July 8, 2020
Getting a Super Bowl bet down on the Chiefs at +600 is a bet on the beginning of a dynasty.
3. New Orleans Saints, +1,200
Despite a lackluster finish in the Divisional Round, the Saints were one of the few truly elite teams last year. Their defense was inside the top half of the league by expected points, and the offense was on another level. Drew Brees was top five in expected points added per play. He was also first in the league in success rate — the percentage of plays that add points above the average outcome. The 41-year-old still has his signature accuracy, and that’s all he needs to cut apart defenses. Having Michael Thomas, who set the single-season reception record last year (149), doesn’t hurt either.
The Saints entered this offseason with limited money and draft capital to work with, but they made the most of it. From the start of 2019 to today, the team swapped Vonn Bell and Eli Apple for Janoris Jenkins and Malcolm Jenkins. Pro Football Focus has both of those moves as upgrades from average to above-average players.
Then in the draft, they used their first two picks to bolster both lines with guard Cesar Ruiz in the first round and defensive end Zack Baun in the third. These moves signal the Saints going all in on what will likely be Brees’s final campaign. A Super Bowl send-off is within reach for New Orlean and Brees.
2. Seattle Seahawks, +2,100
Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way. Head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are undeniably holding the Seattle offense back. They refuse to unleash Russell Wilson. Despite a career touchdown to interception ratio of 3.3:1 and a passer rating of 101.2 (noticeably close to Mahomes), he’s never attempted more than 546 passes in a season.
As long as the coaching staff remains, that’s likely to stay the same. However, they have made a living off Wilson’s efficiency. When they paired his accuracy with the Legion of Boom, it netted them consecutive Super Bowl appearances and a win.
They have made strides on defense this offseason, including their recent acquisition of the disgruntled Jamal Adams from the Jets. Adams is one of the most unique players in the league. He recorded 6.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and an interception in 2019. They also drafted linebacker Jordyn Brooks in the first round after signing Quinton Dunbar, PFF’s No.2 rated corner in free agency. Dunbar is currently on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, putting his status in some doubt.
There are limiting agents organizing this team but don’t let that stop you placing a Super Bowl bet on an elite passer backed by an improving defense.
1. Dallas Cowboys, +1,800
Offense has won championships for years now with scoring becoming easier and the overall talent pool turning into an ocean. Dallas appears to be taking that philosophy to heart this year starting with hiring Mike McCarthy. The former head coach of the Packers was with Aaron Rodgers through two MVP seasons and a Super Bowl victory. McCarthy’s coaching style fell behind but in his year away from the game he claims to have embraced a more analytics-driven philosophy. The Cowboys also retained Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator. He play-called Dallas into finishing first in the league at 6.5 yards per play.
The team then added CeeDee Lamb in the middle of the first round of the draft. Lamb posted 1,347 yards and 15 scores during his third and final season at Oklahoma. He joins a receiving unit that is already one of the best in the league with Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper on the outsides.
Dak Prescott has been an efficient passer thus far in his career and now has a mind-melting supporting cast. This is a team that could take home a Lombardi through sheer offensive willpower alone.
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