The AFC Championship features a matchup between two of the best young quarterbacks in the game, with the Buffalo Bills traveling to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The following Bills – Chiefs NFL betting preview for the AFC Championship will find the best NFL odds, give you some betting trends and show the best NFL picks and NFL predictions available to make.
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NFL Betting Picks, Odds & Trends | AFC Championship
Bills vs. Chiefs Game Info
Buffalo Bills (15-3, 6-2 Away) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 7-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 24, 2020
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, Mo.
Coverage: CBS
The Bills offense has lived and died on the arm of Josh Allen this season. The offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs, along with adjustments to Allen’s arm mechanics and footwork, have all paid major dividends. While Diggs imposed his own will with a 1,500-yard season, his sheer presence enabled other Bills’ pass catchers like Cole Beasley to be effective underneath. Where the Bills fall short offensively is on the ground, and Buffalo hardly tried to run the football in last week’s Divisional Round matchup against the Ravens. While the Chiefs’ weakness defensively is against the run, it’s fair to wonder whether the Bills are even capable of taking advantage.
Defensively Buffalo is average in most categories, and they must find ways to scheme up pressure on Patrick Mahomes if they are to win this game. They forced the Chiefs to run in their first meeting, and Kansas City had no issue with this. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 161 yards in the game, which opened up passes throughout the game.
While Allen’s remarkable season took the NFL world by storm, it was business as usual for Mahomes and the Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes got knocked out of last week’s Divisional Round game with a concussion, but he will be active for the AFC Championship. Kansas City’s corps of pass catchers will be a tough cover for the Bills’ secondary.
The Chiefs blitzed on 35.9% of snaps this season, which ranked ninth in the NFL. In terms of pass rush effectiveness, however, Kansas City knocked opposing quarterbacks down on 11.4% of their dropbacks, the fourth-highest mark in the league. With Tyrann Mathieu lining up all over the place and the defensive line generating pressure, this is a dangerous defense that is capable of forcing a young quarterback like Allen into some costly mistakes.
Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Betting Picks + Odds Shopping
Using Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool, we can easily compare the NFL betting odds for Bills – Chiefs betting across the major sports books. The odds expressed are from 10 p.m. EST on Jan. 23, so make sure to check out the OddsShopper tool yourself to get the most up-to-date odds.
NFL Odds: Moneyline
Bills: (+155) — SugarHouse, DraftKings, William Hill
Chiefs: (-172) — FanDuel
NFL Odds: Spread
Bills: +3.5 (-115) — BetMGM
Chiefs: -3 (-120) — FanDuel, PointsBet, William Hill
NFL Odds: Point Total
Over: 54.5 (-109) — SugarHouse, DraftKings
Under: 54.5 (-105) — FanDuel, PointsBet
Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship NFL Betting Trends
- The Bills are 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games.
- The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Chiefs are 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games against the Bills.
- Road teams are on an 8-2 ATS surge in the last 10 games between the Bills and Chiefs.
Bills vs. Chiefs Stats
- Buffalo is averaging 30.3 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 3 in the NFL).
- Buffalo is surrendering 22.3 PPG this season (T-No. 9 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is averaging 29.1 PPG this season (T-No. 5 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is surrendering 22.3 PPG this season (T-No. 9 in the NFL).
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