Odds boosts are exactly that: Promotions from sportsbooks where they move tin your favor on certain bets. Many of them are prop bets, hoping you’ll put a few dollars on someone to hit a home run or a certain team to score a certain number of goals and still win. Our job is to highlight some of those odds boosts and give you some NFL picks to bet on, assuming it’s smart to buy into the NFL odds the sportsbooks are selling. We scour the internet trying to find the best odds boosts for you every day from every sport. Let us start with a more in-depth peek into the Week 8 slate for this Sunday.
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As tempted as I was to make all of these picks about Tua Tagovailoa with the number of odds boosts surrounding his first start, I stuck to the best of the bunch for this week. There were also plenty of odds boosts around Russell Wilson this weekend, but a rivalry game against an inconsistent 49ers team kept me off that bandwagon. Instead I went to some other household names for this weekend’s picks that don’t play quarterback. As always, you can find these bets and many others for tonight’s game on OddsShopper, Awesemo’s fantastic odds-shopping tool.
Week 8 NFL Picks + NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Picks: Tua Tagovailoa 250+ Passing Yards (+140 PointsBet)
There is no statistical data on Tagovailoa for me to base this prediction, so I’m going to rely on the Dolphins offense in the first six weeks to supply that. Miami had three 300-yard passing games in the first six weeks and in two of the games the Dolphins fell short, they did so because they had massive leads and ran the ball in the second half. So the weapons are there for Tagovailoa to throw the ball to in his first start if he has the time to throw. He does face a significant challenge in the Rams defense, which has allowed 250 passing yards just twice in seven games this season.
I would expect Tagovailoa to struggle early as he adjusts to what the Rams are going to throw at him defensively. However, he’ll likely get plenty of chances to throw in the second half if Miami needs to mount a comeback, which seems likely. I am not bold enough to look at the touchdown props nor do I think he’ll compare favorably to some of the other rookie quarterbacks starting this week. But he’ll get his opportunities to show off his arm on Sunday, and I think he can make it work well enough to get over 250 passing yards.
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NFL Picks: Tyreek Hill Scores Receiving Touchdown (+110 PointsBet)
Hill has caught a touchdown in five of Kansas City’s first seven games while averaging a little more than four catches per game. The Jets certainly don’t have anyone to match Hill’s speed, but Hill has been more of a possession receiver the last two weeks while averaging just 8.3 yards per reception. Three of Hill’s touchdowns have come inside the red zone, and he’s using his speed and agility in tight spaces to make plays. That should be a very successful strategy for the Chiefs against this Jets defense. All Patrick Mahomes needs to do is get the ball into Hill’s hands and let him wiggle his way into the end zone.
It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs decide to attack the Jets on Sunday because there won’t be much passing in the second half if this game goes the direction we all assume it will. It is hard to gauge New York’s passing defense because teams are running the ball so often against them in the third and fourth quarters, but teams have moved the ball successfully against them through the air. The Jets have allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season and good quarterbacks like Mahomes have carved up New York’s defense easily this year.
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NFL Picks: Alvin Kamara 150+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (+350 PointsBet)
Kamara has a tough matchup this week against the Bears defense, but his versatility makes him an intriguing option with this bet. He’s been around 150 combined yards the past three weeks as the Saints have dealt with injuries and illness on the offense. Kamara has become the main weapon for New Orleans the past few weeks and that will be even more important against a stingy Chicago defense. New Orleans will need to find ways to get the ball into the hand of its playmakers and out of Drew Brees’ hands quick, which might mean more action for Kamara in both facets of the game.
As much as the Bears provide a challenge for Kamara, the running back is unique to plan against for Chicago. The Bears aren’t as stingy against the run as many would expect, and that could play to Kamara’s advantage. Chicago is allowing 4.3 yards per rush and the Rams running backs averaged 4.8 yards per carry last week. Kamara is averaging nearly five yards per carry this season and the Saints rank 13th in rushing offense, so the chances are there for Kamara to be successful on the ground. It’ll be just as interesting to see how the Bears’ linebackers cover Kamara because there are few running backs as adept as a receiver out of the backfield as Kamara.
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