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NHL Odds & Betting Picks: Oilers vs. Senators | Feb.8
Meeting for the third time this year, these are two teams headed in somewhat opposite directions. As many expected, the Senators have struggled defensively, allowing a league-worst 4.33 goals per game. Many of their inefficiencies start with a young nucleus of offensive players like Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle that lack some discipline. Taking penalties is always a recipe for disaster, and when shorthanded against opponents like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, those opponents capitalize.
The Senators are the third-most penalized team, which means Edmonton’s power play (ninth in league) will get ample opportunities to strike. The Oilers are just 6-7 overall, which is definitely below expectations for a team with their firepower. Their mediocre start can be attributed much to their lack of a penalty kill. At just 72.7%, they are 24th in the league and just one spot above the lowly Senators. On the positive side of this, the Senators have struggled to score on the power play, with success on just 14.8% of tries. If Edmonton can avoid going to the box and can use their skill to draw penalties, we could be looking at another 8-goal outburst.
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Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline -185 (William Hill)
Edmonton took the first two meetings between these teams with ease, scoring 12 goals. In those affairs, Edmonton’s duo of McDavid and Draisaitl put up 14 points (7 each). Ottawa has no lines that can defensively keep up with either of Edmonton’s top lines, let alone a mediocre one. Often changing up their lines, it’s hard to fully gauge Ottawa’s possession and shot metrics. But as expected they are under 50% in nearly every category, including Corsi-for, shots for and high-danger chances. What this means in total is that Edmonton’s top-six group will get plenty of opportunities to pot a few goals. With five players already in double-digit points thus far, they are more than happy to oblige.
The over of 6.5 is the biggest you’ll ever see for NHL betting, so going with the simplified bet here is my preference. The Oilers’ advantage in all aspects of the game and sheer firepower will be too much for Ottawa.
Bonus Bet of the Day: Tyson Barrie Goal Scorer +450 (PointsBet)
Wagering on a defensemen to score goals can be a difficult venture for NHL betting, but I think we have to take our chances here. If you take a look at the market around Barrie, the odds are favorable. Just to give you an idea, guys like Dmytro Timashov, Pierre Engvall and Morgan Geekie are getting worse value to score than Barrie. That’s not exactly a “who’s who” of NHL talent, and with a game total approaching 7, chances will be prevalent.
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