Awesemo’s team of golf experts have compiled a list of their favorite PGA Championship betting picks for this week’s tournament. Geoff Ulrich, Ben Rasa, Jason Rouslin, Max Smotritskiy and Eric Lindquist used Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool to find the best betting lines and odds for outright winners and different prop bets like Top 5s, Top 10s and Top 20s. Below you’ll find their expert picks for Kiawah Island.
PGA Championship Expert Betting Picks
Tommy Fleetwood: Outright 66-1 (PointsBet) | Top 10 +525 (PointsBet)
Fleetwood has been a frustrating golfer all year, and it looked like he was going to be mostly an afterthought heading into the PGA. However, he started to put things together at Wells Fargo with a 14th-place finish where he gained strokes in all four categories. That easily could be an outlier effort, but Fleetwood has been closer than the results have indicated all year. He now heads to this monster track, and if the game is trending upward, he is worth buying at these lofty odds. This is a guy who has two top-fives in U.S. Opens and another runner-up finish at an Open Championship in recent years. If you think he is still the same golfer, then 66-1 in the outright market and over 5-1 for a top-10 are both PGA Championship betting picks worth considering.
-Ben Rasa, @JazzrazDFS
Will Zalatoris: Outright 60-1 (PointsBet) | Top 10 +450 (PointsBet)
How sweet would it be for Zalatoris to get his status on tour by winning a major? This is not that unlikely given how good he is and how well this course and conditions set up for him this week. The harder and windier it gets the more it favors Zalatoris. He is top 10 in the field in windier conditions and in playing hard courses. The course being long should also not present a challenge, as Zalatoris is 25th in the field in driving distance. Recent form also checks out. He made the cut on the number at the Byron Nelson and ended up first in approach, gaining a whopping nine strokes on the field. His putter has held him back last few tournaments, but putt luck changes very quickly and Zalatoris can run hot with the putter, as he did at the Masters. Speaking of the Masters, his track record in majors speaks for itself, with a top-10 at the U.S. Open and coming in second at the Masters. These results show that he is not afraid of the spotlight. Zalatoris is an excellent value coming in under the radar due to some variance in putting and will be there at the top of the PGA Championship leaderboard on Sunday.
-Max Smotritskiy, @DFSMax
Joaquin Niemann: (All Bets on BetMGM)
Outright 66-1 | Top 5 10-1Â | Top 10 +475 | Top 20 + 225 | Top 40 -135
It feels like Niemann has been around for a while. In just his third full season on the PGA Tour, he has racked up 16 top-10s, including a win at the Greenbrier. He was also a humongous bright spot for the International Team at the President’s Cup, giving hope to that side for years to come. His major performances have also gotten better. After missing his first three cuts, he has made the cut in each of the last two, including a 23rd at the U.S. Open back in September. This course should provide a great opportunity to get his first career top-10 at a major given his strength off the tee and with his irons. His blend of distance and accuracy, along with one of the lowest ball flights on tour, should work out perfectly in the firm and fast conditions that are expected. Niemann has made 17 straight cuts, the longest on the PGA Tour, and that should not stop this week. I am using that info to bet the top-40 number at -135 to cover all of the rest of the bets on him.
-Jason Rouslin, @DFSgolfer23
Stewart Cink: Outright 150-1 (PointsBet) | Top 5 +2200 | Top 10 +1000 | Top 20 + 600
Cink has actually been about as good (and consistent) as anyone on tour over the past two months. He just won the RBC Heritage on a Pete Dye course in South Carolina, and the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island is yet another Pete Dye course in South Carolina, perhaps a sign of good things to come. A much improved around-the-green game and a hot putter have linked up with Cink’s consistent ball striking, and the results have followed with three top-20s in his past four events. And as an extra bonus, he has found a little extra distance of late, averaging 309.7 yards off the tee in his past six events. That means he is plenty long and plenty capable of competing in this field, so fire him up across the board on PointsBet.
-Eric Lindquist, @EricLindquist
Paul Casey: Outright 55-1 (DraftKings Sportsbook) | Top 10 +900 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
It is easy to forget, but less than a year ago at the PGA Championship, Paul Casey dusted Brooks Koepka by eight strokes in the final round, shooting 66 and ending the day in second, outdone only by some otherworldly shot-making by Collin Morikawa. A year later, Casey now enters this same event off a superb start to the season where he grabbed a win overseas and racked up four top-10s in seven PGA starts. The fact those top-10s were all front loaded in the winter/spring, though, has his odds inflated a bit this week, and it makes him a great target. He ranks sixth in strokes gained tee to green and eighth in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds. He also notably landed his best ever finish at the Players this March (fifth place) on another treacherous Pete Dye design. Casey has a major-caliber game, and at this price range he feels like the player with the best chance to break through this week.
-Geoff Ulrich @thefantasygrind
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