The November Masters is looming over everything in the golf world, but we have a few more tournaments until the big show begins. The last few weeks we have stayed on the West Coast for a few non-cuts in the CJ Cup and Zozo Championship, but now we flip the script in more ways than one. We head off the mainland to Bermuda for the Bermuda Championship, which is a full-field event featuring mostly lesser-known PGA tour names. In addition, we get a bunch of newcomers who are looking to take advantage of the opportunity they have and find a way onto the tour. So we have our work cut out for us to find the best PGA picks to build a golf betting card around.
Make sure to check out the Above the Cut DFS Breakdown which will go into what to expect from this course and these conditions. On the betting side, this weak field means we have minimal win equity for the top names in this event and that means potentially huge payoffs if we can find a few golfers who could get in contention.
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PGA Picks: Golf Betting Futures/Outright Winners
PGA Pick: Doc Redman 28-1 (DraftKings)
Only at tournaments like the Bermuda Championship are we going to have guys towards the top of the outright market with zero career wins. It’s a rare opportunity for almost none of the big names to be in attendance, and that opens the door for some of the up-and-comers to break through. At the top of that list has to be Doc Redman, who has shown he can compete on tour and has a handful of top-five finishes over the last few years. His form has been a little hit or miss with two missed cuts over the last five events, but he also has two third-place finishes during the same span.
Even though 28-1 doesn’t seem like good value, we have to consider the strength of this field and the upside Redman has. He has gained tee to green in five of his last six tournaments, and he has some of the best ball-striking metrics of anyone playing. With the recent flashes of upside and the ability to go low, he would be my favorite price of the top-end options we have available.
PGA Pick: Patrick Rodgers 66-1 (DraftKings)
We aren’t going to find many players in this field without red flags, and in the outright market we can live with targeting some guys playing not-so-great golf. All we care about is the upside, and Patrick Rodgers fits the bill as someone whose A-game is worthy of taking down an event like this. He can get crazy hot with the putter, and although the ball striking is hit or miss, we have seen signs lately of it improving.
It has been two straight missed cuts for Rodgers, but that actually was due to two really poor efforts on the greens. He gained tee to green in both events and had gained strokes putting in five straight tournaments, which is where the upside comes in. This course is short by PGA Tour standards, so his off-tee game will not be exposed. In fact, it should set up a lot of birdie opportunities. We need the putter to come back around, but at 66-1 that’s a risk worth taking.
PGA Betting Top 10
PGA Pick: Pat Perez +450 (DraftKings)
Similar to the outright odds, we aren’t going to have PGA Tour regulars with big prices in the top 10 market. However, there are still some guys that I am interested in, and Pat Perez sitting at +450 for a top 10 is a spot I am willing to take a position on. Perez certainly knows how to go low, and the form I think is steadily trending upward, even if the results are erratic.
Perez has missed two straight cuts, but before that he found the weekend in five straight, including a top 10 at the Safeway. More importantly, the ball-striking numbers have been positive in five straight. His putting is all over the place, but Bermuda is Perez’s preferred surface, and long-term he has not struggled with the flat stick. I don’t mind going to Perez in DFS this week, and I will back him to find the first page of the leaderboard at a reasonable payoff.
PGA Betting Matchup
There are a bunch of individual matchups to break down if you are looking for less volatility. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player, and you can take several head-to-heads with him in there hoping he doesn’t find the weekend.
PGA Pick: Anirban Lahiri -118 vs. Beau Hossler
We are going to two PGA Tour regulars here, as Anirban Lahiri is a slight favorite matched up against Beau Hossler. Both guys are actually finding the weekend regularly right now, but again, the strokes gained data behind the results is more important than the results themselves.
Lahiri is coming in off some quality results at Sanderson Farm (37th) and Corales (sixth) and will look to keep the results going. His ball striking doesn’t stand out, but it was slightly positive, and he pairs that with a boom/bust short game. Lahiri needs to continue to give himself chances with the irons, as that can be a struggle. But if he keeps his recent form, another four rounds should be in the cards for him.
Hossler also has found ways to make cuts in recent weeks. He has made five straight cuts but doesn’t have a finish inside the top 20, and the ball striking is seriously concerning. Of all the tournaments we have strokes gained data for, Hossler has gained a total of zero times with irons since February. That’s over 10 events with negative strokes gained on the approach, and it is almost impossible to compete with that. Hossler is a skilled putter and has been better off the tee lately, but without the irons, it is hard to imagine his results improving much. With there being no sign of life from Hossler’s ball striking, I will short him here while his stock is inflated due to finding ways to make cuts in recent weeks.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.
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