The Swing season continues on the PGA Tour with the second tournament during the Vegas Swing as the CJ Cup is set to tee off. Normally this event is held in South Korea, but with the COVID situation, the tour had to make a change this year and decided to host another tournament in Vegas. Now we head to Shadow Creek, which isn’t a course we see during a normal PGA Tour season. Make sure to check out the Above the Cut DFS article that will break down the course in full, but simply put, this is a par 72 measuring out around 7,500 yards.
In addition to the new venue, the CJ Cup is a non-cut, so we have just 78 golfers looking to take down the trophy. The four guaranteed rounds change the dynamic in both DFS, and betting and we can certainly look to take some positions during the tournament. With only 78 players the betting odds can look shorter than we want to see, but the strong field gives us quality numbers on a lot of big-time players. Lets dive in and see what the market has and who we can target for a potential wager on tour this week.
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PGA Picks: Futures/Outright Winners
Rory McIlroy 14-1 (DraftKings)
We have most of the big-name players on the slate, so that means some short prices at the very top. Dustin Johnson sits at just 9-1 to win this which is way too short, but it does open up some value right below him. Guys like Justin Thomas and McIlroy have appealing numbers, and at 14-1, I am going to take a shot with McIlroy, who is still looking for that first win of the 2020 season.
It hasn’t been the best year for McIlroy, but at the same time, he still hasn’t missed a single cut and has a bunch of top-10 finishes on the resume. When one is as good as McIlroy, top 10s aren’t going to get it done, and he needs to start finding the winners circle to get back on track. The game seems to be fine with his last appearance being an eighth-place finish at the U.S. Open at Winged Foot. He gained across the board in that event, and anytime he is positive on the greens, he should be in contention.
The line of 14-1 is too short of price for a 78-man field regardless of where they are playing. I will back McIlroy almost blind in that spot, especially when his form is in decent shape. This course seems like it could reward length in certain spots pending you keep it out of the drink, and that should benefit McIlroy even more with his driving abilities. Out of the short prices, McIlroy is easily my favorite, and of the big names with winning upside, I think he easily presents the best value on the board.
Sungjae Im 45-1 (DraftKings)
I had some interest in Im last week at The Shriners, and although he didn’t threaten the lead, he still finished with a quality 13th-place showing. The stats were encouraging with 9.3 strokes gained tee to green, and it was the putter that really let him down as he lost two strokes on the greens. If he continues to strike the ball like that, we should see him get back to the form from earlier in 2020, where he was arguably playing some of the best golf on tour.
Since this is a new course, we don’t have any course history to rely on, but we still can take what we know about these golfers and apply it to Shadow Creek. Im is actually one of the more balanced golfers on tour with no glaring weakness to his game, and that means he could easily get in the mix regardless of course or format. We saw him win at Honda and come third at API this year, so one thing we do know is that courses with a lot of water aren’t an issue for him. This course has penalty areas lurking, and that could be one of the main defenses this week.
Im’s odds are 45-1, which for a 78-man field is good enough for me to take a position. He has shown he can compete against any field no matter the strength, and I like that he got some reps in Vegas last week as he decided to play the Shiners, unlike most of the other big name players.
Top 20
Joaquin Niemann +200 (DraftKings)
With only 78 players in the field, we aren’t going to get huge odds on any player to cash a top-20 ticket as more than 25% of the field will get inside that number. That doesn’t mean we cannot look for value here, and betting a player for top 20 in addition to some of the more aggressive finishes can create a better floor for your betting ticket. Here we have Niemann at a reasonable 2-1 to finish inside the top 20 at Shadow Creek this week.
Niemann was another player who chose to play last week at TPC Summerlin, and he found the weekend, finishing 13th. It was another week of gaining strokes off the tee and with the putter for Niemann who also used that formula to finish 23rd at the U.S. Open. He needs to get the irons dialed back in to truly contend, but that is the strength of his game, and I have no doubts that will happen. Dating back to the end of August, he has four straight top-30 finishes, and I like his game translating at this par-72 layout. If you want to take the full shot on Niemann, he is 66-1 to win, but don’t forget about bets like top 20s where we obviously have a ton more room to cash tickets with quality play this week.
Matchup
There are a bunch of individual matchups to break down if you are looking for less volatility. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player, and you can take several head-to-heads with him in there hoping he doesn’t find the weekend.
Cameron Champ (-106) vs. Jordan Spieth
If you told me this was the line in this matchup a few years ago, I would have told you Champ became a world-class player, but sadly that isn’t the reason this is a virtual toss-up. This is all due to Jordan Spieth’s struggles, and even though Champ has some talent, he still isn’t consistently finding the top end of the leaderboard. Both players will get 72 holes to dial their games in, but I feel much more comfortable with Champ and where his game stands.
We know that Champ is a world-class driver, and that is going to translate at any course he plays. When he has good showings, it is because he pairs up the flat stick or the irons with that off-tee game, and lately that hasn’t been the case. He comes into this tournament having lost with the putter in five straight events, and that has held back his finishes. That said, the putter can flip at any time, and besides that issue the rest of Champ’s game looks solid enough.
On the other side is Spieth, who is truly experiencing one of the biggest falls we have seen in some time from a marquee player. It’s not to say he will never get back to his world-class form, but right now just making a cut or putting up a decent finish seems like a reach. He comes into this event off three straight missed cuts, and he hasn’t finished inside the top 70 since early August.
The stats aren’t any better, as Spieth has lost strokes off the tee in seven straight events. He also has five straight negative showings with his putter, and that used to be the club that could bail him out of some tee-to-green issues. With no form to speak of, I will fade Spieth in head-to-heads until he shows improvement over 72 holes and not just flashes of his old self.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with PGA betting or are just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets, which, naturally, are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs at these PGA odds.
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