It may be November, but anytime we get golf from Augusta National the sports world takes notice. The Masters is set to kick off during a new time in the calendar, but its still the pinnacle of the PGA Tour season and its time to crown another major champion. The race for the Green Jacket gets underway and we have so much to breakdown on both the PGA DFS and golf betting side of things. We’ll be delving into The Masters PGA odds and some of the best PGA picks to make for this week’s betting card.
Make sure to check out all the DFS content throughout the week as there are monster tournaments and prize pools up for grabs. On the betting front we have a wide open Masters with appealing prices up and down the board, which is exactly what we want to see heading into a tournament. The smaller field gives us less players to choose from and with so much course history, we have a lot of information to go off of. Let’s dive into a few players who are some of my favorite Masters golf betting picks this week.
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PGA Picks: Golf Betting Futures/Outright Winners
PGA Pick: Jon Rahm 11-1 (DraftKings)
Certainly, we have big time options to choose from in majors, but to me the top end guys I’m most interested in betting are Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. With Rahm we get north of 10-1, which is reasonable and a player who really checks every box we are looking for heading into Augusta. The Spaniard wont be fazed by wet conditions and his driving aggression could further his advantage if that’s what we see this week.
Looking over the recent form, we see everything we’d want, with Rahm having a pair of wins post restart and plenty of top-end finishes. Stats-wise, he gains off the tee automatically and the rest of his game doesn’t have a glaring weakness to it. He had back-to-back Top-10s at Augusta and there is no reason he cannot breakthrough for his first major win in this spot.
PGA Pick: Bubba Watson 33-1
Here is a guy who we know can get it done at Augusta as he has two green jackets to his name. Going for a third Masters win would further solidify Bubba as a historically good Masters player, and with the form he has coming in there he has to be considered for your golf betting card.
Watson is able to lean on his aggressive nature off the tee at Augusta and his defensive putting style seems to gel with these tricky greens. More importantly he is back in form after a rough stretch of golf where it seemed like he couldn’t really threaten in top level fields and certainly in majors. He comes in with two straight Top-10 finishes and has gained tee to green in every event since mid-July. The putter is and probably always will be the wildcard with Bubba, but that’s the case with a ton of players and I can embrace that variance at 33-1 for an outright win.
PGA Betting Top 10
PGA Pick: Kevin Kisner 9-1
There are 150-1 numbers floating out there for a Kisner win, so if you want to really take a shot at a big payout that avenue is available. However most likely Kisner isn’t going to win the tournament, but that’s not to say he cannot be a factor and find himself on that first page of the leaderboard. A Top-10 golf betting pick can still give us upside with 9/1 odds, while giving us more room than a straight outright bet provides.
Kisner is a Georgia Bulldog and certainly is familiar with the course having played this event the last four years. The good news is he is 4/4 in finding the weekend, but his best finish was just a T211 last year. He isn’t going to be able to hang off the tee with many of the big-time players, but he has an iron game and putting combination that I’d put up against anybody. If the course plays differently in November we could see a skillset like this be more suitable and regardless of the condition Kisner has the game to contend when he tees it up.
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PGA Betting Head-to-Head Matchup
PGA Pick: Cameron Champ -130 vs Brendon Todd
We head to the matchup market here as there are a bunch of individual matchups to breakdown if you are looking for less volatility and more of a grind-it-out type wager. Another reason to bet a matchup is you are looking to short a specific player and you can take several H2Hs with him in there hoping he doesn’t find the weekend. Keep an eye out for additional betting content that will run down some potentially head to head matchups as there are a ton on the board this week.
The matchup I’m going to here has Cameron Champ hoping to get in the mix against Brendon Todd who is looking to find the form that he was showing during a great stretch this summer. It’s two players will wildly different styles and I give the edge to Champ based on a bunch of factors.
First up, we have Champ who is coming off an eighth-place finish at the Zozo Championship where he was able to gain strokes in all categories. We all know how powerful he is off the tee and if Bryson is truly taking apart the course than Champ should be another guy who can really shrink down these holes with his driving ability. The form here is hit and miss but that’s to be expected with a guy like this and the off the tee game will travel regardless of where he is playing. With that powerful weapon on his side that’s a good start against Todd who clearly doesn’t have that same luxury.
For Todd, even when he was playing good golf the off the tee game was an issue. He bleeds strokes OTT and comes into Augusta having lost in six consecutive events which is an immediate red flag for me. Furthermore his irons have also cooled off and he has lost tee to green in seven straight events which is the opposite of what we want to see heading into a major. The putter is world class, but that can only do so much and at a course like this I do not see that saving players who cannot get into position. The form really has regressed lately with a MC, a 47th , and a 52nd-place finish in his last three events and I do not see that changing much here.
With the PGA odds sitting at just -130 Champ I am willing to back him knowing he should have a massive advantage off the tee and is showing more signs of the game clicking than a guy like Todd who is searching. The putter is the only place where Todd has the advantage and with that being such high variance as opposed to driving the ball this is a spot where I’m confident Champ comes out ahead more often than not.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with betting on PGA or just looking to dive into it for the first time make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long PGA odds we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large field GPPs where you really hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side we have H2H bets, which naturally are more like cash games or H2Hs in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Just getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
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