With the season’s final major in the rearview, the PGA season continues this week at TPC Twin Cities (par 71, 7,431 yards) in Blaine, Minn., for the 3M Open. This tournament was added to the added to the PGA schedule three years ago, and the first two champions were Matthew Wolff (-21) in 2019 and then Michael Thompson (-19) last season. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks this week and Vegas betting odds for the 3M Open.
Expert PGA Picks & Vegas Odds: The 3M Open
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has come up with the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA Tour tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played. Players are not rewarded by more or fewer rounds in the time period.
Tony Finau (+1400, PointsBet)
After missing back-to-back cuts, Finau got back on track at the Open, posting a 15th-place finish at Royal St. George’s. His irons came alive, ranking third in greens stuck at the links course, and Finau finished fifth in total birdies with 18 for the week. Elite iron play and being able to rack up birdies in bunches is the recipe for success at TPC Twin Cities, and it is worth investing in Finau for his long overdue second PGA win this week.
Including a third place at the last 3M Open, Finau has produced five top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts at par 71s that are home to bentgrass greens. Lastly, Finau ranks 10th in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf rankings, which is nine spots higher than his standard world ranking.
Matthew Wolff (+3300, William Hill)
Wolff has been masterful at TPC Twin Cities in the past and has to be considered at these odds. He claimed his first PGA title at this venue two years ago, and the following season he was right in the mix for another win at the 2020 3M Open with a 12th-place finish. While his campaign this season has been underwhelming, Wolff’s game appeared to be trending in the right direction in his last start, gaining 3.9 strokes tee to green and three strokes on approach at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Due to an undisclosed reason Wolff withdrew from last week’s British Open, but that should not be a cause for concern. While the major was being played overseas, his swing coach George Gankas posted clips of Wolff playing some practice rounds. Wolff showed no signs of an injury and looked to be in great form. So far during his time on Tour Wolff has exposed many weak fields, and he should contend for a win this weekend in Blaine.
Hank Lebioda (+5000, BetMGM)
Lately Lebioda has been extremely close to capturing the first PGA win of his career, with three straight finishes inside the top eight coming into this week. At TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic, which just like TPC Twin Cities is an easy par 71 with bentgrass greens, Lebioda ranked sixth in strokes gained putting, lifting him to an eighth-place finish.
This was the third event in a row that Lebioda has gained at least five strokes on the greens, and in addition to his scorching hot flat stick, Lebioda has contributed positive strokes from tee to green in seven straight starts. After seeing Thompson lead the field in strokes gained putting during his victory at last year’s 3M Open, it is clear players need to have a stellar week with the putter to win this event. Lebioda needs to be included on betting cards for the 3M Open in this current form.
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