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NHL Betting Picks: Flyers at Penguins Preview | March 2
Philadelphia rides into this game with a bit of swagger after winning three straight, the last two of which were shutout wins over the Sabres. The wins over an offensive laggard like Buffalo may not be reason to start planning parades, but the Flyers resurgence is built on more than just luck. They finally have Sean Couturier back in the lineup, and that is paying dividends as he has 11 points in eight games. His presence is allowing Philadelphia to roll three scoring lines, and they come into this game having scored 3 or more goals in four of their last five starts. More good news could be coming here tonight as Travis Konecny looks set to return to the lineup, giving their power play and top-6 more options. Goalie Carter Hart bounced back in a big way after a terrible outing against Boston and seems likely to get the start here. Philadelphia is also getting contribution from the talented Shayne Gostisbehere on the back end. Gostisbehere finally looks healthy and has given their offense a boost with 2 goals in his last three games.
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Pittsburgh enters this game off a 2-0 shutout loss to the Islanders. The team has had issues with consistency all season, and some of that is finally starting to boil over in the media. The Penguins have often featured some of the best special teams units in the league, but this year their power play ranks just 24th in the league and their penalty kill is 28th. Part of the Penguins’ issues stems from a lack of production from their normally reliable studs. Evgeni Malkin enters this game with just 12 points in 20 games and is -8 on the ice. The Penguins don’t have the scoring depth up front that Philadelphia does, and with Jason Zucker on IR, Pittsburgh has been forced to play Malkin with the likes of Jared McCann and Chris Tanev, neither of whom have scored more than 14 goals in a season. Despite the poor start, Pittsburgh isn’t out of the playoff race by any means. They sit fifth in the East Division and are .500 over their last four starts. They have been tough at home too, with a 7-1 home record this year.
Best Bet: Flyers Moneyline (-110) — DraftKings
Beating the Penguins at home this year hasn’t been easy, but you get the feeling the Flyers are up for this kind of test. They have their top center back in Couturier, have received an unexpected boost from the return to form of Gostisbehere and may be getting Konecny back here too. From a statistical point of view, the Flyers have also been the better team here for the most part. They have created more scoring chances, as they rank 12th in expected goal rate despite injuries to several big names, while the Penguins rank just 23rd. Philadelphia has also allowed the sixth-fewest scoring chances this year, while Pittsburgh ranks 15th in that same category.
The line we’re getting here is likely giving a little too much respect to the Penguins and their home record to start the year. Philadelphia was already the better team on paper and is getting further boosts from players returning from injury. The Flyers are a solid 5-2-1 on the road in 2021 and 5-2 against the Penguins in their last seven meetings. They are in a good spot to improve that record further tonight.
Bonus: Sabres Moneyline (+135) at Rangers — MGM Bets
The Sabres have been a pathetic offense this year, as they sit 29th in goals scored per game at 2.3. After getting shutout in back-to-back games, they seem like a poor target here, but their opponent has also underperformed most of the year. The Rangers haven’t been as bad as Buffalo at creating scoring chances, but they’re close. New York ranks just 25th in goals scored per game and remains without their best offensive player in Artemi Panarin. New York’s goaltending has been suspect all season, and the Sabres are due to get Jack Eichel back. He should be up for playing in front of the Rangers brass given how heavy the trade rumors to New York have been. Look for the Sabres to put up a decent effort here after being embarrassed on the weekend. They are a solid underdog NHL betting pick in this spot.
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