NBA Player Prop: Thursday's Best Bet | Damian Lillard Over 4.5 3 Pointers

NBA Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your NBA betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. Check it out right HERE. Let’s get into the daily NBA betting Picks, including my favorite NBA player prop bet on Damian Lillard in the Trail Blazers – Kings Thursday night game.

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NBA Prop of the Day: Damian Lillard 3-Pointers | March 4

There is one final slate of games before the NBA takes a brief pause for an All Star break. Coming off the bubble and all of the issues with COVID, it has been a grind for many teams. Tonight we still have plenty of betting options available tonight on both the side and player prop markets.

NBA Prop Bet: Damian Lillard Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made (-122) — FanDuel

My favorite prop bet comes from the Trail Blazers – Kings game in Portland. The Blazers are looking to close strong and are 4.5-point favorites over Sacramento in a game with a healthy 237 total. Last night Portland was able to get a big win against Golden State in a tight game, with Damian Lillard making clutch shots late. Today I am going right back to Lillard at over/under 4.5 3-pointers made. That is a big number, but with Lillard that does not matter.

There are only a handful of players who have Lillard’s range, and he is consistently taking double-digit 3’s leading to massive outputs. On the season he is averaging 11.1 attempts from behind the arc per game and is still shooting a respectable 37.8% despite that volume. With the injuries to Portland’s secondary options, Lillard is having to take on an even greater role. Barring blowouts, he is firmly playing 35 minutes per night, and that sets the stage for more than 4.5 3-pointers against Sacramento.

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I’ve had success with this sort of prop this season because the Kings are dreadful at stopping opposing 3-point shooters. On the season, they are allowing teams to shoot 40.2% from 3-point land, which is dead last in the league. Having Lillard at home against this type of defense is a recipe for disaster, and with a 237 total, this game could easily get up and down. The volume should be there, and the opponent couldn’t be better for Lillard to have another massive game from 3.

The line of over 4.5 3-pointers is slightly favorite, but there is still a -122 out there, which is more than favorable considering the situation. I expect this line to climb throughout the day and feel comfortable taking the position that the Kings will have no answers for Lillard. That the volume gives us plenty of chances for makes. With the Blazers 4.5 point favorites at home, everything sets up perfectly for them to go into All-Star weekend on a high note. You have to imagine Lillard would have a large hand in making that happen.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].