Another crazy trend continues in the NBA, with the game totals going 1-9-1 over/under on Wednesday. The under is now hitting at 61% on the season. The new foul rule change seems to be making an impact on the free throw rate, but it is allowing for a more natural flow of the game with less stoppage time. Thursday night there are six games in action across the league. Let’s dive into the best bets to make tonight and overall NBA betting tips for Thursday, Nov. 18.
Best NBA Betting Picks Tonight | Nov. 18
Wizards vs. Heat
The Wizards had a disappointing loss yesterday to the Hornets, falling 97-87 after holding a 6-point lead at halftime. Washington put up a total of 36 points in the second half against a Hornets defense that is 24th in the league. Kyle Kuzma, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined for 3-for-23 shooting from the field. Dinwiddie is not expected to play due to injury management after coming over the ACL surgery earlier this year. Washington will travel down to Miami on no rest to take on the Heat, who own a 5-1 record at home, with an average margin of victory of 12.5 points per game.
Jimmy Butler returned from a three-game absence with a bang by posting a triple-double in a 113-98 win over the Pelicans yesterday. Butler has no injury designation as of now, but keep an eye on any updates throughout the day, as Miami is on the second half of a back-to-back. Kyle Lowry was absent from their win on Wednesday strictly for rest purposes, so he should be back on the floor tonight. Bam Adebayo has missed the last two games with a knee injury and comes into tonight questionable. If Adebayo is ruled out for Thursday, look for Dewayne Dedmon to get more minutes.
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The Heat have a 5-1 record against the spread at home, while Washington holds a 3-4 record against the spread on the road. The Wizards will need to turn it around quickly, as they are going up against a defense that is only allowing 103 points per game and a shooting percentage of 42.6%, third lowest in the league. Washington’s defense will have a tough test, as Miami ranks fourth in offensive efficiency. Miami is 5-2 in their last seven matchups. Expect Miami to limit the number of rebounds and second-chance opportunities for Washington. They will look to get the win on their home court tonight before heading to Washington on Saturday to take on the Wizards in back-to-back games. Expect Miami to win and cover in tonight’s matchup.
Best Bet for Tonight’s Game: Miami Heat -6.5
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76ers vs. Nuggets
After an 8-2 start to the season, the 76ers have dropped five straight games, all without Joel Embiid. Embiid is expected to miss tonight’s game, as are Danny Green (hamstring) and Matisse Thybulle (COVID). Philadelphia is coming off an 85-point performance against the Jazz and will face a Nuggets defense that ranks third in defensive rating, holding opponents to an impressive 98.9 points per game.
The Nuggets are 9-5 and tied with Utah for top of the Northwest division. Denver has won six straight at home and look to defend their streak on Thursday. Michael Porter Jr. (back) remains out for the foreseeable future. Will Barton is listed as doubtful as he deals with a back injury that has forced him to miss the last two games. With no Jamal Murray, Porter or Barton, the Nuggets will rely heavily on Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon to step up on the offensive end of the floor.
In their last four matchups the total has averaged 200.75 points per game. Both teams rank bottom of the league in pace through the early season. The Nuggets are hitting the under in 71% of their games and have gone under the total in six of eight games at home. Philadelphia totals have gone under in nine of 15 games. With all the injuries that Philadelphia is dealing with, coupled with a matchup against the third-ranked defense on the road, expect the total to follow the trend and go under in Thursday’s matchup.
Best Bet for Tonight’s Game: Total Under 209.5 Points
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