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How I’m Betting Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints Thanksgiving Day Football Today

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NFL best bets betting picks today tonight Thanksgiving Day football betting advice tips strategy Bills vs. Saints Josh Allen over/under moneyline parlay

The Thanksgiving Day schedule of NFL football concludes with the nightcap of the Buffalo Bills traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The spread is 6 points in favor of the Bills, but both teams are coming off fairly lopsided losses on Sunday. The following Bills vs. Saints NFL Betting picks will provide the current odds, betting trends and best NFL bets for the Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup.

NFL Best Bets & Odds: Week 12 Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints

Date: Thursday, Nov. 25, 2021
Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, La.
Coverage: NBC

Buffalo has been relatively healthy throughout this season, but they have not been consistent in the least. They have alternated between a win and a loss in the past six weeks, and when they are good, they look like an elite NFL team. Buffalo has an 18-point victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead. They also scored just 6 points in Jacksonville while losing to the Jaguars and got destroyed by Jonathan Taylor last week, losing 41-15 at home to the Colts. Their passing game could carry them in this matchup, as the Saints are 14th in DVOA against the pass this season.

On the flip side, the Saints have dealt with key injuries all season long, and those continue into this game. While not official yet, it appears they will be without star running back Alvin Kamara for the third straight game, and his backup Mark Ingram is highly questionable. Tight end Adam Trautman sprained his MCL after his most productive game as a pro last week, and to top it off, Trevor Siemian has been the quarterback for the past three games. Starter Jameis Winston suffered a torn ACL, and the Saints are desperate, having lost three straight.

Bills vs. Saints Betting NFL Picks + Odds Shopping

Using Awesemo’s OddsShopper Tool, we can easily compare the NFL odds for Bills. vs. Saints betting across the major sportsbooks. Make sure to check out the OddsShopper tool yourself to get the most up-to-date odds.

Bills vs. Saints NFL Betting Trends

  • Buffalo is 5-4-1 against the spread this season.
  • The over is 5-5 for the Bills this season.
  • The Saints are 5-5 against the spread this season.
  • The over is 6-4 for New Orleans this season.

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Bills vs. Saints Betting Stats

  • The Bills are averaging 29.5 points per game this season (No. 2 in the NFL).
  • The Bills are surrendering 17.6 points per game this season (No. 2 in the NFL).
  • New Orleans is averaging 25.1 points per game this season (No. 14 in the NFL).
  • New Orleans is surrendering 21.8 points per game this season (No. 10 in the NFL).

Bills vs. Saints NFL Best Bet

We are using the new Awesemo NFL Betting Model to figure out what the best bet for Thursday Night Football is tonight. According to the model, betting under the 46.5-point total has an expected ROI of 8%. Every other bet for this game involves a negative ROI except for the Saints to cover the 6-point spread, but the ROI with that wager is 0.1%. With both defenses rating inside the top 10 in points allowed and the top five in DVOA, betting on the under makes a lot of sense. It just becomes even more appealing if the Saints wind up missing more offensive starters.

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