NASCAR makes its annual trip to the Irish Hills of Michigan for 200 laps around the speedway in Brooklyn. Thus, let’s delve into the betting market at BET MGM for the best NASCAR betting odds and picks with outright favorites, top 10s and props bets for Sunday’s Firekeepers Casino 400 race.
NASCAR Betting Odds & Picks: Firekeepers Casino 400
Outright Favorites
Michigan is a two-horse race this week and here’s the studs:
Whether in fantasy or betting, this has become a Kyle Larson week and it started that way as soon as the Indy GP ended. Once the starting grid formula was computed, Larson was deemed the polesitter and the markets reacted. He opened up at a strong +300 on BET MGM, less than half the odds of his two nearest competitors. Betters were already going to start pouncing on Larson considering this is the site of his most NASCAR Cup Series victories (3). Not to mention, the season that Larson has had so far this season. Now he gets the enviable position of the polesitter, a position that has won six races at Michigan since 2013. Larson, himself, has won twice this season from the first starting position. He was a corner away, at Pocono, from making that three for three.
Opening the week at +700 is Kyle Busch. Busch, a two-time winner in the low horsepower package, has found consistency this season that even Larson would be jealous of. His worst finish this season, in the 550 horsepower package, was Homestead where he finished 10th. Since then, Busch has rattled off finishes of third, fifth, first, third, second, first, and second back at Atlanta. Busch, too, should have more wins next to his ledger in this package. However, just like Larson in the first Atlanta race, a slower driver impeded the leader’s progress and allowed the second-place driver to close in and take the lead. Since the odds dropped, Busch has moved up to +650.
Top 10 Bets
Moving down the top-10 board, betters have to scroll down to Austin Dillon (+135) before they find plus money. With Dillon entrenched in a points battle, with his teammate Tyler Reddick, betting on Dillon to chase points makes sense. Reddick is -110 for that same top-10 finish. Both drivers are former winners at Michigan, in the Xfinity Series. However, Dillon’s victory came in a package that looked more like a true superspeedway setup than Reddick’s victory two years ago.
At the same number as Dillon, comes Matt Dibenedetto. Following his 23rd-place finish at Sonoma, Wood Brothers made the crew chief change from Greg Erwin to Jonathan Hassler. While things started off with no improvement, since finishing 10th at Road America, Dibenedetto has gone on to record finishes of ninth, 11th, 11th, and fifth last weekend. Definitely, too little too late for a driver who now needs a win to make the playoffs, it is a promising sign for the No. 21 team in the future. Ford has won the last six Cup races at Michigan and another top-10 from Dibenedetto would be far from surprising. The same Goodyear tire setup being utilized this week incorporates the right-side tires from Kansas and Las Vegas. At Kansas, Dibenedetto finished 11th and was fourth at Kansas — both pre-crew chief change.
Prop Bets
The following is a list of interesting parlays and props being offered by BET MGM this week.
- Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson both to finish in top five: +175
- Kyle Busch, top-five: -120
- Best Finish Position — Race: Brad Keselowski -110 over Joey Logano
- Best Finish Position — Race: Matt Dibenedetto – 135 over Aric Almirola
- Top Ford Car: Brad Keselowski +375
- Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson to finish in the top five: +400
- Chris Buescher and Ryan Newman both to finish in the top 10: +3500
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