NASCAR returns to Atlanta for 400 miles around the aggravated asphalt in the Quaker State 400. I’ve looked at some of the best NASCAR Vegas odds to find some of the best betting lines available this week. Let’s review some of my favorite NASCAR picks as outright winners, top-five bets and props for the Quaker State 400 this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Quaker State 400: NASCAR Betting Picks
Outright Favorites
A return to Atlanta merits a familiar face back atop the outright favorites board. Following Kyle Larson‘s dominating performance at Atlanta earlier this spring, which did not result in a win, Larson opened this week as a +300 favorite. Five days later that number sits at +225, proving that whenever Larson has plus money attached to his odds, the betting public will take those odds. Seeing a similar shaving of odds, Kyle Busch has gone from +800 on Monday to +750 as of now as the second-highest favorite.
Comparatively, Busch has better numbers as far as finishes go versus Larson. For the year, Busch has failed to finish outside of the top 10 in races utilizing the 550-horsepower package. Furthermore, since his win at Kansas, Busch has no finish worse than third in this low-horsepower package. That said, Larson has what matters more to the DFS crowd: Laps led. Through these seven races, Larson is averaging 110 more laps led per race than Busch.
Coming in third in outright odds is Sunday’s pole-sitter, Chase Elliott at +900. This number has not moved all week, suggesting hesitation versus his odds to win one way or the other. Perhaps this is also narrative based, as the last pole sitter to win at Atlanta was Kasey Kahne back in 2006. Before that, bettors have to go all the way back to 1996 when Bobby Labonte won from the first starting position. Since 1991, those two are the pole sitters to claim victory at Atlanta.
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Top Five Bets
As mentioned above, Busch has been knocking down top-fives consistently in this package. Although the odds are not earth-shattering, DraftKings Sportsbook is still offering Busch at +100 odds to finish top five. Similarly, at smaller odds, William Byron currently sits at +155 for a top-five finish. If not for running out of gas as the leader with three laps left in the second Pocono race, Byron would be rolling into Atlanta with three straight top-fives at tracks utilizing the low-horsepower package.
For those seeking higher odds, Chris Buescher is the ultimate lottery ticket for a top-five at +1050. Setting Pocono aside, especially when considering its peculiarity compared to intermediate tracks, Buescher had finished with three straight top-10 finishes at Atlanta, Kansas and Charlotte. Perhaps Buescher can improve on his top-10 finish earlier this spring and push that finish towards the top-five paying off the 10-1 wager.
Quaker State 400 Prop Bets
The following are a list of props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s race at Atlanta:
- Best Finish Group A: William Byron +275
- Best Finish Group F: Ryan Newman +245
- Manufacturer of Race Winner: Toyota +250
- Best Finishing Position Race: Kurt Busch -122 over Christopher Bell
- Best Finishing Position Race: Ryan Newman -115 over Cole Custer
- Top Ford Car: Brad Keselowski +350
- Top Toyota Car: Martin Truex Jr. +225
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