Welcome to The Prop Report presented by No House Advantage. For those new to the site, NHA is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) app that offers prop-based contests across multiple sports. Simply pick your five favorite player props for a given slate, rank them eight (most confident) through one (least confident) and receive those points for each prop that hits. The best part? Instead of facing a house advantage on props like you would with a sportsbook, No House Advantage has purely peer-to-peer contests with big cash prizes. Sign up here or download the app from the App Store to get started. I’m going to give you my three favorite NFL props to utilize in your highest confidence slots for Week 12.
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The Prop Report Presented By No House Advantage | Week 12 NFL Picks
NFL Pick No. 1: Dalvin Cook OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
No House Advantage’s main $15 entry, $2,000-to-first contest offering consists exclusively of the 1 p.m. ET slate of games. I’m going to start by covering my two favorite plays from those, then finish with my top prop from the 4 p.m. trio of matchups. And there is no better way to kick things off than by locking in the fantasy freight train that is Dalvin Cook to score yet another rushing touchdown on Sunday.
The Vikings running back has been completely unstoppable since returning from a mid-season groin injury, averaging 145 rushing yards per game with seven touchdowns to boot. And now every sign is pointing to yet another big game against a weak Carolina defensive unit as a 3-point favorite at home. Cook dominates usage at his position, logging over 80% of running back snaps in three of his past four. He averages 27.3 carries per game since Minnesota’s bye week. And most importantly for our purposes, he gets all of the goal line work. In fact, the DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists Cook as a whopping -400 favorite to score on Sunday. And with 13 of his 14 touchdowns coming on the ground this season, don’t worry about a passing touchdown alone because it’s not happening. Play the over here and thank me later.
NFL Pick No. 2: Philip Rivers OVER 0.5 Interceptions
If you tailed my Thanksgiving picks, you were rewarded with a fourth quarter Andy Dalton pick-six to lock in a 2-0 session. It certainly wasn’t some miraculous call; the over on 0.5 interceptions for most quarterbacks is an Alex Baker-approved plug-and-play strategy for your NHA lineups. The key is generally to identify quarterbacks who will be dropping back the most, seeing the most pressure and attempting the most passes.
Philip Rivers checks a lot of those boxes for us. Since Week 5, Rivers has attempted at least 33 passes in every game and might see a slight uptick to those attempts against a Titans defensive unit that is far more gettable through the air. He’s also immobile to the point that he’ll force extra throws instead of scrambling, another positive when hoping for a single interception. And one big piece of news: In addition to starting running back Jonathan Taylor, starting center Ryan Kelly will be out for Sunday’s matchup. This could play with the Rivers timing, and with a player as volatile as him, that kind of thing matters. I’m always looking for any reason to play overs on 0.5-interception lines on NHA, but it shouldn’t take much more convincing that the over on Rivers is especially good this week.
NFL Pick No. 3: Jerry Jeudy UNDER 52.5 Receiving Yards
In the most 2020 turn of events Saturday afternoon, the Broncos will be without a true starting quarterback on Sunday. Backup Jeff Driskel tested positive for COVID-19, and each of the other three Broncos quarterbacks were deemed close contacts by the league. At the early onset of this news, it sounds as though Denver is prepping practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton to start. Hinton played three years of quarterback at Wake Forest before switching to wide receiver, so there’s at least some level of ability to play the position there.
But this isn’t college football we’re talking about here, and New Orleans has more than just a competent defense. My guess is that even though the Saints hold their opposition to a ridiculously low 74.3 rushing yards per game (second best in the league), that’s all the Broncos’ game plan will consist of on Sunday. Whether it is Hinton or whoever else rotates in to play quarterback, no one’s had any reps at the position all week, let alone knows enough of the playbook to throw the ball downfield in an actual NFL game. Unfortunately, there’s only one Broncos pass catcher prop available on NHA to short with Jerry Jeudy‘s 52.5 receiving yards. But it’s an automatic under and should be used in the eight-point slot of any late-slate lineup you make.
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