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The 7 Most Profitable NBA Player Props Today: Nikola Jokic & Stephen Curry | 12/30/21




This daily NBA betting article will examine the best betting picks and NBA player props each day. Using the Awesemo NBA Player Props Betting against Tool, bettors can maximize their profits and see the best bets with the highest expected return on investment NBA betting today. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these prop bets. The following are the seven best bets for tonight’s slate of four games.

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Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 Points

Update: Bet is not valid as Warriors-Nuggets game has been postponed.

This is the second straight game that Denver and Golden State will face each other, although this affair will be at Ball Arena. On Tuesday the Nuggets defeated the Warriors in San Francisco 89-86 as Jokic and Will Barton combined for 45 points, 22 rebounds and nine assists. Jokic tallied 22 points on 8-for-19 shooting from the field and 0-for-5 from the 3-point line. He also had 22 rebounds, five assists and eight turnovers.

While Jokic is on pace to have another career year, he has been relatively inefficient lately. Jokic is producing just 1.29 points per shot on a season-high 19.2 attempts this month, as he is connecting on 52.2% of his shots and 28.8% from the 3-point line. He has averaged 25.6 points a game over the last three outings despite making only 30 of 77 (38.9%) shots and 2 of 14 (14.2%) from the 3-point line.

Golden State has done a fabulous job defending opposing centers this year. The Warriors are giving up the fourth-fewest points a game (18.8) to centers, as they are limiting them to just 47.3% shooting from the field and 27% from long distance. Moreover, only three frontcourt players have tallied 28 or more points against them all season. Jokic is projected for 25.11 points. OddsShopper gives the under a 64% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 19%.

Matisse Thybulle Under 3.5 Rebounds

This prop seems a little too high, as Thybulle averages 2.3 rebounds a game on the season and grabs just over 5% of all available rebounds for the season. He has registered just three boards over 42 minutes in the two previous games against Brooklyn. Thybulle is projected for 2.95 rebounds tonight. OddsShopper gives the under a 67% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 8%.

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Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 Rebounds

Maxey has not rebounded the ball well this year, as he is grabbing 5.1% of all available rebounds, though he does average 3.5 boards on the season. Maxey, projected for 3.55 rebounds, has hauled down three or more boards in five of his last 10 outings. Plus, Brooklyn has done a poor job at keeping opposing point guards off the glass this season. Opposing lead guards average 8.2 rebounds over the last 10 contests. OddsShopper gives the over a 69% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 10%.

Joel Embiid Under 11.5 Rebounds

The prop seems a tad too high. Embiid has recorded double figure rebounds in each of the last four  and five of the previous six. However, he has grabbed just 17 boards in the two games against the Nets. Brooklyn has allowed the sixth-fewest rebounds to opposing centers this year. OddsShopper gives the over a 58% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 11%.

Stephen Curry Under 6.5 Assists

Update: Warriors-Nuggets game has been postponed.

Curry is doling out an assist at an 18.3% rate which is the third lowest of his career. He registered four assists on Tuesday against Denver, marking the 12th time in his last 13 appearances that he has failed to record at least seven dimes. Curry is projected for 6.24 assists tonight. OddsShopper gives the under a 57% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 11%.

Lauri Markkanen Over 15.5 Points

The Cavaliers head into tonight’s road game against the Wizards very depleted. They have already declared five players out, including Ed Davis, Darius Garland and Ricky Rubio. In addition, Jarrett Allen (conditioning) is doubtful for the game, while Lamar Stephens and Dylan Windler are considered questionable. With the others out, and if Allen is not able to go, Kevin Love, Evan Mobley and Markkanen should be much more involved in the offense.

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Markkanen has a usage rate of 19.3% on the season, and he has been relatively aggressive on that end of the floor recently. While he has struggled with his shot lately, Markkanen has an outstanding matchup against the Wizards. Washington allows the third-most points to opposing power forward this year, and the Wizards have permitted 25.2 points and 2.1 3-pointers on 50.6% shooting from the field and 40.6% from beyond the arc over the last 10 games. Markkanen is projected for 18.71 points. OddsShopper gives the over a 72% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 37%.

James Harden Under 23.5 Points

Harden has been fabulous of late, particularly over the last two games when he had to carry the Nets offensively. Harden has topped the 30-point mark in each of the previous two games, totaling 75 points on 50% (25-for-50) shooting from the field and 41.1% ( 7-for-17) from the 3-point line. He averages 25.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 11.3 assists in December.

Brooklyn will be healthier with Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge having cleared COVID protocols. Therefore, Harden will not have to carry such an offensive burden. Philadelphia has done an excellent job limiting opposing point guards as they permit the sixth-fewest points to the position. The 76ers have been even stingier lately, holding opposing lead guards to 18.5 points on 42.1% shooting over the last 10 contests. Harden, projected for 21.80 points, finished with 20 points, eight assists and five turnovers in an earlier matchup against the 76ers. OddsShopper gives the under a 60% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 14%.

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