Ciryl Gane will take on Derrick Lewis in the main event of UFC 265 on Saturday. While that fight will get the primary focus, there are plenty of others from which to derive betting value. Let’s get into the UFC picks and start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.
UFC Picks & Odds | UFC 265: Gane vs. Lewis
Jose Aldo -115 (William Hill)
Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo battles Pedro Munhoz in UFC 265’s co-main event. Aldo is 2-3 in his most recent fights, losing a title bout to Petr Yan before defeating Marlon Vera at the end of last year. Similarly, Munhoz lost to Aljamain Sterling and Frankie Edgar before securing a win over Jimmie Rivera. Both fighters are accomplished on the feet. Aldo lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute, compared to 3.52 absorbed. Most of this negative ratio comes from his fight against Yan where he lost the striking battle 194-83. However, Aldo is the faster striker. He also has a five-inch reach advantage over Munhoz. Munhoz himself has a negative striking ratio, landing 5.60 significant strikes while absorbing 5.87. On the mat Aldo also has a strong ground game. While he does not always look to implement it, Aldo has strong wrestling and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He has 91% takedown defense, allowing him to keep the fight in a standing position. Aldo’s advantages make him a solid bet as a -115 favorite.
Casey Kenney -125 (SugarHouse)
Casey Kenney faces Song Yadong as a -125 favorite. Kenney enters this fight with a 3-2 record since the start of 2020. His only losses came against fighters near the top of the division in Dominick Cruz and Merab Dvalishvili. Yadong is 1-1 in his most recent fights, with a win over Marlon Vera and a loss to Kyler Phillips in his most recent fight. On the feet Yadong holds an edge, landing 4.35 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.64. Yadong is the more technical striker, but Kenney’s forward pressure can give fighters issues. He lands 4.81 significant strikes himself while absorbing 4.30, and Kenney can use his striking to set up takedowns. Kenney averages 1.10 takedowns per bout and 39% accuracy. This creates an enormous mismatch against Yadong, who defends takedowns at just 56%. Yadong has now allowed 10 combined takedowns in his last three fights. With a clear advantage on the mat, Kenney is a worthwhile bet at -125.
Drako Rodriguez -115 (BetMGM)
Drako Rodriguez battles Vince Morales as a -115 favorite. Rodriguez enters this fight with a 7-2 professional record. After recording a win on Dana White’s Contender Series against Mana Martinez, Rodriguez lost his true UFC debut against Aiemann Zahabi. On the other side, Morales is 1-4 in the UFC, with his only win coming against Zahabi. However, Morales’ most recent fight ended in a TKO defeat via leg kicks at the hands of Chris Gutierrez. Since then Morales tore his Achilles in training, making him an unknown heading into this fight. On the feet Morales has shown solid volume, landing 4.22 significant strikes per minute. However, he has glaring defensive weaknesses, including the inability to check leg kicks. Rodriguez is a diverse striker, throwing plenty of kicks. He has a miniscule sample in the UFC, but his regional tape suggests more forward pressure than his 2.57 significant strikes landed indicate. Similarly, Rodriguez landed one takedown in his five minutes of cage time. Morales has a wrestling background but still possesses just 55% takedown defense. While this is still a low-level fight, Rodriguez appears to hold multiple advantages. Coming in as a slight favorite, Rodriguez looks like another sharp addition to the UFC 265 betting portfolio.
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