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The Best Bets for UFC Vegas 31 Makhachev vs. Moises: Expert UFC Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions | Saturday, July 17, 2021

Matt Gajewski

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A number of bets standout as strong values ahead of this week’s UFC Vegas 31: Makhachev vs. Moises card. With the combination of safe picks and potential blow-up spots, there is plenty of high-value UFC picks potential this weekend. Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool remains a crucial key to maximizing profits in these betting markets. Let’s get into the best UFC Vegas odds and betting picks so we can start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.

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UFC Vegas 31 Odds & Betting Picks: Makhachev vs. Moises

Miesha Tate -130 (William Hill)

Miesha Tate makes her return to the Octagon against Marion Reneau. Reneau has lost four straight and publicly admitted this will be her last fight. Conversely, Tate looks to rebound from her career-altering losses to Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington. Both fighters enter this bout with a negative striking ratio. Reneau has struggled in particular of late, losing the striking battle in each of her last three fights. On the mat Tate has an advantage with her strong wrestling base. Tate averages 2.06 takedowns per bout and has 31% takedown accuracy. This should directly exploit the poor 50% takedown defense of Reneau. In fact, Reneau has been taken down at least once in each of her last 10 fights. She has allowed multiple takedowns in five of those bouts as well. At the very least, takedowns offer Tate the ability to solidify rounds. While Tate has not stepped foot in the Octagon since 2016, she still has multiple advantages over a fighter in Reneau well past her prime. Tate remains the sharp side of this bet at -130.

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Sergey Morozov +130 (William Hill)

Sergey Morozov takes on Khalid Taha as a +130 underdog. Taha is 1-2-1 in the UFC after his win over Bruno Silva became a no contest due to a failed drug test. In his most recent appearance he lost a decision to Raoni Barcelos. On the other side, Morozov dropped his only UFC bout to highly touted prospect Umar Nurmagomedov. Taha is a powerful striker, but he has not shown good volume in the UFC. He lands just 2.86 significant strikes per minute and has 35% accuracy. Meanwhile, Morozov has a negative striking ratio, but he has just one fight in his sample size. Morozov utilizes a diverse array of strikes in combination, including kicks. On the mat Morozov appears to have a solid advantage. Morozov allowed five takedowns and did not secure any himself against Nurmagomedov. However, he has a background in jiu-jitsu and wrestled well on the regional scene. On the other side, Taha is 0-for-2 on takedown attempts in the UFC while allowing 10 himself. His 61% takedown defense leaves him vulnerable to fighters with a strong ground game. Fitting this mold, Morozov is a solid underdog to target at +130 on this card.


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Billy Quarantillo +140 (PointsBet)

Billy Quarantillo, another underdog, takes on Gabriel Benitez in the men’s featherweight division. Quarantillo enters this fight with a 4-1 UFC record. After four straight wins to open his career, he dropped his most recent bout against Gavin Tucker. Meanwhile, Benitez is 5-4 in the UFC with a knockout win over Justin Jaynes in his most recent bout. On the feet Benitez has a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. He lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute, which could take advantage of Quarantillo’s 42% striking defense. However, Quarantillo fights with extreme forward pressure, evidenced by his 7.03 significant strikes landed per minute. On the mat Quarantillo also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He averages 1.28 takedowns per bout, which could take advantage of Benitez’s 56% takedown defense. Benitez has not faced a takedown attempt in four straight fights, but he allowed 10 total takedowns in a pair of bouts against Enrique Barzola and Jason Knight earlier in his career. Quarantillo has struggled against wrestlers like Tucker at points in his career as well. However, Benitez does not have the wrestling pedigree of Tucker. For Quarantillo, withstanding kicks and getting the fight to the ground is his path to victory. At +140 odds, Quarantillo continues to be one of the sharpest UFC betting picks on this card.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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