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Bet Danny Chavez +100 at UFC Vegas 33: Expert UFC Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions | Saturday, July 31, 2021

Matt Gajewski



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This weekend’s UFC Vegas 33 card features a main even between Uriah Hall and Sean Strickland. Here I will break down some of the top UFC expert picks for Saturday’s card, including the moneyline on Danny Chavez.

UFC Vegas 33 Betting Picks: Hall vs. Strickland

Ashley Yoder -139 (Bet Rivers)

Fighting in the women’s strawweight division, Ashley Yoder takes on Jinh Yu Frey as a -139 favorite. Yoder enters this fight with an 8-7 professional record, but she is 3-6 in the UFC. She most recently defeated Miranda Granger before losing to Angela Hill. On the other side, Frey formerly fought in the atomweight division with Invicta. She has a 10-6 professional record. In the UFC she is 1-2 with losses to Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee. She defeated Gloria de Paula earlier this year to pick up her first win. Because Yoder is a true strawweight, she has a four-inch height and reach advantage over Frey. Both fighters have a negative striking differential to this point in their careers, but Yoder’s length should help her here. She also has the superior level of competition. On the mat Yoder is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and lands 1.33 takedowns on average. Frey lands 1.06 herself but already was submitted by Hansen at the UFC level. With edges across the board, Yoder is a sharp bet at -139 ahead of UFC Vegas 33.

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Kyung Ho Kang -130 (Points Bet)

Kyung Ho Kang faces Rani Yahya as a -130 favorite. Kang enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak after knocking off Pingyuan Liu in December of 2019. Similarly, Yahya is coming off a win over Ray Rodriguez earlier this year. Neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the feet. Yahya is a jiu-jitsu specialist who lands 2.89 takedowns per bout. However, he is not the best offensive wrestler, with just 33% takedown accuracy. Kang has 71% takedown defense and lands 2.53 himself. Yahya has also struggled with wrestlers at times in his career. Ricky Simon took Yahya down four times, which has been a common theme in his losses. On top of Kang’s strong wrestling, he also possesses striking advantages. Kang has a three-inch height and six-inch reach advantage here. Yahya also has a negative striking ratio. He lands 1.57 significant strikes per minute compared to 1.70 strikes absorbed. Kang lands 2.52 significant strikes per minute himself. Because of his size advantages, Kang should dictate where this fight plays out. With strengths on the feet and the mat, Kang’s odds make him a worthwhile bet on this fight card.

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Danny Chavez +100 (William Hill)

Danny Chavez faces Kai Kamaka on the prelims. Chavez has a win over T.J. Brown and a loss to Jared Gordon in his most recent fights. On the other side, Kamaka has a 1-2 record in the UFC. Kamaka lost to Jonathan Pierce and Brown after winning his debut against Tony Kelley. Both fighters have negative striking ratios heading into this fight. Chavez lands 2.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.17. However, Kamaka has displayed similar striking patterns with questionable durability. Two of his four losses came via knockout, reflected in his 6.26 significant strikes. On the mat Chavez has advantages in the wrestling exchanges. Chavez lands 2.50 takedowns per bout and defends them at 84%. Kamaka lands 2.66 takedowns himself, but he only defends them at 41%. Kamaka has been taken down seven times combined in his last two fights, giving Chavez a path to victory here. At +100 with a superior strength of schedule, getting Chavez as a slight underdog is a steal ahead of UFC Vegas 33.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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