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NHL Betting Picks: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Anaheim Ducks | Feb. 9
The Golden Knights enter this game ranked sixth in goals scored on the season and sporting a 7-0-1 record. No team has been able to beat the Knights in regulation yet, as they have been outscoring opponents with one of the better offenses in the league. While a portion of the Knights hot start is schedule related — eight of their games have come against the Ducks, Kings and Coyotes — this is also a solid team we’re talking about. They rank second in the league in expected goals rate (xGF%) and have also allowed just the third-fewest scoring chances against. The scary part about the Knights is that there may actually be room for improvement. Robin Lehner, who most figured would take the majority of the starts this year, sports just a .890 save percentage entering this game, and their power play is operating at just a 15.6% rate — 10th worst in the league. Mark Stone is off to a career starts with 14 points in nine games, which is well above his 0.87 career points per game.
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On the flip side, Anaheim enters this game off a split series with the Sharks where both of the two games went to shootouts. The Ducks have held up well against weaker competition this year and enter with a 5-5-3 record, with three of those wins coming against the Kings, Coyotes and Sharks. Anaheim has been as expected this year on offense (aka bad) and enter this game last in goals per game and with the ninth-worst xGF%.
Perhaps there’s a little positive regression due soon for this team in the goal-scoring department. They are creating more chances than a couple of other cellar dwellers, but their lineup is devoid of any elite scorers, and the duo of Max Comtois and Carter Rowney leads the team with 6 points each through 13 games. They have received solid goaltending in spots from Ryan Miller and John Gibson, but even that has failed of late. Gibson is coming off a terrible game in which he allowed three third-period goals in the Ducks 5-4 shootout loss to the Sharks.
Best Bet: Golden Knights/Ducks over 5.5 goals -105 (Pointsbet)
We have two teams at the opposite ends of the offensive spectrum here, so obviously if we’re taking the over, we expect the Golden Knights scorers to win out here. Vegas has simply been an over machine thus far, as seven of their nine games have featured 6 or more goals, and six of nine have featured 7 or more. The Ducks are sixth in goals allowed per game, but we have already seen a little regression in the their net over the past week or so. The fact they come into this game ranked second in quality scoring chances allowed means more could be on the way.
On the flip side, Vegas’ defensive numbers have been skewed a bit by the opponents they’ve faced thus far. They may rank fourth in goals against per game, but a lot of that has been based on a hot start by veteran Marc-Andre Fleury (4-0, with a .944 save percentage). Ultimately the trend with Vegas against these weaker teams has been to bet on them getting to 4 or more goals, which has happened now in seven of their nine games. The fact we’re getting near even money to take the over 5.5 goals at a couple of spots (outlined in the Awesemo Oddsshopper tool) makes this one of the best values out there tonight for me. Keep taking the overs on these low numbers for Vegas, as their offense against these bottom dwellers has proven good enough to push totals to 6 or 7 goals most nights.
Bonus: Kings Moneyline +100 vs. San Jose Sharks (DraftKings)
These two teams look pretty identical on paper. The Kings rank third-to-last in xGF%, while the Sharks are second-to-last in the same stat. The Sharks come in with a -12 goal differential, the Kings have a -10 differential. If anything, the Kings have been the better team since they have allowed fewer goals per game and scored more over a larger sample than the Sharks. The fact that the Kings are home underdogs here doesn’t seem right, so taking advantage with a simple moneyline bet on Los Angeles is something I don’t mind exploring.
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