As we prepare for a Monday Night Football double-header, we’ll focus on some NFL picks using OddsShopper to identify the best bets for the primetime game in Green Bay Packers versus the Atlanta Falcons. With some intriguing player matchups in this battle of 3-0 Green Bay looking to stay undefeated against 0-3 Atlanta, we’ll try to take advantage of the best bets Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool has to offer.
With some evidence of softer player proposition lines in regards to where yardage is being set on over/unders, we’ll take a look at some season stats and trends to help identify value using the OddsShopper tool in order to make the most of what the sportsbooks have in store. Speaking of over/unders set, this battle between the Packers and Falcons on Monday Night Football features a game total of 57 points, insinuating a high-octane offensive game every step of the way (although Sunday featured a couple of those that didn’t come close, but I digress).
Let’s take a brief timeout on the NFL DFS Showdown and Single-Game lineups to take a gander at what the Vegas oddsmakers have to offer, and what discrepancies may lie in waiting to place some worthy investments, as both offenses aren’t without their shares of significant injuries with other players having a chance to fill voids.
* NFL Odds as of writing. Click HERE for up to date odds using the OddsShopper tool.
NFL Picks + Odds Shopping: Monday Night Football Best Bets | Packers vs. Falcons
NFL Pick: TE Robert Tonyan, OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet)
You’ll first notice that this proposition bet is only offered on PointsBet at the time of writing this, with slightly increased juice by comparison to other standard lines at -110. Yet, when it comes to such specific player props, -115 tends to be a going rate more often than not, so there isn’t too much of an excess risk involved.
Aaron Rodgers‘ weapons are thinning by the day. Davante Adams just ruled himself out, wide receiver Allen Lazard is now on injured reserve for at least four weeks with a core/abdominal injury that required surgery, and tight end Marcedes Lewis is doubtful for Monday Night Football. Rodgers finds himself with Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the primary option among the Packers remaining receivers. This adds further fuel to the notion that running back Aaron Jones will pick up much of the burden, but it leaves the passing game with a one-dimensional quandary.
In Adams’ absence last week against the Saints, the Packers didn’t pound the ball with Jones any more than usual, and Rodgers threw for three touchdowns to three different receivers. One of them went to tight end Robert Tonyan, who has gradually become a factor of reliability for Rodgers over the past two games. In fact, regardless of the injuries in the receiving corps this season, Tonyan has been involved in 61.6% of snap counts per game, never falling below 60%. Last week he managed five targets for 50 yards in addition to said touchdown, and he was the second-most targeted player on the Packers offense, trailing Lazard by just one target.
Against a Falcons defense searching for answers, along with an injury-depleted Packers receiving corps, this scenario may be the recipe for success for Tonyan. The Falcons defense has allowed 27 receptions for 238 yards and four touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, including 7.21 yards per target and an 81.8% catch rate surrendered to the position. With no Lazard or Adams, other Packers will have to soak up a fair share of targets when Jones isn’t carrying the ball. Additional food for thought is the advantage of the Packers offensive line, which should provide Rodgers the additional time to work through progressions and distribute through the air.
With injuries riddling the beneficiaries of Rodgers’ target distribution, and a Falcons defense allowing 79.33 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the over on a 38.5-yard receiving total with modest juice for Tonyan appears to be that much more within reach.
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NFL Pick: RB Todd Gurley, OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-112, SugarHouse, BetRivers, DraftKings SportsBook)
From a betting standpoint (daily fantasy included), it’s been a while since we’ve been able to stake confidence in the performance of running back Todd Gurley. Since landing with his new home in Atlanta, Gurley has been handled with care with consideration for his degenerate knees, involved in 53.7% of the Falcons offensive snaps while averaging 65.66 rushing yards per game over his first three games with the Dirty Birds.
Most recently, in a close loss to the Bears, Gurley netted 80 yards and a touchdown on the ground over 14 rushing attempts (with Brian Hill adding 58 yards and a touchdown on nine rushes), and Chicago is among the middle of the pack in defense versus running backs. Although star receiver Julio Jones was absent in the Week 3 outing, the Falcons actually threw for four more attempts and had nine fewer rushes than the previous week, so whether Jones sits out for Monday Night Football in Week 4 should hold little bearing on Gurley’s snaps or carries. However, if fellow receiver Calvin Ridley is to also be sidelined in tandem with Jones, that detail may very well hold weight for Gurley’s snap count in his favor.
The Packers rush defense has been nothing of the success story in contrast to that of their masterfully conducted offense this season, as they’ve allowed 100.33 yards per game and 5.38 yards per carry (third worst in league) to opposing running backs. The Falcons offensive line may have a slight disadvantage on paper against Green Bay’s front seven in both pass protection and run blocking, although nothing glaring that stands out with Matt Ryan being sacked just five times all season.
Even if both Jones and Ridley are to play, they’re going to be dealing with nagging injuries, which lends to the thought that Dan Quinn (while trying to save his head coaching job) may be increasing the carries in order to keep the ball away from Rodgers and Jones while also attacking the Packers defense at their weakest point. The availability of Ridley and Jones will be a factor to keep your eye on leading up to kickoff, though I like the over on a total of 56.5 rushing yards for Gurley regardless of whether they do in fact suit up.
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