The NFL futures market is constantly on the move, even throughout the season, which is always worth monitoring, and sometimes leaving tremendous value on the table. Let’s dive into some of the notable moves in the futures market heading into Week 7 and break down some possible NFL picks.
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Player Futures
NFL Pick: MVP
Russell Wilson (-115) actually became a bigger favorite following Week 6, and he was on bye — reaching as high as -139 on PointsBet. Does he deserve to be favored? Absolutely. But when books offer essentially a pick ‘em versus one player, we have to consider the field. We know what players like Patrick Mahomes (+600) and Lamar Jackson (+1800) are capable of, and unfortunately, we also know situations like Dak Prescott happen.
You’ve missed the value on Wilson if you haven’t bet him, but I do think there’s some value in betting the field. If you wanted a specific name, it’s tough not to take Mahomes, but playing the field and leaving every outcome but Wilson taking the award as a win for the bet is pretty enticing.
NFL Pick: Offensive ROY
Justin Herbert (+155) was on bye last week, and Joe Burrow (+260) didn’t do anything notable, so there wasn’t much movement at the top of the board. But there were some rumblings lower down on the board worth monitoring.
Tua Tagovailoa (+900) hasn’t even been on our radar, since there was a realistic possibility we didn’t see him until very late in the season, if at all. But the Dolphins shocked us and named Tua the starter moving forward. I don’t love the situation for Tua, and feel the current odds are an easy pass. But congrats if you’re someone holding a 25-1 or 50-1 ticket from the last couple of weeks. Those might be worth selling if that’s an option for you …
Justin Jefferson (+750) had another massive game last week against the Falcons, and his odds rose accordingly from the +1700 range. But I’m still somewhat surprised you can get Chase Claypool (+1600) for so much cheaper. Jefferson may put up huge numbers as the Vikings tank their season away, but Claypool has a chance to develop into the WR1 on a Super Bowl contender, and has to be considered a favorite if one of the QBs doesn’t pull away.
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Team Futures
Division Winner
Betting divisions in-season is one of my favorite ways to get an edge. Here’s a look at some divisions that might be either not priced appropriately, or we have reason to believe the line will move a lot by next week.
AFC North
The Ravens (-149) are getting pretty cheap here, so if you like them, there’s a few ways to look at this. First of all, you could just bet them now if you’re happy with the price, as the team is on bye. But the Steelers (+150) matchup with the Titans should be very telling. If you like the Titans, obviously you’re betting Baltimore now. But if you like Pittsburgh, you can let that game play out, and lock in the Ravens at an even cheaper price next week. Of course, we see Baltimore and Pittsburgh go head-to-head next week, and Baltimore sits as a 5.5-point favorite. It shouldn’t take long for the Ravens to jump in the standings. The Steelers are yet to slip up, and all the Ravens have done is lose to the Chiefs, although the gap between the two teams in that game may be baked into the price here.
NFC South
I’m fortunate enough to have the Bucs (-110) at +350 from right when the Tom Brady news broke, and while I hate getting back in a worse value, we have to consider it here. The Saints (+120) are banged up with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ruled out Sunday against the Panthers, and have been pretty awful on the defensive side of the ball. The Bucs seem to finally be getting healthy, have arguably one of the best defenses in the NFL, and if you care, they also just signed Antonio Brown.
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