PGA DFS: Winning Element for the 3M Open Picks & Ownership Allocations with Dustin Johnson

All my PGA DFS picks this week and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA picks material, the 3M Open, and as always, it is FREE!

Article Index

• Key/Legend
• Last week recap
• TV schedule and weather update
• My entire player pool
• Notes on the chalkiest players

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Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

• Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
• PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%.
• Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely will not have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
• Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. This section will identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
• Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
• Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
• Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

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Last Week’s Recap

Last week was the most tilting week one could imagine, as Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth finished first and second. Add the fact that it was a major with the biggest prize pools available, and to say I was utterly disappointed with my week would be an understatement. I was 0-for-13 in in the $100 millionaire maker, while FanDuel yet again proved to be much better for me.

Check out Jason Rouslin’s expert PGA DFS Value Picks this week for the 3M Open.

PGA DFS Picks This Week | 3M Open

The Weather

There will be mild to moderate wind the first few days, with captures getting into the mid-90s by midday. Gusts could reach as high as 20 to 25 mph but nothing consistently more than 10 mph.

The Favorites

Only Brian Stuard is teeing it up this week among the favorites, and he is viable in certain spots.

Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

• Total expected player pool: 62
• Expected number of lineups created: 300
• Main Lineups:
  • FanDuel $555 x 2
  • DraftKings $200

Dustin Johnson ($11,500/$12,200) and Tony Finau ($10,700/$11,500)

Given the field this week, the only thing Johnson needs to avoid is a withdraw. If he plays all four days, there is no chance he will not wind up in the top 10. However, there is certainly an element of risk playing him, knowing if he has another bad start like last year, he is apt to head for the airport rather than grind out a cut.

Finau is coming in off his best ball-striking week in some time and comes to a course where he has played quite well the first two trips. Playing both of them will inevitably lead to fading Louis Oosthuizen altogether and likely being way underweight on Patrick Reed.

Sergio Garcia ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel)

Garcia has four straight top-20s, as his ball striking is working well right now. Gamers can only hope he decides to putt with his eyes closed again, however. That yielded a win at the Sanderson Farms, another birdie fest like the 3M is supposed to be this week. If not starting with Finau or Johnson, it should be either Garcia or the next guy on this list, Matthew Wolff.

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Matthew Wolff ($9,700 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel)

Wolff, who has only played three times since April, is definitely volatile. But when he has played on distance-heavy courses like the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the U.S. Open, he has done fine. Wolff put up around 70 points in each of them and is still showing he can score and make the cut. His lone missed cut was at the Travelers Championship, possibly one of the worst setups for him on tour, and that is likely still staining people. He is expected to be close to 10% owned this, and he and Garcia are a great pair to get away from some of the higher-priced/higher-owned golfers.

Robert MacIntyre ($9,000 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel)

MacIntyre looks to build on his resume after a top-10 last week at the British Open. It could have been better than that even, as he was 8 under heading to the 14th, the easiest hole on the course. But the over-aggressive play with the driver put the ball out of bounds, and he made bogey. He steadied himself coming in and still placed well, but it could have been even better. If the momentum carries over this week, nothing is stopping MacIntyre from winning the 3M Open this week.

Dylan Frittelli ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel)

Having found a little something at the John Deere Classic, Frittelli’s play looked better than the result, which ended up in a missed cut. That play would manifest into his best finish in well over a year, coming in fifth last week at the British Open. That spells a run of good form for him. Reasonably priced given his upside, Frittelli should be well under 10% owned this week.

Doug Ghim and Hank Lebioda ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,100/$9,700 FanDuel)

These two are the same price on DraftKings but have a rather wide discrepancy on FanDuel, and that will dictate how to use both of these golfers. They both have good finishes here and are in good recent form. Lebioda is working on three straight top-10s and two made cuts, while Ghim came in 18th in his last outing and 18th here last year.

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Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500/$8,300)

There is only one concerning thing for Vegas this week, and it should not be a concern all that much: He is scheduled to tee it up in the Olympics next week. If he cared so greatly about winning a gold medal over his standing on the PGA Tour, he would have already been there. But he is in Minnesota looking for his eighth straight made cut, and he has finished in the top 11 three times in those eight events.

Kyle Stanley ($7,300/$8,500)

Like Vegas, Stanley is working on seven straight made cuts, but he will not be heading to the Olympics next week. The other difference between the two is that Vegas has putted much better than Stanley, as Stanley on has one top-10 and only two top-26s over those seven events. The other starts have him finishing in the 40 range while scoring about 70 DFS points. If the putter wakes up just slightly, those top-40s will turn into top-20s quickly, which would easily pay off this salary.

Gambles Below $7,000 this week

Kevin Tway ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel)

Tway played well last week at the Barbasol, marking his fourth straight made cut, and he is 5-for-6 since he returned from injury, Tway seems to be moving in the right direction. Last week he was not overly impressive with any part of his game but also did not lose strokes in any facet either, showing that everything seems to be clicking right now. It may not be to his utmost potential, but it is trending towards that.

Chalk Zone (Golfers Projected for At Least 10% Ownership)

E= Equal-Weight to projected ownership.

U= Underweight to projected ownership.

O= Overweight to projected ownership.

1. Louis Oosthuizen (U)
2. Patrick Reed (E)
3. Cameron Tringale (E to U)
4. Emiliano Grillo (E to O)
5. Cam Davis (E to U)
6. Bubba Watson (U)
7. Keegan Bradley (E)
8. Lucas Herbert (U)
9. Maverick McNealy (O)
10. Luke List (O)
11. J.T. Poston (E)
12. Steve Stricker (U)

Of these golfers not named Daniel Berger, Kevin Streelman has the highest-projected points with 80. Check out the rest of the field’s projections here.

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

1. Rickie Fowler
2. Patton Kizzire
3. Charl Schwartzel
4. Gary Woodland
5. Cameron Champ

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

1. Chris Kirk
2. Brandt Snedeker
3. Ryan Moore
4. Chez Reavie
5. Joel Dahmen
6. Adam Schenk
7. Mito Pereira
8. Richy Werenski
9. Patrick Rodgers
10. Charles Howell III
11. Lanto Griffin
12. Beau Hossler
13. Chez Reavie
14. Brian Stuard
15. Bo Hoag
16. Pat Perez
17. Sam Ryder
18. Tom Hoge
19. Roger Sloan
20. Joseph Bramlett

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

1. Keith Mitchell
2. Will Gordon
3. Byeong Hun An
4. Jason Dufner
5. K.H. Lee
6. Austin Eckroat
7. Satoshi Kodaira
8. Robby Shelton
9. Chase Seiffert
10. John Pak
11. Norman Xiong
12. Quade Cummins
13. Nick Watney

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