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PGA DFS: The Winning Element for the Turkish Airlines OpenPremium content

Jason Rouslin

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Golf Betting: Matthias Schwab heads to Qatar in search of his first win.

All of my Fantasy Golf PGA DFS Picks content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of our week-long material. It’s the pinnacle of where my research has taken me over the week and the culmination of the other three articles.

I am primarily a GPP player and enjoy making 100 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs.

Article index

  • Key/Legend
  • Last week recap
  • TV schedule and Weather update
  • My entire player pool
  • Personal favorites
  • Notes on the chalkiest players
  • #NarrativeStreet

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

  • Core: These golfers are the ones we will start with every lineup. At least three from our core will be in every one of our lineups.
  • PF’s: We all have “our” guys, and these are ours. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven– and they are quite common. Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Brian HarmanCollin Morikawa, and Brian Stuard. 
  • Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. These players are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
  • Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens every week due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup “alternates” that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
  • #NarrativeStreet: These golfers must fit one of the following criteria: 1. Live in the area of golf course 2. From the area of the golf course 3. Have something to play for (i.e., exemptions into Majors or chasing a PGA Tour card)
  • Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups. Or at least what we are advocating.
  • Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
  • Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
  • CH: Course History.
  • RF: Recent Form.
  • Sprinkles: Guys that may make one or two lineups at the most.
  • Higher Dollar: contests with buy-in amounts over $100.
  • MME: Multiple mass entries usually price range is $3,5,7,33,44.
  • EW: Equal-weight to the expected ownership.
  • OW: Overweight the expected ownership.
  • UW: Underweight the expected ownership.

Last Week Article Recap

Back to back winning weeks are nice! This time it was a blend of a good base lineup in the 555 getting to the second cash level, and cashing 77 out of my 150 MME entries in the $8 dollar, with the two top lineups finishing 9th and 11th. Good enough for a 4x return in that contest. A late switch on FanDuel from Xander to Fleetwood in the $333 (so silly) cost me a profitable week there.

 

Tournament TV and Weather Update:

TV:

Golf Channel

4 AM- 9Am Thursday Thur Sundau

Weather:

It looks like Ideal temperatures and conditions for the four days.

Opening Remarks: 

The first of the Race to Dubai playoffs this week gives us our fourth no cut tomorrow in a row. Targeting birdie makers have worked in the past few weeks and players that are hitting a lot of greens since it’s one of the few stats we have. So, I’ll do a blend of that with some long term ‘birdie’ form for my core this week.

Player Focus: 

Notes:

  • Core: 8 Golfers
  • Favorites: 0 golfers
  • Fringe: 12 golfers
  • Alternates: 14 golfers
  • Hole in One’s: 9 golfers
  • Chalk zone: 0 golfers
  • Total: 43 golfers

Core Players

75 Players: No-Cut Event

Bob Macintyre ($9,700) & Matthias Schwab ($9,600)

Woof… A pair of guys that I paid 14,000 K total for last week I’m going to have pay 19,300 for this week. Yikes. But, a lot of factors in play including the most important one, the strength of the field. Still, they are in the best form of anyone in the field, but since their prices are so much higher than last week, and I still want to be able to build semi-balanced and not rely on Sean Crocker all the time, I’ll limit my exposure to around 25-30%. Down about 15 % from last week.

  • Target Allocation (MME): 25-30%

Erik Van Rooyen ($9,200)

Pretty standard for EVR’s game, he drove it well and putted well, but the in-between was a struggle. He only hit 56% of his greens last week, a stat that will need to change for the better this week if he wants to win, or come in the top 5.

  • Target Allocation (MME): 25-30%

Kurt Kitayama ($8,600)

Hitting 2/3rds of his greens last week is good enough for me to buy into this sneaky long, streaky player out of Chico California. He ranked 53rd in bridie average and third in driving distance this year on the European Tour.

  • Target Allocation (MME): 25-30%

Andrea Pavan ($8,200)

I fully suspect gamers to go to Paul Waring after last week’s top 10 and a cheaper price tag than Pavan. So I’ll use the same GIR as Waring (72%) last week and a worse putter, along with lower ownership to make my pick here. He’s also played some of the most steady golf over the last month or so of anyone in the field.

  • Target Allocation (MME): 25-30%

Adri Arnaus ($7,800)

He’s the first of my trio of Euro favs I’ll play this week. For Adri, two things checked the box for me this week in one of my biggest plays of the slate.

One he didn’t come in the top 5 last week.

Two even if he did, there is no cut.

A driver heavy course where he can use his length and precision off the tee to set up a plethora of birdie chances. Give me all the Arnaus this week.

  • Target Allocation (MME): 40-50%

Guido Migliozzi ($6,800) & Sean Crocker ($6,000)

I’ve said it a few times with these two golfers I’ll let their putter beat me, especially if they are priced below 7K. Their strokes gained tee to green numbers are always some of the best in the field, and when we don’t have to worry about a cold putter the first few days, it makes me all the more inclined to play them. Fire em up!

  • Target Allocation (MME): 35-40%

 

Fringe golfers (targeted to 15-20% ownership and may get in a higher dollar- and not part of the Chalk-Zone)

  1. Justin Rose
  2. Patrick Reed
  3. Shane Lowry
  4. Francesco Molinari
  5. Alex Noren
  6. Thomas Pieters**
  7. Eddie Pepperell
  8. Tom Lewis
  9. Jordan L. Smith
  10. Jorge Campillo
  11. David Lipsky
  12. Masahiro Kawamura

Alternates (5-15% owned)

  1. Ty Hatton
  2. Matt Wallace
  3. Bernd Wiesberger
  4. Danny Willett
  5. Haotong Li
  6. Sam Horsfield
  7. Joost Luiten
  8. Kiradech Aphinbarnarat
  9. Thomas Detry
  10. Chris Paisley
  11. Lucas Bjerregaad
  12. Lee Westwood
  13. Zander Lombard
  14. Alvaro Quiros

Hole in One’s (1-5% owned)

  1. George Coetzee
  2. Marcus Kinhult
  3. Andy Sullivan
  4. Jochim B. Hansen
  5. Ryan Fox
  6. Ross Fisher
  7. Matthew Southgate
  8. Shubhankar Sharma
  9. Jason Scrinver

The pool of Favorites:

  1. Jordan Spieth (Fringeish)

ChalkZone: Covering how I’m playing anyone ranked in the top 20 projected ownership by Awesemo not listed above. 

Weights to projected ownership:

  • E=Equal
  • U= Under
  • O= Over

Players

  • N/A

#NarrativeStreet

Field Changes

  • N/A

Monday Qualifiers

  • N/A

Sponsor Invites

  • N/A for WGC’s

Hometown Heros either by the college or grown-up:

Players from Turkey:

  • Taner Yamac

Until next time everyone.

Cheers, Jason.

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now two years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of James as well as two Labradors (Choco and Bella) and he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, or somewhere hopefully lost in nature with his dogs guiding him along the way. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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