All of my Fantasy Golf PGA DFS content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of our week-long material. It’s the pinnacle of where my research has taken me over the week and the culmination of the other three articles.
I am primarily a GPP player and enjoy making 100 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs.
Article index
- Key/Legend
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and Weather update
- My entire player pool
- Personal favorites
- Notes on the chalkiest players
- #NarrativeStreet
Key/Legend
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: we will start with these golfers every lineup. At least three from our core will be in every one of our lineups.
- PF’s: we all have our guys, and these are ours. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common. Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa and Brian Stuard.Â
- Chalk Zone: these golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: on the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- #NarrativeStreet: these golfers must fit one of the following criteria: 1. Live in the area of golf course 2. From the area of the golf course 3. Have something to play for (i.e., exemptions into Majors or chasing a PGA Tour card)
- Recommended Allocation: the percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: the percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: the difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
- CH: course history.
- RF: recent form.
- Sprinkles: guys that may make one or two lineups at the most.
- Higher Dollar: contests with buy-in amounts over $100.
- MME: mass multi-entries.
- EW: equal weight to the expected ownership.
- OW: overweight the expected ownership.
- UW: underweight the expected ownership.
Last Week Article Recap
Cam Smith was a part of my big-dollar lineups. He got the FanDuel one where he was 5% owned, and I took first place with a mixture of guys from the core, including Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa and Lanto Griffin.
Tournament TV and Weather Update
TV
PGA Tour Live:Â
All-day Thursday and Friday with featured groups.
Golf Channel:
3-7 p.m. EST Thursday-Sunday
Weather
It looks like perfect conditions all four days in the desert with little to no wind.
Player Focus
Notes
- Core: seven Golfers
- Favorites: Two Brians (one fringe one alt)
- Fringe: 12 golfers
- Alternates: 14 golfers
- Hole in Ones: 10 golfers
- Chalk zone: six golfers
- Total: 51 golfers
Event type
144 Players: Top 65 and ties make the weekend.Â
Core Players
Favorites as part of the core
None
The Rest
Sungjae Im ($11,000/$11.600)
A $1,400 bump for Im this week, as he goes from the seventh-highest priced player to the second highest. That will bring my allocation down from around 60% to 25-30% and take him out of my top dollar lineup on DraftKings. It’s just a bit too pricey in a single entry fashion. He’ll get on one of my FanDuel $333 teams, though. His stats don’t look all that great from last week, gaining about 1.2 on his ball striking and just shy of a stroke per round with his putter. If the around-green game is mitigated this week, then he should be able to climb into the top 10 easily. That’s a good base for the first guy in a lineup.
- Target Allocation (MME): 30%
Matthew Wolff ($9,000/$10,700)
My strategy with Wolff has remained the same for the most part: if the price matches the field, I play him. Only once has it not matched up during the Asian Swing, and in a year or so, we’ll look back and say he may have been the best player in the field. He’s not priced like it. In fact, he is not even in the top 10. His statistical numbers from the Tournament of Champions don’t look spectacular, but they match what I’m looking for here: a hot putter, and a strong off the tee game. Now, I just need his irons to get hot, which has happened a couple of times since joining the tour, and he could win it.
- Target Allocation (MME): 45-50%
Abraham Ancer ($8,900/$10,200)
While his putter wasn’t all that hot last week, it was his tee ball that prevented him from getting inside the top 25, losing almost two strokes over the four days. I think that had more to do with the wind than it does his game, so I suspect that should straighten itself out this week. If the putter wakes up, the irons stay the same and he takes advantage of the wide fairways, then I see no reason why he can’t best his finish here from last year when he finished 18th.
- Target Allocation (MME):25-30%
Harris English ($7,700/$9,600)
I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to play English when he’s not crazy chalky, like, 20-plus percent in the biggest GPPs. Finally, after a couple of weeks break, it seems gamers may have forgotten about English, slightly, and he is adequately priced. This seems like the perfect time to buy.
- Target Allocation (MME): 30-35%
Aaron Wise ($7,300/$8,900)
Wise’s game is so predictable at times, especially when he’s hanging around the cut line. You can almost guarantee that he’s going to bogey 18 to miss. Last week, he gained over two strokes in two rounds with his approach game but lost three with his putter. That is three strokes in two rounds, just terrible. That will be better this week and we get three rounds to figure it out. He should be able to use the wide fairways and no rough to his advantage here.
My target is a top 10 beating his 2018 performance where he came in 17th.
- Target Allocation (MME): 20-25%
Cameron Davis ($6,900/$8,300)
Momentum is real? Well, that’s what I’m hoping for with this late switch. Cameron Davis came onto the scene a few years ago and had very high expectations set on him, they didn’t manifest. Now, a couple of years removed, and having to go back to the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, he’s strung together a couple of good starts around the world, including last week’s top 10. Ball-striking was the key to his game, and if his putter just turns it up a notch, he could compete late into the day on Sunday.
- Target Allocation (MME): 20-25%
Fringe golfers (targeted to 15-20% ownership and may get in a higher dollar- and not part of the Chalk-Zone) In order of salary:
- Rickie Fowler
- Paul Casey
- Byeong Hun An
- Cameron Champ
- Francesco Molinari
- Alex Noren
- Russell Knox
- Andrew Putnam
- Vaughn Taylor
- Adam Long
- Talor Gooch
- Harold Varner III
Alternates (5-15% owned)
- Kevin Kisner
- Si Woo Kim
- Carlos Ortiz
- Nick Taylor
- Harry Higgs
- Lucas Bjerregaard
- Wyndham Clark
- Bo Hoag
- Â Jhonattan Vegas
- Kevin Chappell
- Doc Redman
- Nick Watney
- Hudson Swafford
- Beau Hossler
Hole in One’s (1-5% owned)
- D.J. Trahan
- Sam Ryder
- Tom Hoge
- Scott Harrington
- Roger Sloan
- Luke List
- Seung-Yul Noh
- Robby Shelton
- Sam Burns
- Sam Saunders
The pool of Favorites (not in core):
- Brian Harman
- Brian Stuard
ChalkZone: Covering how I’m playing anyone ranked in the top 20 projected ownership by Awesemo not listed above.Â
Weights to projected ownership
- E=Equal
- U= Under
- O= Over
Players
- Scottie Scheffler- E
- Rory Sabbatini- U
- Tony Finau- E
- Denny McCarthy- E
- Charles Howell III- U
- Daniel Berger- U
#NarrativeStreet
Field Changes
- Joel Dahmen out, Domonic Bozzelli in
Monday Qualifiers
- N/A
Sponsor Invites
- Akshay Bhatia
- Harris English
- Isaiah Salinda
- Josh Teater
- Ricky Barnes
- Ben Crane
- Charles Reiter
- Sam Saunders
- Wes Roach
Hometown Heros either by the college or grown-up
- N/A
Until next time everyone.
Cheers, Jason.
