This week, we are heading to the desert for the Waste Management Open at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. This is usually a really fun event with outrageous and wild crowds which makes for some great TV and exciting drama come Sunday. The 16th hole is where most of the madness takes place, as it’s basically a stadium seating like venue where the traditional golf fan behavior goes out the window. On the PGA DFS side, we have quality tournaments across the industry, making this one of the better weeks early in the season.
For anyone who is new to PGA DFS, this is going to be a public service announcement for the early part of the season: remember, we are dealing with the new cut rule of Top 65 and ties instead of the Top 70 we are used to seeing. That will make 6-for-6 incredibly elusive and 5-for-6 will have a chance to hang on in smaller fields and weeks with only a handful of rosters surviving the cut.
The Course
The course is a Par 71 measuring slightly over 7,200 yards that went through a makeover in 2014, but still won’t be too tough of a test for the players. Golfers will have plenty of opportunities to rip driver here as bombing it is definitely one of the paths to success and can leave you with some shorter irons into holes. The rough isn’t too penalizing which once again benefits some aggression off the tee, but the course isn’t overly long where short hitters are at a huge disadvantage. Gaining strokes on approach is always important, but this week it seems like the go-to stat as we’ve seen time and time again that guys with hot iron succeed here.
The greens at TPC Scottsdale are Bermuda, but are usually nothing too extreme which helps to mitigate the putting advantage the top putters usually have. Hideki Matsuyama being the course horse reinforces that point, as putting is certainly the weak link in his game. Ideally, we still want to target players who can gain strokes on the greens, but as we all know, the high variance makes it difficult to make that one of the key stats to focus on.
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The Field
There are only 132 players to choose from, but this event always has a decent number of the big guns here and this year is no different. Jon Rahm leads the way at $11,400, followed by Justin Thomas and defending champ Rickie Fowler to round out the top three options. It is not just a top-heavy field though as the mid range and even lower range are littered with quality players so expect to have rosters where you feel pretty comfortable with all the guys you have available.
Now that the season is starting to get underway, current form will be something to consider more and more as most players have played at least a few events in 2020. This is a course where targeting players who excel with their driver and can hit a ton of greens should be a recipe for success. However, I also will be using course history a good amount, as I feel this is a unique event that you are at an advantage in if you’ve been here and experienced this atmosphere before.
Weather seems fine, but keep an eye on Slack as we will provide updates and break down the latest info we get as this article is written a few days before lock. Also, make sure to check out the Wednesday night Awesemo.com PGA DFS show where we will update weather and talk about lineup construction, player pool and take questions from the chat.
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Quick Targets
Top Priced
Jon Rahm $11,400 DraftKings, $12,100 FanDuelÂ
We have a big two in many ways with Rahm and Thomas and many lineups will start with one of them. It is easy to advocate for either of these guys as they are world-class players and we have a lot of value in the lower ranges. It is a similar situation to last week when Rory Mcilroy and Rahm were up top I will lean slightly to the Spaniard.
This is an event Rahm will be playing for decades to come as he is an Arizona State alum and played here as an amateur. He destroys this course off the tee and it has led to finishes inside the top 20 in all four of his starts here. Rahm is a machine right now in the recent form department and is coming off the runner-up finish last week at Torrey. The only questions we need to consider is opportunity cost and ownership, both of which factor in when having several options up top. Still, you need exposure to Rahm given the way he is playing and the course he clearly likes.
Hideki Matsuyama $10,100 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
I don’t consider this a buy low spot on Matsuyama, but I thought he might be even more expensive given his course history. It is also rare I recommend two top-end options, as I rarely build like that, but I think you can make it work this week.
Matsuyama came in 15th last year here in the desert and it was like the sky was falling. Before that, he was the two-time defending champ and before those wins, he finished second and fourth in 2014 and 2015. Regardless of what you think about course history, it is important to note. It is not hard to realize how Matsuyama got it done here as he’s just destroyed the course tee to green every single year.
To put this in context, the worst strokes-gained-on-approach numbers Matsuyama had at this event was 5.6, which was during one of his wins here. He has gained six or more in all the other years and hasn’t done much on the greens during this remarkable run. If he ever gets going on the greens, then the course record will be in play with the way he seems to take apart the course. Matsuyama is in good enough form for me to be comfortable starting lines with him or plugging him in as my second man and going stars and scrubs this week.
Mid-Range
Daniel Berger $7,800 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
I have been playing Berger throughout this early part of 2020 and it hasn’t created major waves either way. So far, he has found the weekend in both 2020 starts, but didn’t threaten the leaderboard leading to middling finishes. At the mid-range price tags, those type of results are not going to kill you, but also don’t set the stage in large-field tournaments.
It’s a small sample size in terms of recent form, but Berger has been striking the ball well. He gained around five strokes tee to green in both the Sony and Amex in recorded rounds, while losing strokes putting in both. This course doesn’t demand length and Berger has excelled at the Waste Management in recent years with seventh, 10th and 11th finishes in the last five years. Another bonus is he fits in many build types with the middling price tag and I will use him in a lot of different spots this week.
Byeong Hun An $7,600 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
An has had a sluggish start to 2020 after some really good results in the swing season. He finished 68th at the Farmers, but gained 3.4 strokes on the approach which should translate into a better showing than that. Unsurprisingly, the problem once again was the putter as An lost 7.2 strokes putting and that’s just on the three recorded rounds we have from the South Course. That’s difficult to fathom even if we know putting can change week to week.
An sets up well here at Waste Management where he can lean on the irons and not get into a putting contest. Last year, he was in contention before shooting a Sunday 76 which dropped him all the way down to 20th. He shouldn’t be popular given his price/recent form and he is another mid-range option that fits a lot of different PGA DFS builds.
Lower Priced
Emiliano Grillo $7,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
This is the least surprising part of the article as Grillo always finds a way to get involved. He should be well rested as he took the weekend off last week after missing the cut on the number. Grillo tried to rally late, but it was a leaky short game that once again did him in. That is a common issue for him, but it is something we have to deal with.
Despite the frustration of rostering Grillo, we are still getting a tee-to-green machine at an appealing price point. Looking at his history here at Waste Management, he made four of four cuts and strokes gained off the tee in each year. The results were all middling which isn’t ideal for tournaments, but it seems like Grillo should easily find the weekend pending he doesn’t completely collapse on the greens.
J.J. Spaun $6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
If we are looking to possibly jam two expensive players, then we are going to need some serious value towards the bottom. That opens up playing guys with checkered course history, recent form and some golfers that aren’t at the top of the talent pool.
Spaun hasn’t produced a ton of big results due to some stretches of not being healthy. He is coming off a made cut at the Farmers where he ultimately finished 30th. Despite that not being a huge result, it is progress for Spaun, who broke a streak of three straight missed cuts before that. Another positive is that was Spaun’s most strokes gained tee to green dating back to June when he was in much better form.
Price-wise, Spaun is dirt cheap and opens up a ton of salary to spend on some top-end options. The reduced field should inflate 6-for-6 percentages and make it easier to roster some of these players who have massive missed-cut equity. Although I will not be looking to get to Spaun, I will have lineups where there is no choice and I will take a shot that he finds the weekend and returns value.
Also Considering – Harry Higgs
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