PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic on DraftKings & FanDuel

The PGA Tour closes out the Florida swing with the Honda Classic this Thursday. This event has bounced around the schedule in recent years and now finds itself directly after The Players Championship. That’s unfortunate timing, as a lot of players wanted a week off after the fifth major last week, so this will be a much weaker field than usual. On the DFS side, this means lineups aren’t going to look great on paper, and pricing is going to feel a lot tighter than last week. So let’s get into some PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel.

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The Course

PGA National is a par 70 measuring around 7,100 yards. It is a difficult test, so do not expect to see any -20 scores this week. The course is littered with bunkers, water and other obstacles that make it a challenge despite being relatively short in distance. The big reason why this course seems to continuously give players fits is the wind — it plays a major role almost every round here. As always, keep an eye out to see if one tee time has an advantage over the others, given the chaotic weather forecast.

The course is going to limit some of the bombers’ advantages off the tee because of all the danger lurking off the fairways. This should force the field to club down, and that puts a premium on keeping the ball in the fairway. From there hitting a ton of greens is always important and is going to be especially key this week. I will be looking at golfers who are solid tee to green as well as golfers who excel with their approach game. The greens are Bermuda again, which is the same surface that guys have seen the previous few weeks.

One last factor I will be looking at is proximity — numerous players live in Florida, and some live right by this course. It is not at the top of my list, but I always give a slight boost to players sleeping in their own beds and having local knowledge of a course.

The Honda Classic Field

This field is much weaker than I anticipated since most of the big names wanted an off week after The Players and Augusta is looming in a few weeks. That has changed the top of the pricing range, with defending champ Sungjae Im kicking things off at $11,000. After Im, Daniel Berger, Lee Westwood and Joaquin Niemann round out the top four options, showing how devoid we are of the normal top-tier players. Westwood wasn’t even in consideration after being rostered just a few weeks ago; now he finds himself as one of the most expensive options.

As we work down the list, there are a bunch of PGA Tour regulars and guys trying to move up the FedEx cup standings. The tough part is that you aren’t going to find many players with stellar recent form or whose strokes-gained data catches our eye outside the top-end price ranges. This means we will have to roster some risk/reward players and extract some players without the best numbers on their side.

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What to Do With This Potential Wind?

It is early in the week right now, but we could see some gusty conditions come Thursday. How to deal with the wind is always a hot topic in PGA DFS, and this week it could play a central role in building lineups. There is no magic formula to determine how much (if any) to consider the wind and what to do with situations like that.

The positive is that the Champion Course at PGA National is usually windy, so I still believe the course history and previous data is relevant to this year’s event. Normally I approach the wind with a few additional tee-time stacks so my golfers all see the same conditions. I would try to see if there is a potential split between waves. If there is, then you have to evaluate how much to weigh that; if it’s windy all day, then you can’t do much to avoid it.

The other aspect to keep in mind is the balance/sliding scale that the wind brings to greens in regulation as opposed to around the green. The gustier it gets, the more golfers will be unable to land the approaches, and that’ll put a strain on their short games. I will want guys that can get up and down — that will be a key metric in these conditions. That is not to say that good iron players aren’t in consideration, but pure ball strikers definitely get a bump down when the course plays extremely difficultly.

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PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic

Top-Priced: Joaquin Niemann $10,400 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel

This field is weak and not comparable to last week, so guys like Niemann are towards the top of the board in DFS. Berger makes a ton of sense and will be popular, but he also is nursing a rib injury that may or may not be a big deal. Niemann comes in with quality form, finishing 29th last week, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the Northern Trust back in August 2020. The consistency mixed with the upside is an appealing combo, and Niemann is always dangerous anytime he tees it up.

In terms of course history, this course has caused problems for Niemann, as he was 59th in 2019 and missed the cut last year. However, I don’t worry about that at all. Niemann has proven he can still get the job done at courses that are more technical rather than bomber-heavy tracks. He makes for a solid starting point north of $10,000 and has the upside to add another win to the resume.

Also considering: Russell Henley, Cam Davis

Mid-Range Byeong Hun An $8,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel

An is coming off a week where he shot +18 and missed the cut by a ton of strokes. Obviously, that’s not the recent form I am looking for, but I think we need some context here. In Round 1, An was playing average golf at +1 heading to the 17th hole. He proceeded to put four straight shots into the water and made an 11 on the par 3. That naturally ended all hope, and he played the rest of the round and Friday out of contention.

When one puts that many in the water, the strokes-gained data is going to look terrible. However, An loves this course. He has two top-five finishes, and his game should translate around the green. An needs to firm up the irons and avoid the major blowups; if he does that, it could be a magical weekend.

Also considering: Dylan Frittelli, Alex Noren (GPP Only)

Lower-Priced: Ryan Moore $7,300 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel

The lack of top-tier talent allows us to potentially build more balanced lineups without sacrificing a ton of win equity. I plan to steer clear of the extreme lower ranges, and one way of doing that is ending lineups in the low-7,000 range. Moore took basically all of the second half of 2020 off with major injury and returned out of form. He now has made two straight cuts, and last week at The Players he gained 3 strokes putting. His irons still need to improve a bit, but his game is trending upward. Plus, this course is a great fit for a guy who really doesn’t have much length off the tee.

Also Considering: John Huh, Scott Stallings

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].