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above the cut

Above the Cut: PGA DFS Advice & Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for The Rocket Mortgage Classic on DraftKings & FanDuel

Ben Rasa



Yahoo PGA DFS Picks Fortinet Championship optimal lineup optimizer free expert rankings projections ownership best bets lines this week Jon Rahm Doug Ghim Webb Simpson

The Rocket Mortgage Classic isn’t confused with a major given the field strength or course type, but there is still plenty of cash up for grabs. It is an opportunity to build different types of teams on DraftKings and FanDuel, as most golfers’ price tags are elevated. In addition, get ready for sky-high scores given the course’s lack of defense, and the entire field is going to have chances for a lot of birdies. Let’s dive into Detroit Golf Club and who the field is poised to be some of the best daily fantasy golf picks to help your DFS golf lineups reach the top of the leaderboards.

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The Course

Detroit Golf Club is a par 72 measuring just north of 7,350 yards, which isn’t too difficult. The course’s main defenses seem to be tree lining and plenty of bunkers that will force scrambling opportunities if golfers aren’t precise tee to green. Other than that, it shouldn’t pose much of a challenge, especially if the wind doesn’t play a factor. The rough seems thick, but it will not be anything the players can’t handle. Even though golfers want to be in the fairway, there will be some aggression off the tee this week.

The greens are a poa/bentgrass mix, and players will need to put themselves in the right position on these surfaces since they have some slope to them. Still, more often than not, guys will be able to attack after good drives, and this could turn into a putting contest with little to no defense from the course.

The course as a whole does not lend itself to one type of player, as the layout offers a little bit of everything in terms of hole lengths and layouts. Players will want to attack the four par 5’s, but they are going to have par 4’s of varying length, and there should be no hindrance to golfers who maybe aren’t the longest off the tee. Unlike recent tournaments, this could be a complete birdie fest, and the winner will probably cross -20 this week.

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The Field

Between majors there’s usually not a ton of talent to choose from. Many guys are already focused on links golf with The Open Championship lurking, and others may have just wanted an off week after a busy June. Either way, there are still some top-end names, starting with defending champion Bryson DeChambeau. He is joined up top by Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson and Hideki Matsuyama, all of whom are world-class players. The problem is more the depth of the field, as even the $9,000 range is full of golfers who are usually in the mid-range, and that theme continues all the way down the pricing.

Similar to last week, the $6,000 range is pretty weak. There are some pricing inefficiencies down there, as the difference between players is marginal and the salaries can feel somewhat random. Still, be careful targeting too many fliers since most of those guys will be unable to find the weekend.

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks This Week | Rocket Mortgage Classic

Top Priced: Bryson DeChambeau — $11,400 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel

DeChambeau is the obvious favorite considering he is the defending champ and probably the best player in the field. He can take apart this course with the driver, and if his putter cooperates, it is going to be a repeat of last year. The bigger question is, how much of an opportunity cost is it to pay north of $11,000 for a player, and what does that do to the rest of the lineup? Pairing him with another expensive golfer will mean sacrificing the other top-end players or dipping into the lower ranges.

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His game is in fine shape, and the only other issue is the ownership, which Awesemo projects to be the highest on the entire slate — 27.1% DraftKings, 39.2% FanDuel. That is always a tough situation, but with it being the most expensive golfer, it is less of a concern than a random mid-range player. DeChambeau is worthy of being the top-priced and top-owned player. There is still enough room given all the options in the lower ranges to make the preferred constructions, so his price is not a huge issue.

Other Daily Fantasy Golf Picks – Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland  

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Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Mid-Range: Chez Reavie — $7,600 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel

It is never bad to have distance off the tee, but don’t forget about the shorter hitters who also can get in the mix. Reavie is never going to stand out on the driving side, but he makes up for it with increased accuracy and deadly irons. Reavie comes in playing quality golf with three straight made cuts, including one at the U.S. Open. He has also gained at least three strokes on approach in three straight weeks. That is what he needs to be in contention here.

Unlike DeChambeau, the public isn’t too interested in this spot. Awesemo is currently projecting him around 5% ownership, which provides a lot of flexibility in terms of roster construction and allocation. It is a simple formula for Reavie, as he needs to keep it out of the rough and lean on the ball striking. Making a few putts is also important, but that’s the same for everyone in these birdie-fest events.

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Other Daily Fantasy Golf Picks – Emiliano Grillo, Alex Noren 

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Lower Priced: Scott Piercy — $6,800 DraftKings, FanDuel $8,000

The $6,000 range is full of guys with questionable form or players who don’t have a ton of experience on tour. Some of them will play well this week, while most will get two rounds and a ticket home. Be careful with this range, but at the same time, it cannot be ignored. The value and savings open up a ton of salary, and it is  helpful when rounding out teams. There are a few players in the lower-$6,000 range worth considering, but the upper $6,000s has more options available.

Piercy has plenty of experience on tour and is playing quality golf. He comes in with only two made cuts in his last four events, but the finishes were 19th and 11th, so the upside is there. The numbers look even better — four straight events where Piercy was positive tee to green — and he has gained in six consecutive tournaments off the tee. He has also competed in these birdie fest events before. The putter hasn’t been helpful for the most part, losing him strokes putting in four of five, but the one positive was a plus-4.5, which again shows the upside.

Other Daily Fantasy Golf Picks – Cameron Davis, Doug Ghim  

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*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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