Daily Fantasy Golf Picks: DraftKings Expert Projections

The American Express returns this year to its regular slot on the PGA Tour schedule but with a different format. Normally the Amex kicks off Pro-Am season, but this year the event will be reduced to regular event status only. One thing that will hold somewhat similar, though, is the rotation of courses, so we need to take that into consideration with our daily fantasy golf picks on DraftKings and FanDuel. While only two courses will be used this year, players will be frequenting both the Pete Dye designed TPC Stadium venue and the Nicklaus Tournament venue (designed by Jack Nicklaus) once each before the cut. A regular 36-hole cut line is in place here this year, too (most seasons the cut is after three rounds), and the top 65 and ties will then all play TPC Stadium on the weekend.

With the same target-style resort setups in play, this event should retain most of its usual flair and may even gain a bit of excitement given the extra talent that’s here in 2021. These venues also tend to favorite target golf, which means length off the tee is still important (there are four par 5’s) but only if on-line off the tee. The first- and second-place finishers here finished 98th and 158th in driving distance last year, so strokes gained on approach and players who can sink putts on the weekend is what you should be targeting.

[CONOR]

[SportsbookAffiliates]

TPC Stadium Club Stats and Info

• Four of the past five winners gained three or more strokes on their approaches and two or more strokes off the tee. This is a ball strikers venue where distance can still factor but generally needs to be controlled power given the tighter fairways, bunkers and water in play.
• Approach shots tends to be highly basketed in the 150-175-yard range here, while fairways are harder to hit than normal; the field averaged around 57% driving accuracy, which is 5% lower than tour average.

Putting Splits

The greens at the Plantation Course are Tifeagle Bermuda. They were replaced here after the 2019 event and should play a little firm for the next year or two. Generally, though, due to the humid climate, you’ll see them run slow for PGA standards (around 10-1.5 on the stimp). Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your daily fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Patton Kizzire: +53 on Bermuda, +8 on all other surfaces
Sam Burns: +42 on Bermuda, +11 on all other surfaces
Rickie Fowler: +33 on Bermuda, -3 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Patrick Cantlay: -11 on Bermuda, +12 on all other surfaces
Si Woo Kim: -22 on Bermuda, +11 on all other surfaces
Luke List: -50 on Bermuda, -17 on all other surfaces

Latest PGA DFS Content

American Express Daily Fantasy Golf Picks | DraftKings & FanDuel

Scottie Scheffler: Grades: A, Values: C

We saw Scheffler play once already at the Tournament of Champions in Maui, and while he wasn’t firing on all cylinders, the fact he still put together a 13th-place finish against a stacked field isn’t something we should just ignore. The American has turned into one of the best all-around talents in the game if we’re being serious and comes in ranked third in this field in shots gained off the tee and tee to green over the last 50 rounds. Furthermore, while some of the younger players still struggle with consistency in their short games, Scheffler has seemingly figured that portion of his game out, as he ranks 17th in shots gained around the green over that same span.

Scheffler’s ability to drive it long and slightly straighter than many of his peers have helped him on these tricky courses where fairways are thin and trouble lurks just off the carpet. He finished third at this venue last season, landing a bogey-free 66 at the Stadium course in Round 3, and he should be excited to chase his first win at the same venue this week. He ranks well in the site’s model, with the best points projection of anyone under $10,000 on DraftKings and best value score of anyone $9,500 or more.

The Stats:

Ranks third in shots gained off the tee and tee to green over his last 50 rounds
Shot bogey-free 66 at this venue last year on first try
Ranked seventh in birdie-or-better percentage last year on tour and is third in birdies gained over the last 50 rounds

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 28.3%| FanDuel: 25.8%

Abraham Ancer: Grades: A, Values: C

Ancer missed the cut last week at the Sony Open, but most of his woes stemmed from a putter that couldn’t replicate the 6.7 strokes he gained in Maui the week prior. Ancer was great off the tee at the Sony, gaining 2.5 strokes off the tee over two rounds, and when he’s peppering fairways like that, the scoring usually isn’t that far off. After all, this is a player with five top-20s over his last eight starts who collected two runner-ups and a 13th at the Masters in 2020.

Ancer sets up beautifully for this event, which requires precision drives and irons, so it should come as no shock that he finished second here last year. He shot a 64 on the home Stadium Course and gained 4.8 strokes putting over two rounds. Awesemo gives him the best value score and points projection of anyone under $9,500 on DraftKings this week, and he seems like a good bet to get his season going with a strong finish this week.

The Stats:

Second and 18th here on his last two visits to the course; ended last year with a 64 on the Stadium
Gained 4.2 strokes ball striking over his two rounds at the Sony and should be happy to be back on greens at Stadium, where he gained 4.8 strokes putting over two rounds

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 19.8%| FanDuel: 18%

Join STOKASTIC+ today!

Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Doc Redman

Redman certainly doesn’t seem like he deserves to be ignored this week, but with ownership trending well below 10% levels on DraftKings, he looks like a perfect GPP target. The 23-year-old has been a touch inconsistent of late but has paid off with some massive upside weeks for DFS players recently too. Three of Redman’s last eight events have now yielded finishes of fourth or better, and that has translated into DraftKings performances worth 96, 115 and 114.5 points. The missed cuts may rub us the wrong way, but truth be told, for GPPs this week there’s not much difference between 75 points and 30 points.

You need birdies this week, and Redman can deliver. He’s fifth in shots gained on approach over the last 50 rounds and 10th in scoring opportunities gained over the field in that same span. The setup really couldn’t be more perfect either, as Redman rarely misses off the tee, ranking 13th in driving accuracy last year, and shot a pair of 68s here last season on TPC Stadium. He’s going under the radar but shouldn’t be. I recommend taking advantage.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 5.3%

DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Denny McCarthy ($6,900)

People were happily paying $9,000 or more for McCarthy in certain events at the end of 2020, so I’m not sure why everyone is jumping ship this week at under $7,000. The venue here is great for one of the tour’s best putters, and we saw obvious improvement in his iron play towards the end of last year.

Michael Thompson ($7,100)

Thompson is another great putter who can prosper on these courses if he gets hot with his irons this week. Thompson has already played twice this season and has been money on the greens, gaining five strokes or more in both starts, with decent iron play as well. Riding him for one more week seems fine here.

Paul Casey ($8,700)

I’m not sure I buy that Casey will be at under 5% owned (we have projected for 4.6% right now), but he certainly isn’t coming in with much steam. He ranks fifth in shots gained on approach over the last 50 rounds and plays a ton of golf in the desert as a Phoenix resident. We’ve seen him hit the ground running fast on the West Coast before too, and this is a venue where veterans like Phil Mickelson have gone low before.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more daily fantasy golf picks and PGA DFS content? We have loads of daily fantasy golf picks articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo PGA home page. Just click HERE.