Daily Fantasy Golf Expert PGA Picks This Week

The PGA Tour has one more stop on its docket before the final major of the season occurs next week in England. The John Deere Classic is a mainstay on the PGA schedule both for its timing (it provides a charter for players going over to England next week) and the fact it is played at a classic “birdie or die” venue where low scores pile up daily. The John Deere Classic goes back to the 1970s but has been hosted by TPC Deere Run since 2000. It is a shorter par 71 at around 7,268 yards that provides the players with three very scoreable par 5’s and a bunch of short par 4’s. With a weaker field and course setup for big-time scoring, gamers will need to branch off from the usual DFS golf strategy and take a different approach for daily fantasy golf picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The winners here almost always reach 20 under par or better, and in 2019 it yielded a scoring average under 70 for the week. Approach play and accuracy off the tee are important here, and short irons are the key approach clubs to focus on — 125 to 175 yards is the busiest basket of shots the players will face. However, putting is the end game, with the last three winners having all gained at least 7.5 strokes on the greens for the week of their win.

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TPC Deere Run Stats and Info

Par 71, 7,268 yards; features bentgrass greens and seven par 4’s that measure in under 450 yards.
Par 4’s will mostly demand shorter approaches, with 125 to 150 yards in proximity being the key distance that many players will zone in on.
The last three winners here have gained 7.5 strokes or more putting, and 2019 winner Dylan Frittelli lost strokes on his approaches; scoring is key and how one does it is irrelevant.

Putting Splits

TPC Deere Run features some of the purest bentgrass greens on tour, and the flat-ish parkland course gives players plenty of good looks at birdie, even if they are far from the hole. These greens typically allow for some monster putting weeks, so do not shy away from looking at putting splits. Use caution with these; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Russell Henley: -22 strokes on bentgrass, +8 strokes on all other surfaces
Sungjae Im: -1 on bentgrass, +31 on all other surfaces
Vince Whaley: -1 on bentgrass, +10 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Beau Hossler: +36 on bentgrass, +3 on all other surfaces
Kevin Na: +33 on bentgrass, +11 on all other surfaces
Seamus Power: +16 on bentgrass, +6 on all other surfaces

The Awesemo PGA DFS Strategy Show is live at 1 p.m. ET, breaking down the John Deere Classic and finding the best daily fantasy golf picks this week.

John Deere Classic Daily Fantasy Golf Picks This Week

*Grades are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel. Initial grade indicates a player’s strength of output for the week with the value grade indicating their strength as a play in relation to their salary.

Daniel Berger: Grades: A+, A+ | Values: C, B

As one may suspect, the Awesemo daily fantasy golf projections this week have Daniel Berger as the clear class of the field. He is in the OWGR system is in a tier of his own this week on the Awesemo model, with a points projection that has him 6 points ahead of second-place Sungjae Im. Berger also has the highest win percentage of anyone in the field by a wide margin and carries the highest value score of anyone over $10,000. His recent form looks quite sharp too, as he comes in off a seventh at the U.S. Open in June and has gained four strokes or more on approach in four of his last five starts.

Berger may be using this week as a tune-up for the Open Championship next week. Players of high class like Jordan Spieth and Francesco Molinari have entered this event with the same goal and had monster weeks at TPC Deere Run. Berger seems likely to do something similar given the shape his game is in and the overall weakness of the field. Even at high ownership (27.6%), he is simply too underpriced on DraftKings daily fantasy golf to fade.

The Stats:

Ranks first in DraftKings points and strokes gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds.
Ranks first in birdies or better over the last 50 rounds; top 10 in his last finish at the U.S. Open, where he gained 6.7 strokes on his approaches.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 27.6%

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Jhonattan Vegas: Grades: B, B | Values: A, B

Jhonattan Vegas comes into this week with a solid recent record and an affordable price tag. He is just $8,000 flat on DraftKings yet ranks ninth in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 50 rounds and has missed just one cut in his last 11 PGA Tour starts. That kind of consistency should be valued in a field like this, especially since Vegas is a multiple-time winner on the PGA Tour and offers good name recognition.

Vegas’ ball striking has been carrying him of late too, as he has gained 2.5 strokes or more off the tee in his last six starts and gained 3.5 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. Even if he does not catch fire with the putter here early, his long game is likely going to pull him to the weekend with a shot at a low round. He has the best value score of anyone in the $8,000 range this week on Awesemo and could challenge if he finds rhythm on the greens early.

The Stats:

Ranks first in strokes gained off the tee, seventh in strokes gained tee to green and ninth in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 50 rounds.
Has made the cut at this event in his last three appearances and has gained strokes putting here in each of those three starts; finished third back in 2014.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.8%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Patrick Rodgers

Some people are noticing, but most of the golf world is unaware of the shift in Patrick Rodgers’ long game. Rodgers has reportedly switched golf balls, and that appears to be helping his ball striking considerably, as he enters this week having made four straight cuts in a row. Normally this kind of stretch would be all putter-based for Rodgers, but lately it has been his ball striking that is propelling him to weekends. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach the last two starts and has lost strokes on the greens in both events.

Rodgers can still catch fire with the flat stick at any moment and has excelled at this venue in the past, even holding the late Sunday lead in 2017 before collapsing down the stretch to finish second. He has made the cut here in each of his last three appearances, though, and comes in with renewed confidence after a solid U.S. Open and having made four cuts in a row — his best stretch since March. His upside looks very promising here in this weaker field.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.4%

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

DraftKings Top Three Under 5%

I am targeting three players here that will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. This section features boom/bust players with almost a 100% focus on upside.

Henrik Norlander ($7,300)

Norlander will have a permanent place in this section until he either wins and gets too expensive or misses a cut. He was 38th last week, which was not terrible considering the price. He will need to take a step up this week but can do that considering how well he hits his short irons (top 10 in proximity from 125 to 175 yards). He was 27th here back in 2016.

Mark Anderson ($6,800)

Anderson played well last week and could be under 2% owned in GPPs. He gained two or more strokes on approach, putting and around the green last week in Detroit, where he ranked second in birdies made. The course this week has a lot of similarities (players will hit a lot of short irons), and for all his flaws, Anderson is good with his approaches from close in.

Kevin Tway ($6,300)

Tway has been grinding his way back after a personal/injury break and has looked sharp on and around the greens of late. If his scoring clubs keep working, his off-tee ability could put him in good shape to grab some big rounds considering the easy par 5’s.

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