Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for RBC Heritage on DraftKings and FanDuel

The PGA moves down to the coast this week with a quick return to another classic event in the RBC Heritage. This event took place in June last year, and ideal summer conditions allowed players to tear up the course. The event was won by Webb Simpson at 22 under par, the lowest winning score in the history of the event. The return to April this year should temper scoring a bit, as cooler weather and the higher likelihood of wind (Harbour Town is set off the sea with many holes skirting the ocean) may provide some defense, which could also provide some difficulty in making daily fantasy golf picks on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

The venue is a short par 71 that measures around 7,099 yards and features small Bermuda greens. The greens are tough to hit — look for bad greens-in-regulation percentages this week — but quite flat in most spots and easy to put on. Winners here often gain massive strokes on the greens and Simpson gained 6.6 strokes putting here last year. With several tight driving holes and doglegs, clubbing down off the tee is often necessary on several holes and off-tee game tends to be deemphasized. It’s a tricky course where iron play, strong putting and experience on claustrophobic Pete Dye venues tend to pay off.

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Harbour Town Golf Links Stats and Info

Average three-putt percentage is often 10 to 20% lower than the tour average, but the average greens-in-regulation percentage is 5 to 10% lower than average.
Average driving distance at this event is one of lowest on tour and often 10 to 15 yards lower than tour average; two of the last four winners here have lost strokes off the tee at this event.
Four of the past five winners here have gained 3.5 strokes on approach (or more) for the week of their win.

Putting Splits

The greens at Harbour Town Golf Links are TifEagle Bermudagrass. These tend to be easier to putt on, with fewer three-putts than normal. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermudagrass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bermudagrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Matt Wallace: +3 strokes on Bermudagrass, +23 strokes on all other surfaces
2. Maverick McNealy: +1 on Bermudagrass, +30 on all other surfaces
3. Sepp Straka: -12 on Bermudagrass, +16 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermudagrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Charley Hoffman: +16 on Bermudagrass, -13 on all other surfaces
2. Russell Henley: +17 on Bermudagrass, -19 on all other surfaces
3. Michael Thompson: +15 on Bermudagrass, -2 on all other surfaces

Latest PGA DFS Content

Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Webb Simpson: Grades: A+ | Values: B, A

Simpson at short coastal tracks is a tale as old as time. The winner of the Waste Management and the RBC Heritage last year comes into this event off a 12th-place showing at the Masters. While he looked a little off at the Players last month, he rebounded nicely at Augusta and gained 5.8 strokes total for the week and has three top-12 finishes in his last six starts. He is also playing Harbour Town for the ninth time in his career this year and, as alluded to above, sets up perfectly for the tricky Pete Dye course. He has never missed the cut here in eight attempts and has three top-five finishes at the venue, including a playoff loss in 2013 and a win here last season.

Simpson’s blend of strong approaches and consistent putting puts him in perfect shape for a venue that features lots of doglegs and lay-up shots off the tee. He comes in ranked first in points projection and sporting a win % that is 1.6% higher than top-ranked Dustin Johnson. That kind of dominance should give tons of confidence for DFS purposes that paying up for his big salary is going to pay off more times than not. Simpson is going to be a popular daily fantasy golf pick this week, but he’s the chalk you want to own.

The Stats:

Has gained 3.0 strokes or more on approach at Harbour Town in each of his last four appearances.
Ranks 22nd in birdie or better over the last 50 rounds; eighth in strokes gained putting and fourth in strokes gained around the green.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 24.4%| FanDuel: 32.8%

Harris English: Grades: B | Values: B

Harris may not have elite point projections this week — they’re still very strong — but he does make for a good mid-tier target to pair with the aforementioned Simpson. He seems to have recovered from a mid-season slump and enters this week coming off a 21st-place finish at the Masters, which represented his best finish ever there. The last two stroke-play starts for English both yielded two top-30 finishes, and any bounce back to form should be watched closely. Last year English became a near must-play for fantasy around his current price range, which is $8,400 on DraftKings this week.

A Sea Island native (which is just up the coast form where they’re playing this week), English will be playing Harbour Town for the eighth time and shot a 64 here in the final round last season, which vaulted him up into 17th. With the second-best points projection of anyone under $8,500 on DraftKings this week — and the second best value score of anyone over $8,000 — he makes for a solid target.

The Stats:

Ranks top 25 in both strokes gained on short game and putting over the last 50 rounds; ranks 12th in birdies gained over the last 50 rounds.
Improved finishing position here each of the last seven years and gained 4.0 strokes on his approaches here last season.
Has never lost strokes putting on these greens in seven career starts.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15.1%| FanDuel: 19.9%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Lucas Glover ($7,100)

Glover looks like he’s getting a bit of a pop in sentiment this week, but it is unlikely to amount to him being over 10% owned. He comes into Harbour Town this year off a great start at the Valero where he finished fourth and struck the ball better than he had all season. Glover gained 7.1 strokes on his approaches alone at Valero, and he is the kind of player who can hold form with his irons for long stretches. Last summer he reeled off a string of four straight top-25 finishes (including a 21st at Harbour Town) before fading, which featured similar iron play.

There is even more reason to be bullish on him here, as he has played well on and around the greens of late and comes in having gained strokes around the green and putting in three straight starts. He will be playing Harbour Town for the 10th year in row this week and has only missed the cut once in his last seven appearances. Given the emphasis put on elite iron play this week, Glover makes for a great fantasy golf target in the low-$7,000 range here for the big GPPs on DraftKings.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.0%

DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We are searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

K.H. Lee ($6,600)

Lee has flashed the ability to contend on shorter courses like Sea Island and PGA National. He comes in having gained 4.9 strokes on his approaches in his last start at the Valero, where he finished 23rd. Just five starts removed from a runner-up finish at the Waste Management, he makes for a good GPP target at extremely small ownership levels.

Sam Burns ($7,400)

Burns comes in with terrible form over his last couple of starts, which is really pushing down his ownership projections (he is predicted to be under 2% owned). He still rank 14th in strokes gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds, though, and finished ninth here in 2019. Any bounce back to form could result in a big week in GPPs.

Matthew NeSmith ($6,900)

NeSmith has solid ties to the area and is a great approach player, ranking sixth in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds. He has produced 60 or more DraftKings fantasy points in five of his seven outings and makes for a good upside play at this price.

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