Expert Daily Fantasy Golf Picks This Week for The Northern Trust

There are just three official events left on the PGA Tour calendar heading into FedEx Cup playoff season. Finishing points over these next couple of weeks will be huge, as the finale at East Lake is seeded based on standings with the leader being given a head start. This year’s first leg of the playoffs will return to the same site it was competed at in 2019: The Northern Trust at Liberty National. The 125-man field will still feature a cut after Friday, with only the top 65 players and ties making the weekend. After the event finishes, the FedEx Cup standings will be updated, and only the top 70 players will be allowed into next week’s BMW Championship. With so much at stake, there is plenty of DFS golf advice to get into as well as daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

Host Liberty National plays as a longer par 71 at over 7,400 yards and is located in New Jersey just off the coast of Upper New York Bay (and right across the water from Brooklyn). It was designed by Tom Kite and Robert Cupp and hosted this event most recently in 2019 and 2013. Its main features include a more wide-open, almost links-style setup off the tee and smaller bentgrass greens that often lead to fewer greens in regulation for the field.

Liberty National Stats and Info

Par 71 that plays around 7,410 yards; features pure bentgrass greens and is located on New York Bay.
Open style links course with wide fairways; driving accuracy here was 3-4% higher than tour average for most of field in 2019.
Driver-heavy course but also features small greens; greens in regulation were 3-4% lower than tour average in 2019.

Putting Splits

The green types shift this week in New Jersey, where bent and poa tend to be in play more. Liberty has pure bentgrass greens, so good comparables include Augusta National and TPC Deere Run. Use caution with these in your daily fantasy golf picks; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Justin Thomas: +5 strokes on bentgrass, -10 strokes on all other surfaces
Brandt Snedeker: +34 on bentgrass, +1 on all other surfaces
Harris English: +35 on bentgrass, +18 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Russell Henley: -19 on bentgrass, +14 on all other surfaces
Carlos Ortiz: -16 on bentgrass, +15 on all other surfaces
Sungjae Im: -4 on bentgrass, +24 on all other surfaces

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Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

*Grades are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel. Initial grade indicates a player’s strength of output for the week with the value grade indicating their strength as a play in relation to their salary.

Rory McIlroy: Grades: A, A; Values: C, C

McIlroy comes into this event off a 12th-place finish at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude where he struck the ball as well as anyone but faltered on and around the greens. He gained 12.4 strokes ball striking alone (off the tee and on approach), which was an impressive feat considering he had just flown over from Japan — where he finished tied for fourth. McIlroy is another top player who is known for getting up for the playoffs, as he enters this year’s version with five wins in the FedEx Cup Playoffs already under his belt. Furthermore, he has played Liberty National in competition a couple times in the past, grabbing a sixth-place finish here in 2019 when he gained 4.2 strokes putting for the week. That is a good sign he may be able to bounce back at the Northern Trust from a terrible putting week in Memphis.

McIlroy grades as a strong target this week in the Awesemo daily fantasy golf projections, as he has the second-highest points projection on the site despite being just the seventh-highest-salaried golfer on DraftKings. His value score is easily the best of anyone above $10,000 as well, making him a clear player to target for those who want the best bang for their buck.

The Stats:

Has gained four strokes or more on approach in each of his last five U.S. starts; ranks fifth in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds.
Ranks first in par-4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards over the last 50 rounds; was sixth at Northern Trust in 2019.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.7%

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Webb Simpson: A, A; Values: B, B

Simpson was a featured player here last week and still paid off for DFS players as the uber-chalk at the Wyndham. He gained 11.3 strokes ball striking, gaining 8.5 strokes on his approaches alone. He uncharacteristically lost strokes putting and around the greens but ranks top 30 in both strokes gained putting and around the green over the last 50 rounds. He will be playing at the Northern Trust for the third time in his career (in stroke play) and has meshed well with the course his first two times out, grabbing top-20 finishes in 2013 and 2019. Considering 2019 saw shorter hitters like Patrick Reed and Abraham Ancer compete and win here (both with accurate weeks off the tee), one has to like Simpson’s chances of getting in the mix.

As for the model, Simpson has the eighth-best points projection and has the best value score of anyone above $8,500 on DraftKings. He dominates the $8,000 range in terms of output and value and has grabbed top-20 finishes in three straight starts after a mid-summer lull. There is nothing not to like here.

The Stats:

Led the field in strokes gained on approach by 1.4 strokes at the Wyndham; has managed three top-20s in a row coming into this week.
Posted 18th and 15th place finishes at Liberty National in 2019 and 2013; has gained 24 strokes putting on bentgrass over the last 50 rounds.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.0%

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Dustin Johnson

Johnson has h the lowest sentiment among all of the big names, and that alone makes him an intriguing proposition for GPP lineups here. He has already won this event three times in his career and has six FedEx Cup Playoff wins over his career. In short, he gets up for this time of year when the money tends to flow more freely, and there is no reason to think 2021 will be any different. Johnson is not in as good form as he was in 2020 (no one in the world is, quite frankly), but he did have one of his best showings of 2021 in his last start when he finished 10th at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.

Johnson gained 3.2 strokes on approach for the week in Memphis, and that was his best mark in that area since early March. Combining that solid ball striking with the top-10 at the British Open, his form is perhaps being discounted simply because the DFS player pool is too focused elsewhere this week. Johnson’s $11,000 salary is not ideal, but it also is working to keep sentiment low. He is a great pay-up candidate in big fields where a return-to-form win would bring massive leverage on the field here.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.7%

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DraftKings Top Three Under 5%

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We are searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Erik van Rooyen ($6,700)

Van Rooyen is playing with house money after grabbing his first ever PGA win a couple weeks ago, so the stress should be low for him here. He has made a habit of popping for big weeks against strong fields and has a third-place finish from the 2020 WGC-Mexico and an eighth-place finish from the PGA Championship (held not far from Liberty National) already on his resume. He gained 3.4 strokes on approach last week too and is coming in around 2% owned in Awesemo’s daily fantasy golf ownership projections.

K.H. Lee ($6,500)

Lee has continued his good form into the late summer. He finished 24th last week, gaining seven strokes ball striking. He was poor on the greens at the Wyndham, but Liberty takes him off Bermuda, which is a plus. Lee has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in three of his last four starts and looks ready for the stiffer test that awaits at Liberty.

Kevin Streelman ($7,400)

Streelman is projecting at just over 5% ownership in Awesemo’s daily fantasy golf projections but does not appear like he will move anywhere near double digits. He bounced back from a couple of poor showings to post a 19th-place finish at the British Open and a seventh-place finish last week, which saw him just miss the playoff by a stroke. He finished 19th at Liberty in 2013 and looks to be returning to the form that had him post an eighth-place finish at the PGA Championship earlier in the summer.

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