The Waste Management Phoenix Open marks the end of football season as the final round on Sunday is finished right before the Super Bowl begins. In a lot of respects, it’s a nice reminder that golf’s big events are just around the corner too, as its conclusion also coincides with the final two-month run into Augusta. As for how the event generally plays out, this one features one of the more fun venues on tour as TPC Scottsdale has an aggressive layout with lots of great scoring holes down the stretch. While the venue won’t have its usual 200,000 fans per day, it won’t disappoint given that it has produced a playoff here in four of the last five seasons. So let’s get into some daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings.
TPC Scottsdale plays as a par 71 that measures in just under 7,300 yards. Unlike last week, where the narrow fairways were guarded by big ancient trees and grown out Kikuyu rough, this course features manicured Bermuda everywhere and uses artificial traps like sand and water to penalize off-center drives. The open layout allows players to take more chances off the tee, and we often see driving averages for the field near or even over 300 yards for the week. Strong off-tee play is essential, but the tournament is won with iron play, and four of the last five winners here have gained 7 or more strokes on their approaches for the week. These are big, slick, complex greens for the most part, so just hitting a high number of greens in regulation will not be enough. Players will need good proximity as well to land the number of birdies they need to compete here.
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TPC Scottsdale Info
- Course is 7,261 yards, par 71 with three par 5’s that all measure in under 560 yards and play as solid risk/reward holes.
- Six par 4’s measure in over 445 yards in length, and even though fairways here only typically yield a 57-58% driving accuracy rate, driving distance measures out 10-12 yards higher than the tour average.
- Longer hitters also get to see shorter approaches and the 150-175 yard range of approaches is the most popular here over time, but there are also a decent number in 125-150 yard range; the longer off the tee and the more of these short approaches you player will have.
Putting Splits
The greens at TPC Scottsdale are TifEagle Bermuda. They tend to play closer to what you’d expect to see on the Florida swing. Here is a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermudagrass putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bermudagrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Sam Burns: +41 strokes on Bermudagrass, +10 on all other surfaces
2. Sungjae Im: +22 on Bermudagrass, -6 on all other surfaces
3. Rickie Fowler: +26 on Bermudagrass, -1 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bermudagrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Justin Thomas: -1 on Bermudagrass, +14 on all other surfaces
2. Gary Woodland: -8 on Bermudagrass, +12 on all other surfaces
3. Keegan Bradley: -50 on Bermudagrass, -34 on all other surfaces
Daily Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Justin Thomas: Grades: A+, Values: B, A
After a third-place finish at the Tournament of Champions and a missed cut overseas in Abu Dhabi, Thomas returns to action this week at an event he’s finished third at the last two seasons. Thomas’ elite approach game serves him well at TPC Scottsdale, a course where he can be aggressive off the tee and give himself plenty of good short and mid-iron looks. He was involved in some on-course controversy surrounding his use of a gay slur, but he should be happy to be back in competition here.
Over the last 50 rounds, Thomas ranks second in both strokes gained on approach and around the green and has gained 2.7 strokes or more putting here in each of his last three visits to the course. In the Awesemo stat model, he ranks just behind Jon Rahm in terms of points projection this week, but he also has a slightly better value score than Rahm and the best value score in the model of anyone over $9,000. Trusting Thomas’ record and fit for this venue seems wise this week.
The Stats:
- Ranks second in strokes gained on approach and around the green over the last 50 rounds.
- Gained over 6 strokes from 125-175 yards on his approaches in his last start at the Tournament of Champions; ranks second in the field in approaches from 125-150 yards and third from 150-17.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 29.1% | FanDuel: 40%
Corey Conners: Grades: B, Values: B
Conners enters this week having made the cut in each of his last eight starts on tour and is only four starts removed from a 10th at the Masters last November. He has been playing great golf of late, and it has been anchored by some of best ball striking on tour. He comes into this week ranked fourth in strokes gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds and seventh in strokes gained tee to green. While his around-the-green game remains a work in progress, Conners has shown some better consistency on the greens of late and hasn’t lost more than a stroke putting in any of his last seven starts, four of which resulted in positive strokes on the greens.
This will only be his second start at TPC Scottsdale, but he did gain 2.5 strokes on his approaches here last year in a 45th-place finish and comes in this season buoyed with more confidence off his best-ever major finish three months ago. The Awesemo model definitely likes Conners too, as he has the second-highest points projection of anyone under $8,000 and third-best value score in his tier. Taking him here over less in-form veterans also bundled in this range seems prudent this week.
The Stats:
• Fourth in strokes gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds and seventh in strokes gained tee to green.
• Fifth in par-5 efficiency from 500-550 yards over the last 50 rounds (all three par 5’s measure in this range).
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 11.2% | FanDuel: 9.5%
Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier
Will Zalatoris
Zalatoris enters this week’s event off the back of a seventh at the Farmers that saw him gain strokes in every major category. Since joining the tour, Zalatoris has scored 70 or more DraftKings fantasy points in six of his seven starts and averaged 90.25 DraftKings points over his last four. Despite that kind of consistency, he’s still not getting much love in the DFS circles here. The price jump over last week likely has something to do with it (he was $8,100 last week), as does the lack of course history at TPC Scottsdale. Those worries aren’t unfounded, but they are not exactly deal breakers. The bigger focus should be on elite tee-to-green numbers he has been putting up and the fact he ranks sixth in strokes gained ball striking and third in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds. Hovering just around 5% ownership this week, he’s the perfect high-end GPP pivot and someone you should be targeting every week until we see some flaw emerge.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.8%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom–bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Kyle Stanley ($6,700)
Stanley’s approach game has been trending well for some time now. He has gained strokes on his approaches in four straight starts now and was a combined +5.7 in strokes gained ball striking at Torrey Pines last week. The results haven’t been here for him at the Waste Management Phoenix Open lately, but he’s a former winner of this event (2012), and when he’s in form like this, he can compete anywhere.
Wyndham Clark ($7,100)
Clark continues to play steady golf despite an iron game that has yet to really catch hold. He comes in having made the cut in six of his last seven starts and is putting himself in great positions off the tee. He’s also a fantastic Bermuda putter that gained 4.1 strokes on the greens here last season in a 34th-place finish. For the price, he’s a solid daily fantasy golf pick for GPPs given the upside with the flat stick and the consistency he offers off the tee.
Tom Lewis ($6,500)
Lewis is one of my favorite Euro GPP punt plays to target and someone who could pop up here on his first visit. He is not super accurate off the tee, but he has played well on several links-style venues before overseas, and the wide-open feel of TPC Scottsdale has agreed with other Euro Tour vets (see Louis Oosthuizen and Byeong Hun An). He grinded out a decent made cut last week and can pile up birdies in a hurry on a course like this where aggressive ball striking is rewarded. He should be under 3% in most contests this week.
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