Expert Olympic PGA DFS Picks & Stats This Week for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, July 26, 2021

Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all of the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. This week the PGA Tour takes a break from the massive fields and brutal cut sweats, and there are a guaranteed four rounds from all of the golfers. The Tokyo Olympics will have 59 or 60 golfers, depending on a replacement for Jon Rahm. PGA DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel are big and with a limited field, so diversifying among some unpopular names will be important.

Also, there is no Course History this week.

PGA DFS Picks This Week: The 2020 Tokyo Olympics

Of the 59 golfers teeing it up, only Udayan Mane of India does not have a recorded start in the last 11 weeks. Every other golfer competing has at least three starts.

Recent Form

The incredible form of Mito Pereira continues to roll on, as he added his sixth top-10 in the last 12 weeks. It was his second straight on the PGA Tour, and it seems his career is just getting started. Speaking of a career that is just getting going, Collin Morikawa’s rise to superstardom has been fast and furious, as he added his second major in just his first few years on tour. He is also playing great golf, adding three other top010s in the past 11 weeks. Only Hurly Long of Germany, playing on the Challenge Tour, has four or more top-10s over the past three months. Kristian Krogh Johannessen of Norway also has three top-10s and six top-25s in his last seven starts on the Challenge Tour.

Paul Casey is joined by Abraham Ancer and Jhonattan Vegas of the PGA Tour and Guido Migliozzi of the European Tour with three top-10s in the past three months. Ten others have multiple top-10s, including Shane Lowry, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy.

Negative Recent Form

Gavin Green of Malaysia needs the motivation of putting on his country’s colors, as he has missed six of his seven cuts over the past three months. Sebastian Munoz of Venezuela has been great when he has made the cut, coming in the top five twice and adds in five missed cuts. Luckily this week, the golfers are guaranteed four rounds. Others like Sami Valmiki, Rory Sabbatini, Maximilian Kieffer, Romain Langasque and Jazz Janewattananond have all missed four cuts and have no top-10s.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form

1. Collin Morikawa ($11,200)
2. Paul Casey ($9,500)
3. Jhonattan Vegas ($7,400)
4. Mito Pereira ($7,200)

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Strokes Gained

Going through the pictures of this tree-lined course, it seems as though driving will be on the easier side. It should be a first and second-shot golf course, as the green complexes and length are where it seems to get tricky. I have also compiled the corresponding stat for the European Tour and added them in to the mix this week.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Ryan Fox
3. Justin Thomas
4. Matthias Schwab
5. Paul Casey
6. Thomas Pieters
7. Viktor Hovland
8. Rory McIlroy
9. Xander Schauffele
10. Corey Conners

Strokes Gained Off Tee

1. Jhonattan Vegas
2. Thomas Pieters
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Antoine Rozner
5. Adrian Meronk
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Corey Conners
8. Joaquin Niemann
9. Sungjae Im
10. Xander Schauffele
11. Guido Migliozzi

Strokes Gained on Approach

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Paul Casey
3. Justin Thomas
4. Fabrizio Zanotti
5. Corey Conners
6. Matthias Schwab
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Rasmus Hojgaard

Strokes Gained Around Green

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2. Tommy Fleetwood
3. Justin Thomas
4. Ryan Fox
5. Patrick Reed
6. Shane Lowry
7. Matthias Schwab
8. Si Woo Kim
9. Ashun Wu
10. Paul Casey

Strokes Gained Putting

1. Garrick Higgo
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
3. Sami Valimaki
4. Patrick Reed
5. Adri Arnaus
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Cameron Smith
8. Kalle Samooja
9. Joaquin Niemann
10. Mackenzie Hughes

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained

1. Viktor Hovland ($9,900)
2. Corey Conners ($8,800)
3. Antoine Rozner ($7,600)
4. Ryan Fox ($6,900)

Old School Statistics

There will be a heavier emphasis on ball striking this week, as the course will yield plenty of birdie looks with quality shots on the first two. I will take a look at some of the stats that both the PGA and European Tours collect.

Greens in Regulation

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Fabrizio Zanotti
3. Rasmus Hojgaard
4. Matthias Schwab
5. Guido Migliozzi
6. Corey Conners
7. Antoine Rozner
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Garrick Higgo
10. Sungjae Im

Driving Distance

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Ryan Fox
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Jhonattan Vegas
5. Joaquin Niemann
6. Garrick Higgo
7. Carlos Ortiz
8. Viktor Hovland
9. Justin Thomas
10. Thomas Pieters

Scrambling

1. Ashun Wu
2. Abraham Ancer
3. Thomas Pieters
4. Si Woo Kim
5. Patrick Reed
6. Guido Migliozzi
7. Justin Thomas
8. Maximilian Kieffer
9. Sungjae Im
10. Matthias Schwab

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Birdie or Better

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Justin Thomas
4. Viktor Hovland
5. Cameron Smith
6. Garrick Higgo
7. Adri Arnaus
8. Rory McIlroy
9. Ryan Fox
10. Kalle Samooja

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis

1. Joaquin Niemann ($9,200)
2. Guido Migliozzi ($8,400)
3. Garrick Higgo ($8,300)
4. Thomas Pieters ($8,100)

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