Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP PGA DFS picks for fantasy golf. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo PGA DFS. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.
Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk. Now, these picks are meant only for game theory plays and may not ultimately be in my player pool.
Don’t forget to check out the PGA DFS Strategy Show with Timothy Frank and Ben Rasa. Come back tonight at 8:30 p.m. EST for our Live Before Lock show where I drag Ben in for another hour of chatting about all the current week’s hot topics and plays.Â
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Last Week Recap
It was another 90-plus percent outing for the Awesemo guys. You may have to wait until Wednesday, but they are undoubtedly the best in the industry. Once you averaged mine and theirs together, the RSQ actually was higher on my side, 93%. But before the average it was about 84%, so the guys still beat me for the third straight week. One quick note, Harry Hall must have thrown the guys for a loop, as they had him projected at 11.6%? Maybe it was a typo on the input and they meant 1.6%. That seems much more likely.
As far as the articles recommendations go, Brandt Snedeker was highlighted as a very good GPP play, finishing in the top five. Cam Champ was also highlighted, and he came seventh in DraftKings scoring. Overall, it was a pretty good week.
PGA DFS Player Focus This Week
132 players assemble in the desert for the greatest show on turf. That should give us plenty of against-the-grain options this week.
$10,000 and Above
Commentary
We have a strong top end with Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm, the two players that I mentioned would be battling it out for player of the year honors at the end of the season. They are joined by three golfers whose DFS popularity seemingly overrides their OWGR standing, and those are Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler. With that, I suspect a lot of ownership coming from these five, and in a relatively spread out fashion.
Fowler is coming off of a missed cut last week, which is the exact same scenario as last year and he ended up winning the tournament. With that missed cut, he still came relatively high ownership, and I project the same to happen again, somewhere between 15-20%. Rahm has been too consistent and too good this year for anything less than 25% ownership in my opinion, while the other three I haven’t mentioned should all get around 20% as well.
Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
With ownership being spread relatively evenly, I think this is a case for picking your favorite and get around 40-50% of them, and you should get at least double on the field.
$8,000-$9,999
Commentary
This is the most in-depth $8,000-9,999 section we’ve had all year, at least in my opinion, as the Waste Management Open has lots of players put on their calendar. Viktor Hovland returns from his two starts on the Euro Tour, missing the cut in one, and coming in 23rd in the other. However, he is priced as if he missed both cuts. At $8,400, I suspect a lot of gamers will go his way, thus giving him one of the highest ownerships of the middle section.
Collin Morikawa, Xander Schuaffele, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland are all candidates to be over 15% this week. However, since the field, and specifically this price section is so deep, we should get plenty of options at or below 10%. Sungjae Im is of apparent interest to me with his ownership and price tag coming down. It would be a great spot for him to get his first win with lower ownership. Here are the others in the mid ownership range:
- Matt Kuchar
- Matthew Wolff
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Bubba Watson
- Chez Reavie
That leaves a couple of plays other than Jordan Spieth. Spieth hasn’t been owned higher than 14% in his last 21 starts and you can almost guarantee he will be less than 10% owned at this point. Sometime in the future, who knows when, Spieth will pay off. Let’s just hope I’m not broke by then. Here are a few others I expect to be less than 10% owned:
- Brandt Snedeker
- Ryan Moore
- Cameron Smith
- Branden GraceÂ
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Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
Grace lost his form almost entirely after the blunder at this tournament a year go. His revitalization came just recently, winning in his home country on the European Tour. If that form stays somewhat visible, he’s definitely an intriguing play. Moore is also of a little interest, while Snedeker and Smith may have peaked here early in the season.
$7,000s
Commentary
Byeong Hun An truthers will be out this week, again. I actually didn’t have to delete the first part of that sentence from last week. An has had a couple of good starts here, and a couple of times put himself into position to possibly win the tournament. That and his price should drive ownership up quite a bit. After him and Harris English, who was highly owned again last week, there could be a bit of a drop-off. Two popular plays in this area, Sebastian Munoz and Lanto Griffin, are both coming off missed cuts at the Farmers, while Vaughn Taylor took the week off after saving 25% of the lineups just two weeks ago.
Adam Hadwin, coming off of a layoff after the birth of his daughter, will be owned in the 10-15% range. It’ll be interesting to see how he responds in his first tournament back. Other than the five previously mentioned golfers, there are a handful that will get close to 10%, and they include:
- Keegan Bradley
- Sung Kang
- Corey Conners
- Jason Kokrak
- Rory Sabbatini
We’ve still got 27 golfers left in this price category, with most of them coming in below 10%. Some of those that I like that have mid ownership and not below 5% include:
- Andrew Putnam
- Billy Horschel
- Daniel Berger
- J.T. PostonÂ
- Emiliano Grillo
- Russel Knox
Also, if you want to go against the grain, here are five other golfers that will be owned below 5%:
- Kevin Na
- Talor Gooch
- Kyle Stanley
- Brendan Steele
- Martin LairdÂ
Top PGA DFS ATG Plays
I’ll try and stack all my GPP lineups this week with one golfer from the last list and one golfer from the list above.
$6,000s
Cameron Tringale made another cut last week and continued his consistent play. However, he comes to a course where he hasn’t been very good in the previous couple of years, but that may not stop gamers from heading his way. Projected at 0%, he likely will be the highest owned from this section. Next, we have Adam Long, Brian Gay, Doc Redman, Chris Kirk, Harold Varner III and Brian Stuard, all coming in around 5%. Outside of them, you should be able to get leverage on pretty much anyone you want.
Until next time
Cheers,
Jason
