The PGA Tour’s 2020/2021 season kicks off this week in Napa, Calif. with the Safeway Open, an event that has become a fixture on the fall PGA DFS swing. Formally known as the Fry’s Open, it underwent a move to its current location at Silverado Country Club back in fall of 2014 and has been staged there ever since. The event typically features a small band of elite players wanting to mix it up for some competitive fall golf and lots of hungry fresh grads off the Korn Ferry Tour. This year is a little different as it is being staged 48 hours after the Tour Championship ended and the week prior to the U.S. Open.
The field for 2020 may be much thinner as a result, but in a lot of ways it will only make the DFS play this week more interesting. The venue should also spice things up too as Silverado plays as a shorter par 72 at 7,166 yards with skinny fairways and fast poa greens. The event has seen bombers excel here the past few seasons, and the last two winners have averaged 337 yards and 314 yards off the tee for the week of their respective wins. With harder-to-hit fairways, players who are able to cut corners and get themselves closer to the holes off the tee on the short par 4’s and par 5’s seem to have developed a clear advantage over time.
Silverado Country Club Course Stats and Info
• Each of the past five winners have gained 1.6 strokes or more off the tee for the week of their respective wins; the last two winners have gained 2.5 strokes or more off the tee
• Players here hit on average 8-10% less fairways than the Tour average and also average two yards more off the tee in driving distance
• Seven of the par 4’s this week measure in between 400-450 yards, and three of the par 5’s measure in between 550-600 yards, the longest being the 18th that plays at 585 yards
Putting Splits
The greens at Silverado Country Club are primarily poa, and they’ll play similar to greens that we see at many of the Tour’s West Coast stops every January to February. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst poa putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Martin Laird: +19 on poa, -20 on all other surfaces
2. Phil Mickelson: +21 on poa, -24 on all other surfaces
3. Rafa Cabrera-Bello: +22 on poa, -14 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Charl Schwartzel: +15 on poa, -14 on all other surfaces
2. Henrik Norlander: -1 on poa, +10 on all other surfaces
3. Bud Cauley: -21 on poa, +8 on all other surfaces
PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Erik van Rooyen: Grades: A, Values: C
Seeing van Rooyen grade out so well in the Awesemo model is admittedly a little scary. The South African is a talented player, but the last time he played in a weaker field event was at the 3M Open, where he quickly missed the cut by a mile. There is reason to think this week will be different, though. Silverado has really catered to players with high-end off-tee games, and van Rooyen ranks third in this field in strokes gained off the tee over the last 50 rounds. He also played a similar setup at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico — which also features tight fairways and speedy poa greens — extremely well early in 2020, posting a third-place finish at the WGC Mexico event held there. He ranks out with the second-best projected score and top-six percentage in the Awesemo model this week, and he isn’t projected to be uber-chalk this time out like he was in Minnesota a couple months back.
The Stats:
• Has gained 2.7 strokes or more off the tee in his last two starts on Tour
• Has positive putting poa splits, having gained 10 strokes more on poa over his last 50 rounds than any other surface
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.1%| FanDuel: 13.5%
Luke List: Grades: B, Values: B,C
List had some solid moments after the restart that include him winning on the Korn Ferry Tour back in June. The 35-year-old had started to heat up with his ball-striking just prior to bombing out at the Northern Trust, and he gained over six strokes tee to green in each of his last two events prior to Boston. The weaker field of the Safeway Open certainly suits List more, and it is no shock to learn that he’s competed well at this venue in the past. List finished third here in 2018 and has made the cut at Silverado in three of four attempts. Despite being salaried in the $7,000 range this week, he ranks out in the top five in strokes gained off the tee and tee to green, among names like Sergio Garcia and Phil Mickelson. He’ll definitely need to show improvement with the putter, but it is worth noting that he has gained over two strokes putting at this venue in two of his four starts. On Awesemo he ranks out with the second-best top-six percentage among anyone with a salary under $7,500 on DraftKings for the week, and he isn’t projected to be heavy chalk, making him a solid GPP candidate.
The Stats:
• Fifth in this field in strokes gained off the tee over the last 50 rounds and third in the field in strokes gained tee to green over the same period
• Has gained two strokes or more putting on the greens at Silverado in two of four career starts there
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.4%| FanDuel: 9.0%
Low-Owned GPP Flier
Branden Grace
Grace comes into this week on an ugly five-event missed-cut streak. Despite poor results, the stats on Grace don’t really look that bad, as he’s actually gained 3.6 and 4.5 strokes on approach in two of his last three starts, while also gaining strokes off the tee in three of his last five starts overall. The issues mainly stem from sloppy around-the-green play and poor putting, a situation you would hope could remedy itself with the now three-week break he’s had. The field this week is obviously a lot softer than what Grace was going up against in the late summer, and the South African has certainly proven himself able to compete against the best in the world when he’s at his best. Grace has also had some pretty solid success on the West Coast in his career, posting a top five at the U.S. Open (Chambers Bay) in 2015 and a couple solid finishes at both the Genesis Open and Pebble Beach Pro-Am. For an event like this, I don’t mind using him in GPPs and hoping we catch a solid dead cat bounce on the former RBC Heritage champion who possesses true top-five upside anytime he tees it up against a weaker field.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 6.2% | FanDuel: 5.2%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
Targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom/bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Kristoffer Ventura ($7,000)
• Struggled to start the season but posted top-25 finishes in three of his last four starts on the PGA as well as three top-15 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour from June onward
• Has gained strokes off the tee in six of his last seven starts now and averaged over 305 yards in driving distance last season
• One of best putters on Tour last year (fourth in strokes gained putting) and shot three solid rounds at Silverado last year, despite being in much poorer form than he is now
Wyndham Clark ($6,800)
• Started to show some form towards the end of last season, landing a 29th at the Northern Trust.
• Gained strokes on approach in his last two events of 2019/2020, the first time he’s accomplished such a feat since February of 2020
• One of the best par-5 scorers in the field, ranks out ninth in efficiency ratings on par 5’s that measure in from 550-600 yards
Martin Laird ($7,000)
• Has shot 68 or better eight times at Silverado over his last 24 competitive rounds at the course
• Played competitively for the first time since the restart on the Korn Ferry Tour last week, finishing 65th overall but 25th in birdies made and ranked out seventh in driving accuracy and 30th in driving distance
• Has some of biggest positive poa putting splits in the field (see above) and an overall great West Coast record (owns top 10s at Phoenix, Riveira and Torrey Pines)
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