Geoff Ulrich brings you his PGA DFS analysis for DraftKings and Fanduel for the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek with free picks based off Awesemo’s grades and projections.
The second stop on the Vegas swing takes us out to one of the most exclusive spots in Sin City as Shadow Creek makes its debut as a host venue on the PGA Tour. A pure man-made wonder of the world, Shadow Creek sits in the middle of the Vegas desert, surrounded by houses and human habitats but contains 18 holes of tree-lined fairways with creeks and water hazards that would likely make you think you were deep in the heart of America’s South. The venue was financed by Hotelier Steven Wynn and was arguably the most exclusive club in America for some time, before the course was eventually sold and it opened up to MGM guests for $500 a pop.
The venue itself was designed by Tom Fazio (Conway Farms, Quail Hollow redesign) and sets up as a traditional par 72 with four par 5’s and plays to a yardage of 7,520 yards. The scorecard matches it nicely with some of the other classic par-72 designs on Tour, such as Quail Hollow and Augusta National, and by all accounts Shadow Creek is worthy of being mentioned in that grouping. The course has plenty of elevation changes and nuances, like shortly cut runoffs on the greens that will likely keep players on their toes all week. The bentgrass putting surfaces here are likely to be cut short and have been described as undulating and fast by some pros already, so expect good around-the-green play and putting to matter. Like Augusta National, fairways should be generous with lots of landing spots, but distance and good iron will likely play a large role given the toughness and firmness of the greens.
Shadow Creek Stats and Info
• Five par 4’s that measure between 450 and 500 yards making efficiency on holes of these length something to consider
• Faster bentgrass greens in play with water that also comes into play on nine of the 18 holes
• Plenty of doglegs also on course (on nine of 18 holes) should put emphasis on good tee-to-green play this week, and we should expect lower green-in-regulation percentages than we’ve seen last couple of events
Putting Splits
The greens at Shadow Creek are listed as primarily bentgrass. This makes them at least a little similar to last week’s in terms of grass type, although the greens at Shadow Creek should play much faster and have more undulation. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst bentgrass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Jordan Spieth: +39 on bentgrass, +14 on all other surfaces
2. Justin Rose: +33 on bentgrass, +10 on all other surfaces
3. Alex Noren: +33 on bentgrass, +5 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Tommy Fleetwood: -12 on bentgrass, +8 on all other surfaces
2. Louis Oosthuizen: -5 on bentgrass, +25 on all other surfaces
3. Brendan Steele: -23 on bentgrass, +5 on all other surfaces
PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Rory McIlroy: Grades: A, Values: D
McIlroy comes into this event off a solid start at the U.S. Open where he finished eighth. 2020 may not be going too swimmingly for the Northern Irishman on the PGA, but it is sometimes good to put his poor season in perspective. Overall, McIlroy had a win in the fall swing last year at the WGC HSBC Champions and started 2020 with four top-five finishes in a row on the tough West Coast swing. Baby concerns and a slow start back after COVID slowed his game, but he still ended the season with zero missed cuts and 12th and eighth finishes in the final two FedEx Cup playoff events. His game really started to come around at the U.S. Open too as he demolished Winged Foot off the tee, gaining 5.8 strokes off the tee there for the week and also gaining over a stroke around the green and putting. For this week, you have to think his off the tee play is going to set him up better than pretty much everyone else on the longer doglegs, so even a slight uptick in his approach game should get him into contention. He ranks out third in point projections on Awesemo, just under Justin Thomas, whose ball striking was fading the last couple events prior to the break. All things considered, I’d rather side with McIlroy after that confidence building last start, especially with the longer par 72 in play.
The Stats:
• Third in shots gained off the tee and sixth in shots gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds in this field
• Has now gained strokes around the green in three straight events and gained multiple strokes putting on the fast greens at Winged Foot
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.3%| FanDuel: 19%
Joaquin Niemann: Grades: C, Values: B
Niemann had a terrific weekend at the Shriners, shooting 67 and 66 to move his way into 13th position. The 21-year-old has come through with two solid finishes thus far on the new season, as he also landed a 23rd at the U.S. Open, a finish which marked his best ever in a major championship. A lot of what he accomplished at Winged Foot could be attributed to an atrociously hot putter, which saw him rank in fourth in shots gained putting there for the week. He certainly rebounded nicely with the ball striking at the Shriners, where he gained 3.6 strokes off the tee. Like many of the explosive young players now on Tour, Niemann seems to be finding a new level of consistency to his game, and he comes into this week ranked 13th in shots gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds. What should get you excited here though is how he rates out as a DFS play. Awesemo’s projections have him rated as the best value play in the $7,000 range here and also with the best pure points projection and top-six percentage of anyone in that range as well. In short, he’s just a solid play regardless of format this week and a good value to take advantage if you’re OK with absorbing a little ownership into your roster.
The Stats:
• Has gained a stroke or more off the tee now in four straight starts and gained multiple strokes with his putter in each of his two 2020-21 starts
• Recent tied for third at the BMW Championship against a similar field should give him confidence here; room for improvement off his last two starts, as he lost strokes on approach in both those events despite solid finishes
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.8%| FanDuel: 14%
Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier
Jason Day
Day made a start last week at the Shriners, although he clearly wasn’t carrying his best stuff. The Aussie flamed out quickly after two rounds, losing over a stroke putting on Friday to seal his fate rather easily. Day was likely at TPC Summerlin just to shake off a little rust though, and it was good to see that his off the tee game looked in fine form as the Aussie gained 2.6 strokes off the tee for the two rounds and hit a healthy 71% of fairways. While the rest of his game didn’t shine, it didn’t look as awkwardly bad as, say, Rickie Fowler’s irons, and that makes Day a more intriguing GPP target here for me over the American. The 2015 PGA Champion almost always performs well on these longer, tree-lined par 72’s with him having multiple close calls at Augusta over the years and also landing a win at Wells Fargo back in 2019. With DFS players likely ready to forget about him after he fumbled his way to the finish in 2019-20, this event and course could be the spot to get back on the Day train, especially with the added cushion of a no-cut event. At $8,300 on DraftKings this week, his ownership there pairs him with lots of players with far better recent results and should ensure suppressed ownership in big-field GPPs.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 7.3% | FanDuel: 6.6%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Cameron Smith ($6,800)
• Another player who played last week at TPC Summerlin, which could be a huge advantage given altitude and climate staying the same this week.
• Still struggling off the tee but building confidence everywhere else, including around and on the greens
• Has handled tricky green complexes like Augusta and WGC Mexico well before and could have advantage given Shadow Creek’s notoriously tough greens
Marc Leishman ($6,800)
• True GPP play as we’re exclusively taking him for his long-term pedigree here vs. short term form.
• Does have a history of bouncing back quickly after some bad stretches though and his lone FedEx Cup playoff win came at Fazio designed Conway Farms
• Upside with him likely greater than anyone in this range IF he bounces back to form
Harry Higgs ($6,300)
• He did play at the Shriners last week, which is a bonus even if he missed the cut since we’re again playing around the same kind of altitude
• Higgs struck the ball decently enough last week for some who missed the cut and has gained strokes off the tee in four straight starts now
• He’s been more consistent than most players in this range and should be viewing this week as a vital opportunity to grab more points against an elite field
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