Against the Grain
Whether it’s your first time reading, or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP strategy and breaks the field down into four price categories. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, that in turn hopefully, can create an edge against the field. Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40k-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going “against the grain” with some players and pairing them with the right chalk. Now, these picks are meant only for Game Theory plays, and may not ultimately in my player pool.
Sticking true to my golf theme, the Against the Grain comes from a term used when putting against the way the grass is cut and adds an element of unpredictability typically to a putt.
Quick Recap of last week:
Another really solid week for both parties, and although rare I was able to eclipse them by 2% points last week.
- Awesemo- 89
Pretty mediocre at best week for the against the grain “picks” as Koepka underperformed. Jason Day was the best mentioned.
Player Focus This week:
Well, we had our regular five guys above 10K before JT withdrew, and that took away some edge on DJ and Rory for sure. All four will get over 10%, but it looks like Tiger will be the lowest owned of the four. I have a hard time believing that, but DK pricing him above those other three is going to be a tough pill to swallow for must gamers.
Brooks will be the highest owned of the bunch and could eclipse the numbers we saw over the last couple of majors/milly maker winning lineups. Hopefully, that will end up going higher and removing some ownership from Rory and Dustin by the time lock comes.
Top Play ATG Play:
The play is Tiger…I think DJ goes under-owned in the single entry/three entry/ limited entry tournaments.
Tommy Fleetwood for the first big tournament of the year is priced appropriately, and thus, we have an evenly spread ownership across the star players in this range. Eight golfers will all be owned between 15-20% including Rahm/Fowler/Fleetwood/Rose/Kuchar/Casey/Schauffele & Lastly Finau. The next four Cantlay//Matsuyama/Day/Scott isn’t too far behind, likely in the 10-15% range. That leaves us with six clear cut against the grain plays that all should come under 10% owned. They are:
Top ATG Play:
For the millionaire maker, it’s my guess at LEAST one if not two of them will be on the winning lineup. Dechambeau Molinari stack sounds interesting. Not entirely sure where the other four golfers games are at this point.
If you (meaning me) are being honest with yourself(myself) I’m obviously going to play a 5% owned Jordan Spieth in the millionaire maker. The thought of winning a million bucks with him on my lineup is way too good to pass up.
Common names lead this group of players in terms of ownership, as eight golfers are likely to see close, if not over 10% ownership this week. Leading the way is Gary Woodland and Sergio Garcia, followed by a pair 7600 golfers in Poulter and Simpson. Because they are priced identically, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them as a popular stack. People are inherently lazy after all right?
Then comes Henrik Stenson, who I gave a little bit too much respect to last week, so maybe he’ll come in a bit lower while Kokrak and Glover will put their popularity to the test this week. That should do it for golfers owned over 10%, but there are a couple of honorable mentions like Kieth Mitchell, Louis Oosthuizen and Kevin Kisner that could end up getting close to 10% ownership come Thursday morning.
That leaves us with 20+ golfers there are going to be under 10%, and likely 15+ owned under 5% including:
- Thomas Pieters
- Pat Perez
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Haotong Li
- Alex Noren
- Lucas Bjreegaard
Top ATG Play:
I’ll repeat my statement from the previous price group, one of the golfers listed above will be on the winning millionaire maker lineup. This is much bolder than the last call.
Only one golfer is going to get even close to 10% this week, and that’s Scott Piercy. He made precisely zero bogey’s last week and is made for this type of championship, more U.S. Open than PGA. He’ll get over 10% in most contests. Other golfers that may get close to 5%, not even 10, are Luke List Matt Wallace Daniel Berger & Julian Suri. C.T. Pan and Eddie Pepperell are two exciting names that are super consistent off the tee and are very good around the greens. Could be a great spot for them to surprise.
Make sure to check out my entire player pool in The Winning Element out around 5:00 pm tomorrow!
Then join @jazzrazz and I tomorrow night for our new style PGA Show! At 9:00 Pm!
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