PGA DFS Picks Expert Data & Analysis AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. In each category, I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests. This week we’re focusing on the AT&T Pebble Beach.

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AT&T Pebble Beach PGA DFS Data & Picks

Recent Form

We’ll use the last 11 tournaments, including the RSM Classic, to complete our dataset this week. Sixteen golfers have competed six times over these tournament weeks, and without Sungjae Im, no one has played every week.

With Dustin Johnson dropping out of the field this week, it leaves just four golfers with multiple top-10s in the last 12 weeks: Patton Kizzire, Daniel Berger, Paul Casey and Francesco Molinari. Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay and Jim Furyk are all 1-for-2, having only competed twice since the RSM Classic.

The top-25 rate of the field this week is a bit better than the top-10 rate, as 27 golfers have multiple top-25s in this dataset, including Berger, Casey, Rory Sabbatini, Henrik Norlander, Chris Kirk, Cameron Tringale, Michael Thompson, Bo Hoag, Max Homa, Luke List, Kyle Stanley, Sam Burns, Matthew NeSmith, Peter Malnati, Doug Ghim, Andrew Putnam, Si Woo Kim and Will Zalatoris.

Seven golfers will put their streak of 100% made cuts on the line this week (minimum of three starts required for this): Matt Jones, Wyndham Clark, Kizzire, Tringale, Homa, Casey and Zalatoris.

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Course History at The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

With no amateurs and no fans this year, the feel of this tournament will certainly be different. As for the golfers playing this week, three of the biggest names hold the best history here. Spieth, Jason Day and Phil Mickelson lead the pack; Day has five top-10s since 2014, while Spieth and Mickelson have four. Day is the only one to miss a cut in the last seven years (all the way back in 2014), Spieth is 7-for-7, and Mickelson is 6-for-6.

Only one other golfer in the field has more than two top-10s here since 2014: Kevin Streelman. He hasn’t finished worse than 17th since 2016 and is working off of three straight top-10s. Eleven others in the field have two top-10s, including Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor, Jones, Casey and Berger.

Spieth, Casey, Cantlay, Mickelson, Scott Piercy and Joel Dahmen are the only ones who have come to Pebble more than three times in the past seven years and made the weekend in all of them.

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Strokes Gained

Strokes gained is the best metric by which to measure and predict the tour for PGA DFS purposes. This is where we make our money on DraftKings and FanDuel. Strokes gained can primarily be broken down into four categories: Off the tee, on the approach, around the green and putting. For this review, we are foregoing other categories such as strokes gained ball striking (which combines strokes gained off the tee and on approach) or short game (which combines around-the-green and putting data).

For more strokes gained information, check out Awesemo’s Strokes Gained Tool, which has all of this information and more for both DraftKings and FanDuel PGA DFS contests! Click Here.

I am going back 27 weeks, which should include roughly 20-25 tournaments.

Strokes Gained off the Tee

Among those in this dataset with at least five starts, Ryan Brehm, Josh Teater, Zalatoris, Molinari, Casey, Burns, Cantlay and List lead all golfers in percentage of starts gaining strokes off the tee. Jhonattan Vegas, Ryan Moore, Cameron Davis, Norlander and Day, while a hair behind the rest, have also each gained in over 80% of starts.

Strokes Gained on the Approach

Nesmith has continued his impressive iron play. He’s gained strokes in 16 of 18 starts, but he also holds one of the best percentages of starts in which he has gained at least 1, at 33%. The few that did better were Norlander, Malnati and Homa, among those golfers that have over 10 starts.

Strokes Gained Around the Green

Kirk pops up here, gaining strokes around the green in nine of his 11 starts. Other golfers that are able to do the same in at least 70% of their starts include Rickie Fowler, Spieth and Day.

Strokes Gained Putting

Getting hot with the putter is always important, and no one does it better than Berger; he has gained over a stroke seven times in 14 starts. Others that have done in at least 30% of their starts include Patrick Rodgers, Hoag, Kizzire and Sabbatini.

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Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis

Before strokes gained statistics were invented, the focus was on data like greens in regulation and driving distance/accuracy. The old standards can still help develop a player’s profile further, helping us identify potential strengths and weaknesses. I’ve chosen my five favorite old-school statistics for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Four of these will come from a corollary statistic to the strokes gained category, and we will add one additional scoring statistic. I’ve listed each golfer along with their ranking in the statistical category.

Total Driving

Berger (5), Casey (11), Vegas (16), Cantlay (22), Brendan Steele (24)

Greens in Regulation

Cantlay (2), Furyk (3), Casey (11), James Hahn (12), Nick Watney (21), Branden Grace (22)

Around the Green Proximity:

Rob Oppenheim (3), Steele (9) Jason Dufner (9), Malnati (12), Seamus Power (13)

Total Putting

Putnam (1), Denny McCarthy, (2) Beau Hossler (4), Rodgers (6), Clark (11), Troy Merritt (13)

Bogey Avoidance

Russell Knox (12), Brice Garnett (16), Cameron Percy (20), Cantlay (20), Tringale (23)

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Data-Driven PGA DFS picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

I know that was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide a trio of names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four sections we reviewed and make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Patrick Cantlay (shows up in all four)
Daniel Berger (shows up in all four)
Paul Casey (shows up in all four)

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].