PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests in each category. This week we’re focusing on the WGC Workday.
WGC Workday PGA DFS Data and Picks
Recent Form
We’ll use the last 11 tournaments to complete our dataset this week.
Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland will lead off this category again, as they added to their impressive resume as of late with yet another top-10 last week. Jon Rahm was able to pick up his third top-10 in this dataset, joining Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Daniel Berger, Collin Morikawa, Harris English and Bernd Wiesberger.
Morikawa and English are the only two golfers from above that do not have at least four top-25s, while Patrick Cantlay, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Max Homa and Robert MacIntyre join them with at least four-top 25s in this dataset.
On the flip side of things, five shocking names will be looking for their first top-25 in this dataset: Jason Kokrak, Shane Lowry, Matthew Wolff
Cameron Champ and Matt Kuchar. If I were a betting man, I would bet that one of these five will buck that trend this week.
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
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Strokes Gained
Strokes gained is the best metric by which to measure and predict the tour for PGA DFS purposes. This is where we make our money on DraftKings and FanDuel. Strokes gained can primarily be broken down into four categories: Off the tee, on the approach, around the green, and putting. For this review, we are foregoing other categories such as strokes gained ball striking (which combines strokes gained off the tee and on approach) or short game (which combines around-the-green and putting data).
I am going back 27 weeks, which should include roughly 20 to 25 tournaments.
For more strokes gained information, check out Awesemo’s Strokes Gained Tool, which has all of this information and more for both DraftKings and FanDuel PGA DFS contests! Click Here.
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
It’s beginning to be a theme this week that golfers that can drive over 310 yards will have quite an advantage. There’s only a handful of golfers that possess that talent and gain strokes off the tee at a higher-than-normal rate. Leading the field in starts with at least 1 stroke gained off the tee is, of course, Bryson DeChambeau. He has done it in eight of 15 starts, good enough for 53%. Rahm, Champ, Bubba Watson and Sergio Garcia are the only others that have done it in at least 30% of their starts, and none are close to DeChambeau.
Three more have done this in at least 20% of their starts: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Schauffele.
Strokes Gained On Approach
For only the second time in his last 16 starts, Justin Thomas lost strokes on the approach. In fact, he lost in every category last week at the Genesis, showing that his off-the-field matters are mattering on the field. Will Zalatoris has only lost strokes on the approach one time in seven starts, while Hatton, Rahm and Cantlay have all been able to gain strokes off the tee in at least 80% of their starts.
Strokes Gained Around the Green
Thomas also lost strokes around the green for only the third time in his last 16 starts. His 81% gain rate is still the highest on tour. Cantlay is narrowly behind him, gaining strokes around the green in 12 of 15 starts. Lowry, English, Mackenzie Hughes, Jason Day, Kevin Na and Tommy Fleetwood all gained strokes around the green in at least 70% of their starts.
Strokes Gained Putting
No-cut events are all about who can score the most DFS points. Having the ability to get hot with the putter certainly helps that. Eighteen of the golfers in the field have gained at least 2 strokes putting in a single start, and only two golfers have gained over 3: Patrick Reed and Lanto Griffin. While they may have gotten the hottest with their putter, Hughes and DeChambeau can get hot more often than others, having gained at least 1 stroke in over 50% of their starts.
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis
Before strokes gained statistics were invented, the focus was on data like greens in regulation and driving distance/accuracy. The old standards can still help develop a player’s profile further, helping us identify potential strengths and weaknesses. I’ve chosen my five favorite old-school statistics for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Four of these will come from a corollary statistic to the strokes gained category. I’ve listed each golfer along with their ranking in the statistical category.
Driving Distance
Garcia (1), Watson (2), Champ (3) McIlroy (4), DeChambeau (5), Thomas (6), Rahm (8)
Scrambling 10 to 20 Yards
Webb Simpson (4), Schauffele (7), Matt Kuchar (7), Marc Leishman (12), Wiesberger (12)
Putting 15 to 20 Feet
Justin Rose (3), Gary Woodland (6), McIlroy (7), Thomas (8), Scottie Scheffler (13)
Birdie or Better
Simpson (1), Thomas (2), Cantlay (3), Scheffler (4), McIlroy (5), Hatton (6)
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Data-Driven PGA DFS Picks for WGC Workday
I know that was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide a trio of names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four(three this week) sections. These should make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Only a few golfers show up in all three categories: Rahm, Schauffele, Hatton.
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