PGA DFS Picks: WGC Fedex St. Jude Inivitatonal, DraftKings + FanDuel

The return to some normalcy is likely going to be a gradual process rather than a sprint. Being able to sit down and write this article every Sunday sets my entire PGA DFS week. This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, breaking down the best PGA DFS picks and everything you need to know for The WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve simply forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:

Tournament Intro
Course Breakdown and DFS Sweatsheet
Player Preview
Statistical Preview

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PGA DFS Tournament & Intro: WGC FedEx St. Jude Classic

For the first time in almost five months, we have a no-cut event. It’ll be a nice change of pace in terms of not having to worry about all four of your golfers getting through the cut, but to that degree, it takes out an implied edge the PGA DFS game has, the 36-hole cut, where you can either gain a significant leg on the field or of course, fall victim to the cut sweat. This specific WGC event is a new one the Tour introduced two years back when they renewed their deal with FedEx. Part of that deal was to turn this tournament here, usually the Fed Ex St.Jude Classic, into a primer event to bring the best players from around the world to play. It was becoming a forgotten event with the packed summer schedule, so this made sense for all parties involved.

Before this event became a WGC the St. Jude Classic, it had been around since the ’50s, starting as the Memphis Open. It moved to the current course TPC Southwind in 1989, so we have over 30 years of tournament history, which makes it easy to attain. Let’s dig into TPC Southwi0nd.

Tournament Format

As mentioned above, this is a no-cut event. There are 78 players in the field, mirroring the ones we saw over the same at the ZoZo Championship, CJ Cup and the WGC-HSBC Champions.

Course Commentary: TPC Southwind

Course Profile

Par and Yardage

Par 70: 7,240 yards

Course Difficulty 2019 and 2020 (To Be Updated Monday Afternoon)

25/49: -.496 or 69.504

Hole Dispersion

Four Par 3s: 196, 171, 162, 239
12 Par 4s: 434, 401, 485, 445, 482, 457, 465, 406, 472, 395, 490, 453
two Par 5s: 554, 530

Grass Types & Hazards (if available)

Grass Type: Bermuda
Average Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
Water Hazards: 11
Bunkers: 76

Designer

Ron Prichard

Facts and Figures (2019 )

Off the Tee: Under 60% of the fairways are hit from the tee with an average drive just over 290 yards. Both are average, slightly leaning to the harder side of courses on Tour.
Approach to the green: Shorter drivers and lower number of fairways hit means fewer greens in regulation. It averaged about 62% of greens hit for the week last year.
Around the Green: The nice part about when a golfer missed the green here last year, the green complexes aren’t difficult. It ranked 12th easiest in terms of scrambling percentage at 61% of the time a golfer got up a down.
On the Green: Once on the green, they were some of the easiest to putt on last year.

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PGA DFS Sweatsheet and Commentary

With only two par 5s on the course and both reachable in two, it’s no surprise to see them combined for about a third of the DraftKings scoring for the week. The easiest chance for a streak is holes one through three for a combined 25% of the scoring in just those three holes. If they decide to split the tees, I think there is a slight edge to golfers starting on 10 instead of starting on one and having to play the holes first.

Player Preview

The Expected Top 30 Players in the Field by OWGR and Corresponding Odds, Salaries. (Updated Monday p.m. with Odds and Newest OWGR Ranking)

Where in the world is Adam Scott? He, Tiger Woods and Justin Rose are the only golfers in the top 30 in the world not here to compete this week, but all are scheduled to be in next week’s PGA Championship. It’s also nice that we get four rounds of analysis on every golfer paying this week leading up to next week’s major.

Previous Winners and Cutline

2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
2017: Daniel Berger (-10)
2016: Daniel Berger (-13)
2015: Fabian Gomez (-13)

Statistical Comparison for Picks

Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance: Koepka and Johnson are certainly bombers, and Berger is no slouch off the tee either. With under 60% of the fairways being hit, I think I’d lean distance here.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis: Each of the winners at TPC Southwind in the last four years has gained at least one stroke off the tee on average. Gomez, the winner in 2015, came close as well, gaining .8877.
Putting; How good do they need to be here?: Koepka has been known to get hot with his putter, but I wouldn’t consider him necessarily a great putter. When Johnson won in ’18, he was 12th for the week in shots gained putting, while Berger was 44th and 19th in his two wins. All in all, I don’t think players have to be a good putter to win here, but against the best in the world, yeah, they won’t be able to get away with a cold putter this week