The PGA Tour now heads to Arizona for the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open. PGA DFS has a full slate of high-end GPP plays available for the tournament. Below are some of my favorite PGA DFS optimizer picks of the week for both DraftKings and FanDuel. These PGA DFS picks are based on Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool. This tool was designed by Alex “Awesemo” Baker to provide leverage scores for each golfer in the field based on their ownership, salary and the player’s chances of finishing inside the top six or winning the tournament. These picks combined with the site’s daily fantasy golf picks, projections and analysis should help with lineup construction.
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PGA Leverage Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open
After two straight weeks of tournaments that featured multiple courses, we finally get back to standard DFS golf this week at the Phoenix Open. TPC Scottsdale (par 71, 7,261 yards) is the only course these 132 golfers will play this week in Arizona, and following the first two rounds, there will be a top-65 and ties cutline.
Russell Henley
Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 2.4%, FanDuel: 2.8%
With a missed cut in his last start, Henley is slated to carry very low ownerships for the Phoenix Open. He has been made the weekend in 10 of his last 12 events and gained strokes on approach in 14 of his past 15. Also, Henley has been efficient on par 4’s, ranking seventh in strokes gained on par 4’s and eighth in strokes gained on par 4’s ranging from 450-500 yards over his last 12 rounds. This specific distance of hole is important this week, considering that six of the 11 par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale fall in this range. Last year, during his win here, Webb Simpson led his field in strokes gained on these particular par 4’s.
Plus, the greens at TPC Scottsdale are Bermuda grass, which is Henley’s preferred putting surface. In his last six appearances at venues with Bermuda, Henley has made four cuts and finished inside the top 11 three times. His career record at the Phoenix Open is hit or miss (4-for-8), but Henley has recorded a pair of top-20s here over the past four years. His DFS salaries have dropped substantially since his last time out, and Henley is an optimal way to gain leverage in GPPs.
Sam Ryder
Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.1%, FanDuel 1.2%
Ryder was stellar at the Farmers Open last week, ranking fifth in strokes gained tee to green, 11th in strokes gained off the tee and first in strokes gained on approach. Only Rory McIlroy stuck more greens at Torrey Pines than Ryder, and the 10th-place finish was his second made cut in a row. If we compare all of this week’s golfers last eight rounds, Ryder ranks first in greens in regulation, fifth in strokes gained on approach, 17th in driving distance, 10th in ball striking and 10th in bogeys avoided.
Bermuda is the only cut of grass he presents positive splits on, and Ryder has made it to the weekend the past two years at the Phoenix Open. In this type of form, there is no way Ryder should be this cheap on both sites, and clearly people haven’t noticed how well he has been playing considering he is projected for minimal ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel via Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool.
Keegan Bradley
Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.8%, FanDuel: 2.6%
With back-to-back missed cuts in his game log, very few will be rostering Bradley this week. His volatility is going to scare most off, but with a strong course resume under his belt, he is the type of risk we should be taking in GPPs to set ourselves apart. He is 7-for-9 here in Scottsdale with four top-25s. Bradley hasn’t missed a cut here in three years, and regardless of the fact he is coming off two straight missed weekends, Bradley’s ball striking has been very encouraging.
When we analyze all of these player’s last 12 rounds, no golfer has gained more strokes when approaching the green than Bradley. Additionally over this time, Bradley is eighth in strokes gained tee to green, second in ball striking and sixth in fairways gained. Per usual, it has been his putting that has been holding him back (129th in strokes gained putting in last 12 rounds), but you don’t need to be the greatest player in the world on the greens to contend at TPC Scottsdale. Bradley actually gained strokes with his flat stick in three of his four rounds here a year ago, and he sports a top-10Awesemo leverage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Adam Hadwin
Awesemo PGA Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.4%, FanDuel: 0.4%
Hadwin hit a rough patch to close out the fall, failing to make three consecutive cuts, but he has rebounded nicely in 2021 with two made cuts in a row to start the year. First, he finished 32nd at the American Express, and then Hadwin followed this up with an 18th last weekend at the Farmers Open. He ended the week fourth in strokes gained on the par 4’s at Torrey Pines, and he now ranks second in strokes gained on par 4’s across his last eight rounds.
Hadwin will now look to maintain this great form at TPC Scottsdale, where he has made every cut since 2016. He has two top-20s at this track and isn’t expected to gain much attention at all in GPPs.
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