For the second consecutive week, the PGA Tour will be hosting an event in California, this time for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open. PGA DFS has a full slate of high-end GPP plays available for the tournament. Below are some of my favorite PGA DFS optimizer picks of the week for both DraftKings and FanDuel. These PGA DFS picks are based on Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool. This tool was designed by Alex “Awesemo” Baker to provide leverage scores for each golfer in the field based on their ownership, salary and the player’s chances of finishing inside the top six or winning the tournament. These picks combined with the site’s daily fantasy golf picks, projections and analysis should help with lineup construction.
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PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Leverage Picks | Jan. 26
The Farmers Insurance Open is similar to last week’s American Express in that both PGA events feature multiple courses. To start this week, every golfer in the 154-player field will play a round at the North (par 72, 7,258 yards) and South Courses (par 72, 7,765 yards) of Torrey Pines in San Diego, barring a withdrawal or disqualification. Then, following a normal top 65 and ties cutline, the final two rounds of the Farmers will be held exclusively at the South Course. With three of the four rounds playing on this track, we need to primarily concentrate on the lengthy South Course and its poa greens.
Patrick Reed
Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings 5.1%, FanDuel: -4.2%
Reed missed the cut at the American Express last week, but had made 14 in a row prior to that outlier. During that stretch, the 2018 Masters Champion carded a notable nine top-20 finishes. Via Awesemo’s projections, that one missed weekend is expected to depress Reed’s ownership on DraftKings this week to under 10%. This creates an awesome leverage opportunity for the 11th ranked golfer in the world, who finished sixth at Torrey Pines last season.
Last year was Reed’s third consecutive top-25 at the Farmers, and he ranks fourth in total strokes gained over his last 100 rounds on par 72s. He is a less appealing target on FanDuel due to a higher projected ownership, but on DraftKings Reed is arguably the best among available PGA DFS picks.
Luke List
Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.3%, FanDuel: 0.9%
Last week at the American Express, List found some serious life in his golf game, shooting under par in three of his four rounds in La Quinta. During the 21st-place finish, List ranked ninth in both strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained on approach. List positively produced strokes in every major strokes gained stat outside of putting, a huge rebound for him after missing four weekends in a row. Work on the greens has always been his downfall, but List will be transferring from Bermuda to poa greens this week, which is huge news for the bomber.
Based on his career splits, poa is by far his top surface of choice, and List has made four of six cuts here at Torrey Pines. His best Farmers finish came just two short years ago, when he carded a 12th, and List ranks 14th in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds at venues that present poa greens. If he can carry over the momentum from last week with his top-notch ball striking, List could get a top-25 at very low ownerships on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
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Ryan Brehm
Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 0.9%, FanDuel: 0.9%
If you want to go deep in the player pool for a cheap sleeper this week, Brehm is your man. Very quietly, Brehm has made five of his six most recent cuts, with three finishes of 31st or better over this span. Being able to hit it a mile off the tee is ideal for the South Course, and Brehm ranks third in driving distance when he we compare all of these golfers’ last 12 rounds.
Brehm has made the cut at the Farmers Open in both of his two tries, and he has been playing on the weekend in eight of his past 10 appearances on par 72s. Brehm is essentially minimum priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has a legitimate chance of providing us four rounds of golf this week, which is all we can ask for from a player this cheap. Brehm fits into everything, making him an integral play among our PGA optimizer picks this week on both sites.
Brandt Snedeker
Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.6%, FanDuel: 2.6%
Snedeker has been sent home early in his last three starts, but his return to Torrey Pines is exactly what the doctor ordered. The world-class putter has only missed two cuts at the Farmers in 14 attempts. Furthermore, his course resume in San Diego includes an impressive eight top-10s and two wins. The primary reason for Snedeker’s success at Torrey Pines has been the poa greens.
Over his last 50 rounds on this type of grass, Snedeker ranks first in strokes gained putting. Also, since the start of 2019, Snedeker has proceeded to the weekend 77% of the time he has competed on poa. This is the cheapest he has ever been for a Farmers Open on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and while most will, I think it would be foolish to overlook Snedeker this week.
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