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The Winning Element: PGA DFS Optimizer Picks & Projections for 2022 Valspar Championship DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Jason Rouslin

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All of the PGA DFS content and fantasy golf picks this week are geared toward providing information that will help with DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf, PGA odds and betting predictions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA fantasy picks material for DraftKings and FanDuel at the 2022 Valspar Championship.

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PGA DFS Golf Picks: 2022 Valspar Championship

This column will include 6 to 12 players as part of the core, which earns my highest allocation on DFS and is matched with bets across the board. It’s been some time since all three of my favorite golfers, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa ($10,700), failed to make it to the third round. Morikawa was unable to play well in the worst of the conditions, Spieth looked like he could not have cared less to be at the “biggest” PGA Tour event of the year, and Cantlay absolutely cannot figure out TPC Sawgrass. This week, at a place where both Cantlay and Spieth have played well at in the past, they turn their knowledge and experience over to Morikawa as the only one of three that are playing at Copperhead. After Morikawa burned many last week — and Viktor Hovland ($10,800) didn’t and becomes the chalk of the week — he Morikawa is only projected with 17% ownership, compared to Hovland’s 30% and above. Morikawa will be my highest-owned golfer.

PGA Weather Forecast

A week after the weather wreaked havoc in Northeast Florida, there are a solid two days in store in Palm Harbor. The same weather system that Jacksonville had is coming through, but temps aren’t nearly as low and wind is all but gone. The course is no more than two miles from the Gulf of Mexico, so winds coming off typically set in in the afternoon. Things will spruce up a bit Friday afternoon with warmer temperatures coming into the area.

PGA DFS Slate Preview

Total expected player pool: 74

Expected number of lineups created: 450

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free golf betting picks for the 2022 Valspar Championship.

Valspar Championship Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

These golfers will have anywhere between 20% and 50% allocation.

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With Hovland playing some of the best golf in the world over the past four or five months and having a solid start here last year (third-place finish), it’s no surprise to see him projected to be over 30% owned. Also, with Justin Thomas’ ($11,000) mild success here and consistent golf this year, he’s getting quite a few looks as well. Both of them profile a bit better here over the other two studs above $10,000: Dustin Johnson ($10,200) and Xander Schauffele ($10,300). I don’t really have a strong take on any of them, but with being overweight in Morikawa this week, I likely won’t get overweight on any of the other four here, matching the field’s projecting percentage for GPP contests.

Abraham Ancer ($9,300 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel)

With no top-25s on his card this year, Ancer is in a bit of a slump right now. But there are some solid signs that could be coming to an end soon, starting with last week, where he was positive in all four strokes gained categories. While he failed to gain more than three strokes in any of the categories, it at least shows signs that he could be rounding into form as the first major of the year approaches. He has solid success here at this event in his two trips, coming in the top 16 in both of them, including a fifth-place finish last year. Lastly, his ownership is relatively mild at around 10%.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel/$25 Yahoo)

It’s been quite some time since this once heralded golfer from England has been in the winner’s circle. In fact, it is almost three years since Fleetwood’s last win. He’s had plenty of solid finishes in the meantime, but he is on the verge of slipping out of the top 50 in the OWGR. However, there have been a few very solid signs over the past two weeks. After starting his Florida swing off with a lousy performance at the Honda Classic and missing the cut, Fleetwood has found a grove the last two weeks, coming in the top 25 in each of them. He did it differently in both starts, gaining over six strokes with his putter at the Arnold Palmer and gaining almost eight strokes tee to green last week at the Players. Adding up the strokes gained total, it’s very close to winning numbers. He’s never come to Copperhead before, but with a premium on hitting fairways and being a good scrambler, Fleetwood should find a good fit here this week. He also is projected to be about 5% owned on DraftKings.

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Alex Noren ($8,700 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel)

Since his last win, which came all the way back in 2018 at the HNA Open de France, Noren fell drastically from the top 10 in the world to just over 104 heading into last year’s Valspar Championship. But he has had a very solid stretch of golf since the British Open, coming in the top 27 nine times in the last 15 starts and missing just cuts. That’s a relatively solid ratio. He’s on a stretch of five straight made cuts on the PGA Tour dating back to the Farmers, and he has come in the top six in two of his last four appearances. Though he is typically a solid putter, that failed him last week, but he had a breakout performance with his irons to gain over five strokes for the tournament. If he can wake the putter up and find a few more fairways than last week, Noren should be able to negate any regression in the hot iron play. If his irons don’t regress, he’s in line for a top 10 or better here.

This next batch is tough because all of the following grades out well but are projected to be over 10% owned this week. My favorites are (in order of salary):

  • Keegan Bradley
  • Webb Simpson
  • Russell Knox
  • Adam Hadwin
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout

With the $6,000 range being rather weak, I’ll likely get at least one of these golfers in most of my lineups.

Kevin Streelman ($7,700/DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

It has been a rough start to the season for Streelman, who’s missed four cuts in just seven starts since the first of the year. But signs of improvement are heading his way, as he’s come in the top 25 twice in the last three weeks and missed the cut on the number at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This course is not the best setup for him, but Copperhead certainly has been in the past. It’s been nine years since his win here in 2013, and his more recent form at the course is not good. But if looking at those results, each of them came in the midst of bad form, whereas this year he has two top-22s in three weeks. Streelman’s form is trending in the right direction, and his ownership is expected to be less than 5% this week.

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Fantasy Golf Picks: $7,500 or less

There’s only one golfer that will get near 20% ownership/allocation this week. The field thins out rather quickly at the decreasing price levels.

Matthias Schwab ($7,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)

Coming off of back-to-back seventh-place finishes while riding a hot putter, confidence is high for Schwab. He is not all unfamiliar with golf here in the states, having attended Vanderbilt University, where he was a two-time All-American. His professional route has been a bit volatile, making his way on the DP World Tour. While he never lot his card in the four years after turning pro in 2018, he never finished better than 17th. Still, his talent level was not the question that typically his putter would be. The year he finished 17th, 2019, his stats resembled a solid ball striker with a mix of distance (89th) and accuracy (64th) off the tee and a sound iron game, ranking 20th in greens in regulation. He earned his PGA Tour card via the Korn Ferry Tour Finals this year and has worked himself into 102nd place in the FedEx Cup Standings after the back-to-back top-10s in his last two events. Another top-10 here this week and he can all but assure himself a spot in the playoffs with the number of events left and a better priority ranking next year. Or he could just win and earn a two-year exemption.

PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ ownership)

E = Equal-Weight to projected ownership

U = Underweight to projected ownership

O = Overweight to projected ownership

  1. Louis Oosthuizen (E to O)
  2. Tyrell Hatton (E)
  3. Shane Lowry (U)
  4. Sam Burns (E)
  5. Jason Kokrak (U)
  6. Matthew Fitzpatrick (U)
  7. Cameron Tringale (U)
  8. Aaron Wise (E)
  9. Lanto Griffin (E to U)
  10. Denny McCarthy (E to U)
  11. Patton Kizzire (E to U)
  12. Troy Merritt (E to U)

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

  1. Brooks Koepka
  2. Jason Day
  3. Bubba Watson
  4. Harold Varner
  5. Doc Redman

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

  1. Gary Woodland
  2. Kevin Kisner
  3. Mackenzie Hughes
  4. Bernd Wiesberger
  5. Brian Harman
  6. Francesco Molinari
  7. Nick Taylor
  8. Mito Pereira
  9. Joel Dahmen
  10. Adam Svensson
  11. Scott Stallings
  12. Carlos Ortiz
  13. Emiliano Grillo
  14. Kramer Hickok
  15. Kurt Kitayama
  16. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

  1. Jhonattan Vegas
  2. C.T. Pan
  3. Matt Kuchar
  4. Pat Perez
  5. J.J. Spaun
  6. Chad Ramey
  7. Stewart Cink
  8. Matthew NeSmith
  9. Adam Long
  10. Greyson Sigg
  11. David Lipsky
  12. Martin Kaymer
  13. Vaughn Taylor
  14. Joseph Bramlett
  15. Matt Wallace
  16. Henrik Stenson
  17. J.T. Poston
  18. Hank Lebioda
  19. Bill Haas
  20. Brandon Wu
  21. Hayden Buckley
  22. Peter Malnati
  23. Stephan Jaeger
  24. Wyndham Clark
  25. Chesson Hadley
  26. Alex Fitzpatrick
  27. Luke Guthrie

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The DraftKings PGA DFS projections for today, the FanDuel PGA DFS showdown projections for today and the PGA DFS ownership projections are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world. FanDuel PGA DFS rankings for today will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. Looking for more DFS PGA Yahoo! picks and DraftKings PGA DFS picks?

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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