Get those alarm clocks ready to go as we say goodbye to the West Coast. The PGA Tour is heading to the east coast, starting their Florida swing with the Honda Classic from PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. That means early PGA DFS lock times and a lot of changes from what we saw in Mexico last week.
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The PGA DFS First Look
For anyone who is new to PGA DFS, this is a public service announcement for the early part of the season: remember we are dealing with the new cut rule of top 65 and ties instead of the top 70 we are used to seeing. That will continuously make going 6-for-6 incredibly elusive and 5-for-6 will have a chance to hang in smaller fields and weeks where only a handful of rosters survive the cut.
The Course
This course is a par 70 measuring around 7,100 yards. It is a difficult test, so do not expect to see any -20 scores this week. The course is littered with bunkers, water and other obstacles which makes it a challenge despite being relatively short in distance. The big reason why this course seems to continuously give players fits is the wind. It seems basically every round played here has wind playing a major role, so as always, keep an eye out to see if one tee time has an advantage over the others with the weather forecast.
The course is going to limit some of the bombers’ advantages off the tee because of all the danger lurking off the fairways. This should force the field to club down and will put a premium on keeping the ball in the fairway. From there, hitting a ton of greens is always important and going to be especially key this week. I will be looking at golfers who are solid tee to green as well as golfers who excel with their approach game. With the change from the west coast to Florida, we say goodbye to poa annua and hello to Bermuda grass on the greens.
This change of greens is important to keep an eye on, as I believe the ability to putt on Bermuda will be one of the more important factors this week. It is also an opportunity for a reset for some guys who may have been struggling over the last few weeks on the poa, and could offer some nice buy-low spots. One last factor I will be looking at is that a ton of players live in Florida with some living right by this course. It is not at the top of my list, but I always give a slight boost to players sleeping in their own beds and having local knowledge of a course.
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The Field
We are back to a full field of players after last week’s WGC non-cut format. This means we will have many options at each price point and the cut will loom large when deciding who to potentially roster. In addition to the change of format, there is also a new flavor at the top with a lot of the big names choosing to take the week off. Tommy Fleetwood tops pricing, followed by Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler to round out the top-three options.
As we work down in salary, we have a range of quality options, including a lot of European players who decided to make the trip over to begin the Florida swing. This is going to make lineup construction feel different than both the Genesis and WGC, as the depth and size of this field isn’t the same.
Weather seems fine, but keep an eye on Slack as we will provide updates and break down the latest info we get as this article is written a few days before lock. Also, make sure to check out the Wednesday night Awesemo.com PGA DFS Show where we will update weather and talk about lineup construction, player pool and take questions from the chat.
Quick Targets
Top-Priced
Tommy Fleetwood $11,600 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuelÂ
Even in somewhat weak fields, it is surprising to see Fleetwood lead off the pricing. There is no doubt he is talented enough, but normally there is another top-end guy to hold that spot and that usually finds Fleetwood in the next batch of players. This week, that isn’t the case and Fleetwood is going to feel overpriced due to this unfamiliar price tag. That will create an interesting situation as I think most people’s initial thought will be to pay down regardless of if they go stars-and-scrubs or balanced.
Fleetwood sets up well for the Honda as he has plenty of experience in Florida and was fourth at this event in 2018. He can and will lean on his ball-striking abilities and in a field like this, he has to be considered a serious threat. Ownership will tell the tale here, but with Koepka and Fowler having question marks of their own, I don’t mind going all the way to the top to start my lines.
Sungjae Im $9,300 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
In that second tier of players, there are some interesting names, including Billy Horschel. Coming off a big showing at the WGC, he is a lightning rod and could be one of the popular plays of the week. Im sits $100 more expensive then Horschel and he also sets up well coming into this Florida swing. He is one of several players looking for that elusive breakthrough win that many think will happen in 2020.
Im last week was middle of the road, finishing 29th, but his short game was the glaring problem. His irons were solid, gaining 2.9 on the approach. Plus, he has shown signs of preferring Bermuda grass, so the putter could heat up. In his lone appearance here last year, Im gained tee to green but was unable to do much with the flat stick, which led to an uneventful 51st-place finish. I expect a massive leap and Im makes for a quality play in any format with his well-rounded game.
Mid-Range
Byeong Hun An $8,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Thursday at the WGC was quite the day for An, as he entered rarefied air and lost 6.5 strokes putting. After those 18 holes, it looked like it might get historic as it was a non-cut and -15 SG: P was in the realm of possibility. An, however, found a groove on the greens and ended up just losing six strokes putting over the 72 holes. Regardless, his ball striking was fantastic and An is one of the best players on tour around the green.
Coming to Bermuda isn’t going to make An a great putter automatically, but the change of surface has to be considered a plus. He has shown better splits with Bermuda, and even if he didn’t, I would want a change of surface after his struggles we have seen recently with poa. The putter is usually the missing link with An as he is a world-class iron player and he can be your second or third man in lineups at this price.
Russell Knox $7,600 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Knox sets up perfectly for this course and that may be a reason why is popular despite some tilting results lately. He comes into this event with two straight missed cuts, but he had made nine straight before that, so overall, it’s been a quality run of golf. We know that Knox excels on shorter layouts and that is why this immediately stands out as a good fit for him.
The course history tells a somewhat confusing story, but when you think about the high variance of a course with this much water, that shouldn’t be too surprising. Knox was second in 2014 and third in 2015, but his last three starts here have resulted in a 51st and a pair of missed cuts. That shows the range of outcomes for anyone regardless of individual course fit. Still, Knox should be able to keep it in play off the tee and rely on the irons to do most of the work. He should find a way through this cut and at a price tag that’s low due to his recent form, he is a quality mid-range PGA DFS play.
Lower-Priced
Bud Cauley $7,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Cauley will not have to rely on distance at this par 70 and gets Bermuda, which is his preferred surface. In addition, he comes into this event with pretty good form with his irons, and most of his issues have come off the tee this season. Given the way this course is set up, some of that can be mitigated and allow Cauley to rely on the strengths of his game which are his irons and play around the green.
Price-wise, Cauley comes in at $7,300, which is more than reasonable when we consider the strength of this field. He was fourth earlier this year at the American Express and the upside is there pending he can stay out of the drink. I like him as a GPP flier who may come in undervalued with his so-so 2020 campaign.
Chesson Hadley $6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
I don’t see a ton in the $6,000 range this week, which can make paying up at the top more difficult. The one benefit on a macro level is the flat-$6,000 golfers aren’t that much worse than the $6,900 guys, so you may be able to save some money in that regard. Either way, at $6,800, Hadley is in an interesting spot and is worth some tournament consideration. Hadley is another guy who prefers the east coast swing and should benefit from not being forced into aggressive plays with the driver.
He is coming off some respectable showings out in California and has gained on the approach in four of five starts in 2020. His scrambling, or lack thereof, is scary, but I don’t mind backing Hadley in the hope he gets hot with the irons, leading to a massive greens-in-regulation number. If that’s the case, it is easy to justify this price tag and he’s a few putts away from another positive showing.
Also Considering – Jason Dufner
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